23 年公司整体业务毛利率为13.94%，同比+2.41pct。分业务来看，三元前驱体收入217 亿元，同比-11.75%，毛利率17.96%，同比+5.36pct；四氧化三钴收入29.6 亿元，毛利率9.65%；镍产品收入33.9 亿元，毛利率8.89%。performance
The company publishes its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 34.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.95%, and realized net profit of 1,947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, and realized non-net profit of 1,587 billion yuan, an increase of 43.13% over the previous year; after splitting into the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 8.083 billion yuan, an increase of 22.19% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 456 million yuan, an increase of 40.21% year on year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 9.292 billion yuan, up 17.58% year on year, net profit of 379 million yuan, up 11.19% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 340 million yuan, up 34.64% year on year. The results are in line with market expectations.
Gross margin has increased, and cost control is excellent
The company's overall business gross margin in '23 was 13.94%, +2.41pct year-on-year. By business, the revenue of the three precursors was 21.7 billion yuan, -11.75% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 17.96%, +5.36pct; the revenue of cobalt tetroxide was 2.96 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 9.65%; and revenue from nickel products was 3.39 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 8.89%.
The company's expense ratio for the 23-year period was 7.6%, +0.8pct. Among them, sales/management/R&D/finance expenses were 0.3%/2.5%/3.1%/1.8%, respectively, +0.1/+0.6/+0.0/+0.1pct. On a quarterly basis, the company's overall gross margin for Q4 in 2023 was 16.45%, +3.32pct, -0.72pct, with a period expense ratio of 10.5%, +1.7pct, and +2.0pct month-on-month. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 0.4%/3.6%/2.9%, respectively, +0.1/+1.2/-0.3/+0.6pct, and +0.1/+0.8pct.
Shipment volume is growing steadily, and overseas production capacity is being built faster
According to the company's annual report, the total sales volume of the company's battery material products in '23 exceeded 270,000 tons, +29% over the same period last year. Among them, shipments of high-nickel and ultra-high nickel three-precursor products exceeded 130,000 tons. Looking ahead to 2024, as a leading three-tier precursor company, the company's production capacity will expand further, while overseas bases in South Korea and Morocco are being built at an accelerated pace to support further growth in the company's product shipments. In terms of profit, overseas customers account for a high proportion of overseas customers and stable processing costs. As the company's operating rate continues to increase, we believe that the company's profitability is expected to continue to increase.
Investment advice
We expect the company's net profit to be 23.54/29.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 2026, respectively, corresponding to 15, 12, and 10 times PE, covering it for the first time and giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Demand for new energy vehicles fell short of expectations; downstream market growth fell short of expectations; raw material prices rose sharply; industry competition intensified; customer expansion fell short of expectations, etc.
