As competition for TopCon intensifies, profits gradually deteriorate, and production capacity increases, the industry urgently needs a new round of technology cycles, and HJT is expected to usher in large-scale production expansion.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that in every cycle of the PV industry, the core driving force is technological iteration — good profitability after the technology matures, driving the industry into a large-scale production expansion stage. With concentrated production capacity, the industry experienced overcapacity & declining profitability, and the industry entered the stage of production capacity clearance, forcing breakthroughs in new technology, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and opening up a new cycle. As competition for TopCon intensifies, profits gradually deteriorate, and production capacity increases, the industry urgently needs a new round of technology cycles, and HJT is expected to usher in large-scale production expansion.
On the cost side, the application of 0BB+ silver coated copper in HJT's non-silicon cost has given HJT a paste advantage. Currently, the equipment investment is about 3-4 billion yuan/GW, which is higher than TopCon's 1.5-170 million yuan/GW. In the future, with the localization of equipment components and the launch of 1GW high-capacity equipment, it is expected to further reduce costs; on the efficiency side, Huasheng's latest mass production efficiency has reached 26%. 210 module power is about 710-720W, and is expected to reach 740W in 2024 with the introduction of new technology. Technological innovation is the core driving force for starting a new cycle in the photovoltaic industry, and HJT is expected to usher in large-scale industrialization as a new technology.
The price of silver rose rapidly due to multiple factors such as supply and demand and risk aversion
Affected by factors such as risk aversion due to increased geopolitical tension, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and tight supply and demand due to increased PV module production schedules, the price of silver has risen rapidly recently. At the beginning of 2024, the price of silver was about 6,000 yuan/kg. As of May 20, 2024, it had already surpassed 8,200 yuan/kg. According to data from the World Silver Association, the total global demand for silver is 35,551 tons in 2023, and the global silver gap is about 4,400 tons; in 2024, driven by a recovery in mineral silver production, the total global supply of silver is expected to be about 31,700 tons, the total demand for silver is expected to be about 36,700 tons, and the gap between supply and demand is about 5,000 tons.
Looking at the demand structure, silver demand is mainly divided into three parts: industrial manufacturing, jewelry silverware, and physical investment. Among them, industrial silver is the largest demand for silver, accounting for more than 50% of total demand. Industrial silver is mainly divided into silver paste, silver plating, silver alloys, silver contacts, etc., including photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, electricity, semiconductors, etc., of which photovoltaic silver accounts for up to 30%. In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. The annual module shipment volume has increased from less than 100GW in 2020 to 500GW+ in 2023, especially N-type TopCon and HJT The consumption of technical silver has increased markedly and the share of shipments has increased rapidly, making the supply and demand for silver tending to be tight.
Silver prices continue to rise, which is beneficial to the industrialization of new technology to reduce silver 0BB&HJT
Dongwu Securities said that when considering the increase in the price of silver from 6,000 yuan/kg to 12,000 yuan/kg, the key variables are silver content and processing costs, a. Silver content: high temperature silver paste and low temperature silver paste are 90% silver content, 50% silver silver content is 50%, and 30% silver silver content is 30%; b. Processing fee: high temperature silver paste is 600 yuan/kg, low temperature silver paste is 900 yuan/kg, 50% silver coated copper is 1,200 yuan/kg, and 30% silver coated copper is 1500 yuan/kg.
(1) 0BB: Dongwu Securities estimates that for every 1,000 yuan increase in the price of silver, 0BB can save 2-4 percent /W more. Looking at different technical routes, HJT slurry consumption at 20bB can be reduced to 6-7mg/W, saving 3-4 mg/W after applying 0BB. Taking into account pure silver paste or silver-coated copper paste, it is calculated that if the price of silver increases from 6,000 yuan/kg to 12,000 yuan/kg, 0BB cost savings can be amplified from 0.01-0.02 yuan/W to 0.02-0.04 yuan/W.
(2) HJT: Dongwu Securities estimates that for every 1,000 yuan increase in the price of silver, HJT can save 7-8 pcs/W more by applying 0BB +30% silver-wrapped copper technology. Unlike TopCon technology, HJT's low temperature advantage enables the use of silver-coated copper paste, while TopCon can only use pure silver paste. At present, 50% of HJT's silver coated copper has basically been industrialized. It is estimated that if the price of silver increases from 6,000 yuan/kg to 12,000 yuan/kg, HJT can increase the cost savings from 0.04 yuan/W to 0.09 yuan/W by applying 0BB +30% silver coated copper.
Investment suggestions: Focus on recommending 0BB string welding machine leader Aotewei (688516.SH) and HJT leader Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ).
Risk warning: Downstream production expansion falls short of expectations, and technology promotion falls short of expectations.