Goldman Sachs recently announced that overseas hedge funds have increased their holdings of Chinese stocks for the fourth week in a row. How will the market go in the future?

来源：券商中国
作者：周乐

高盛在最新发布的报告中称，海外对冲基金已连续第四周增持中国股票。另据彭博社的数据显示，上周，中国是新兴市场国家中录得最大资金流入的市场，达4.88亿美元(约合人民币35亿元)。

北向资金方面，5月22日，北向资金净流入金额47.76亿元，年内净买入金额增至959.9亿元，超过2022年及2023年的全年净买入金额。种种迹象都显示出，全球资金对中国资产的配置热情加速升温。

站在当前时点，投资者或许更关心这一轮行情能否延续？外资会否继续押注中国资产？GlobalData TS Lombard的研究主管Andrea Cicione在最新的报告中写道，估值相对较低的中国股票依然具有吸引力，投资者重返中国股票的势头已经增强，并且可能持续下去；全球宏观研究机构Alpine Macro分析师也表示，在过去两个月的强劲反弹后，中国股市仍将进一步上涨，理由是在政府采取更多刺激措施的背景下，中国经济状况有所改善。

外围重磅

高盛在最新发布的报告中称，海外对冲基金已连续第四周增持中国股票。

高盛机构经纪团队表示，对冲基金在过去八周中有七周买入了中国股票。但该报告没有透露具体的购买金额。

另据彭博社的数据显示，上周，中国是新兴市场国家中录得最大资金流入的市场，达4.88亿美元，其中2.896亿美元流入iShares MSCI中国ETF。

富国银行新兴市场外汇策略师布伦丹·麦肯纳 ( Brendan McKenna ) 表示，每周大量资金买入中国股票的原因是，人们越来越乐观地认为中国政府将采取更多措施支持经济。

其实，从北向资金的数据也可以发现，外资正持续净流入A股市场。

据Wind数据显示，5月22日，北向资金净流入47.76亿元，单月净流入金额增加至217.46亿元，已经是2月份以来连续4个月净买入。全年维度来看，年内累计净买入金额已达959.9亿元，超过2022年及2023年的全年净买入金额。

外资押注中国资产的另一个迹象是，多位华尔街大佬已经在低位加大了对中国资产的配置。其中包括，著名大空头Michael Burry、亿万富翁投资者David Tepper的资管公司Appaloosa等。

随着资金加大对中国股票的配置力度，A股、港股以及在美上市的中概股集体上演了一波大反攻。

5月22日，A股市场窄幅震荡，三大指数集体收红，其中沪指收涨0.02%，深证成指收涨0.12%，创业板指收涨0.88%。今年以来，沪指累计涨幅达6.2%，沪深300指数累计上涨了7.4%，香港恒生指数则大幅飙升12.7%。

后市怎么走?

站在当前时点，投资者或许更关心这一轮行情能否延续?外资会否继续押注中国资产?

GlobalData TS Lombard的研究主管Andrea Cicione在最新的报告中写道，目前中国股票的估值与新冠疫情前的平均水平大致一致。鉴于火热的东南亚市场已经接近获利了结阶段，价格相对较低的中国股票依然十分具有吸引力。

他进一步指出，投资者重返中国股票的势头已经增强，并且可能持续下去。早些时候，LPL Financial策略师Adam Turnquist也有此言，判断中国股票的牛市将会持续。

全球宏观研究机构Alpine Macro分析师也在一份报告中写道，在过去两个月的强劲反弹之后，中国股市仍将进一步上涨，理由是在政府采取更多刺激措施的背景下，中国经济状况有所改善。

另外，高盛则在其最新的研究中表示，中国股市进入技术性牛市的概率为60%，未来六个月的平均潜在最高回报率为35%。

高盛分析师强调，未来12个月MSCI中国指数的潜在上涨空间在牛市、基准和熊市情景预测下分别为25%、8%和-13%。

高盛称，与几年前相比，中国股票相对于中美双边局势的敏感性有所减弱，这主要是因为市场对这些风险有了更好地理解和定价，这也就解释了为何美国政府上周宣布了新关税政策后，中国股票仍保持强劲势头。

高盛将MSCI中国指数12个月目标由60点升至70点，沪深300指数由3900点升至4100点，对内地A股维持“增持”评级。

楼市也传利好信号

Alpine Macro的分析师表示，中国宣布加大房地产支持力度的举措，标志着中国应对房地产市场低迷的立场发生急剧转变，并反映出中国采取“不惜一切代价”阻止房地产市场进一步疲软的态度。

4月末至今，中央到地方的利好政策不断，尤其是5月中旬，降首付比、取消利率下限、降公积金利率等“三箭齐发”，现行房贷政策已经比2016年更宽松。

Alpine Macro分析师在一份报告中表示，住房政策的大转变将有助于减轻开发商的财务压力，并为他们的资产价格提供底线。

其实，从当前市场行情来看，楼市利好政策加码确实在短期内稳固了市场信心。据CRIC监测，全国65个重点城市2024年第20周(5.13—5.19)商品住宅成交面积为330.89万平方米，与第19周基本持平，与2024年4月周均相比增长17%

其中，三四线修复情况好于一二线，40个三四线近一周成交量已显著好于今年3月周均水平。

克而瑞研究在最新发布的报告中表示，从项目来访、认购来看，多地市场活跃度稳步提升，可以将重点城市分为以下几类：

一是热点恒热的上海、成都、西安等，近一周市场成交止跌，因核心区域网红盘集中加推，使得市场热度高位维持。
二是短期内市场热度明显回升类城市，以深圳、武汉为典型代表，整体成交已经显著好于去年下半年周均水平。典型代表如深圳，热销喜报频发，新盘加速出货。
三是多数城市诸如北京、杭州、南京、苏州、合肥、郑州等项目来访量稳中有增，市场活跃度提升，但是尚未在成交端有所体现。

反映到市场层面，5月22日，地产链再度爆发，房地产服务、物业管理、房地产开发、建筑装饰等板块集体大涨。其中，万科A成交额达68.22亿元，全市场居首;盘中最高大涨近8%，4月25日至今，已从低点反弹超50%。

另外，房地产服务板块龙头——我爱我家4月25日至今，累计涨幅接近140%。

中邮证券表示，看好未来几个月政策窗口期的估值修复行情，但是否能持续最终仍取决于后续基本面的支撑与否。

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China
Author: Zhou Le

Goldman Sachs said in its latest report that overseas hedge funds have increased their holdings of Chinese stocks for the fourth consecutive week. Also, according to Bloomberg data, last week, China recorded the largest inflow of capital among emerging market countries, reaching 488 million US dollars (about 3.5 billion yuan).

In terms of northbound capital, on May 22, the net inflow of northbound capital was 4.776 billion yuan, and the net purchase amount increased to 95.99 billion yuan during the year, exceeding the net purchase amount for the full year of 2022 and 2023. Various signs indicate that global capital enthusiasm for allocating Chinese assets is heating up at an accelerated pace.

At this point, investors are probably more concerned about whether this round of market conditions can continue? Will foreign investors continue to bet on Chinese assets? Andrea Cicione, head of research at GlobalData TS Lombard, wrote in the latest report that Chinese stocks with relatively low valuations are still attractive, and the momentum for investors to return to Chinese stocks has increased and is likely to continue. Analysts at the global macro research institute Alpine Macro also said that after a strong rebound in the past two months, the Chinese stock market will rise further. The reason is that China's economic situation has improved against the backdrop of more stimulus measures taken by the government.

The periphery is heavy

Goldman Sachs said in its latest report that overseas hedge funds have increased their holdings of Chinese stocks for the fourth consecutive week.

The Goldman Sachs institutional brokerage team said that hedge funds have bought Chinese stocks in seven of the past eight weeks. However, the report did not reveal the exact amount of the purchase.

Also, according to Bloomberg data, last week, China was the market that recorded the largest capital inflow among emerging market countries, reaching 488 million US dollars, of which 289.6 million dollars flowed into the iShares MSCI China ETF.

Brendan McKenna (Brendan McKenna), an emerging markets foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, said that the reason people buy Chinese stocks with large amounts of money every week is because people are increasingly optimistic that the Chinese government will take more measures to support the economy.

In fact, data on capital from the north can also be found that foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market in a net manner.

According to Wind data, on May 22, the net capital inflow to the north was 4.776 billion yuan, and the monthly net inflow increased to 21.746 billion yuan. This is the fourth consecutive month of net purchases since February. In terms of the full year, the cumulative net purchase amount during the year has reached 95.99 billion yuan, which exceeds the net purchase amount for the full year of 2022 and 2023.

Another sign that foreign investors are betting on Chinese assets is that many Wall Street bosses have increased their allocation of Chinese assets at a low level. These include the famous big bear Michael Burry and the billionaire investor David Tepper's asset management company Appaloosa.

As capital increased their allocation to Chinese stocks, A shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Chinese securities listed in the US staged a wave of counterattacks.

On May 22, the A-share market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the three major indices collectively turned red. Among them, the Shanghai Index closed up 0.02%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index closed up 0.12%, and the GEM Index rose 0.88%. Since this year, the cumulative increase of the Shanghai Index has reached 6.2%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has accumulated a cumulative increase of 7.4%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has soared sharply by 12.7%.

How will the market go later?

At this point, investors are probably more concerned about whether this round of market conditions can continue? Will foreign investors continue to bet on Chinese assets?

Andrea Cicione, head of research at GlobalData TS Lombard, wrote in the latest report that the current valuation of Chinese stocks is roughly in line with the pre-COVID-19 average. As the hot Southeast Asian market is nearing profit settlement, Chinese stocks with relatively low prices are still very attractive.

He further indicated that the momentum for investors to return to Chinese stocks has increased and is likely to continue. Earlier, LPL Financial strategist Adam Turnquist also said this, judging that the bull market for Chinese stocks will continue.

Analysts at the global macro research institute Alpine Macro also wrote in a report that after a strong rebound in the past two months, the Chinese stock market will continue to rise further. The reason is that China's economic situation has improved against the backdrop of more stimulus measures taken by the government.

In addition, Goldman Sachs said in its latest research that the probability of the Chinese stock market entering a technical bull market is 60%, and the average potential maximum return for the next six months is 35%.

Goldman Sachs analysts emphasized that the potential upside for the MSCI China Index over the next 12 months is 25%, 8%, and -13%, respectively, under bull, benchmark, and bear scenarios.

Goldman Sachs said that compared with a few years ago, the sensitivity of Chinese stocks to the bilateral situation between China and the US has weakened. This is mainly because the market has a better understanding and pricing of these risks, which explains why Chinese stocks have maintained a strong momentum after the US government announced the new tariff policy last week.

Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target of the MSCI China Index from 60 points to 70 points, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index from 3,900 points to 4,100 points, maintaining an “gain” rating for mainland A-shares.

The property market is also sending positive signals

Analysts at Alpine Macro said that China's announcement of measures to increase support for real estate marks a sharp shift in China's position on dealing with the downturn in the real estate market and reflects China's attitude of “doing whatever it takes” to stop the real estate market from weakening further.

Since the end of April, favorable policies from the central government to the local authorities have continued. In particular, in mid-May, “three arrows went hand in hand”, such as lowering the down payment ratio, removing the lower interest rate limit, and lowering the interest rate on the Provident Fund. The current mortgage policy is already more relaxed than in 2016.

Alpine Macro analysts said in a report that a major shift in housing policy will help ease financial pressure on developers and provide a bottom line for their asset prices.

In fact, judging from the current market situation, the increase in favorable property market policies has indeed stabilized market confidence in the short term. According to CRIC monitoring, the commercial residential transaction area in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.19) in the country's 65 key cities was 3.3089 million square meters, which is basically the same as the 19th week, and an increase of 17% compared to the weekly average in April 2024

Among them, the repair situation of the third and fourth tier is better than that of the first and second tier, and the turnover of the 40 third and fourth tier lines in the past week has been significantly better than the average weekly level in March of this year.

Kerry Research said in a recently released report that judging from project visits and subscriptions, market activity in many places has been steadily increasing, and key cities can be divided into the following categories:

First, hot spots such as Shanghai, Chengdu, and Xi'an have stopped falling in market transactions in the past week, and market popularity has remained high due to the intensive promotion of influencer markets in core regions.
Second, market popularity has clearly rebounded in the short term. With Shenzhen and Wuhan as examples, overall transactions are already significantly better than the average weekly level in the second half of last year. Typical examples include Shenzhen. Good news of hot sales is frequent, and new products are shipped at an accelerated pace.
Third, the number of visits to projects in most cities, such as Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei, and Zhengzhou, is steadily increasing, and market activity is increasing, but this has not yet been reflected at the transaction end.

Reflected at the market level, on May 22, the real estate chain exploded again, and sectors such as real estate services, property management, real estate development, and building decoration collectively surged. Among them, Vanke A's turnover reached 6.822 billion yuan, leading the market; the highest intraday increase of nearly 8%. Since April 25, it has rebounded more than 50% from a low point.

Also, the leader in the real estate service sector, I Love My Family, has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 140% since April 25.

China Post Securities said it is optimistic about the valuation repair market during the policy window of the next few months, but whether it can continue will ultimately depend on whether it will continue to be supported by subsequent fundamentals.

Editor/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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高盛最新发声，海外对冲基金已连续第四周增持中国股票，后市怎么走？