Source: Broker China
Author: Zhou Le

Goldman Sachs said in its latest report that overseas hedge funds have increased their holdings of Chinese stocks for the fourth consecutive week. Also, according to Bloomberg data, last week, China recorded the largest inflow of capital among emerging market countries, reaching 488 million US dollars (about 3.5 billion yuan).

In terms of northbound capital, on May 22, the net inflow of northbound capital was 4.776 billion yuan, and the net purchase amount increased to 95.99 billion yuan during the year, exceeding the net purchase amount for the full year of 2022 and 2023. Various signs indicate that global capital enthusiasm for allocating Chinese assets is heating up at an accelerated pace.

At this point, investors are probably more concerned about whether this round of market conditions can continue? Will foreign investors continue to bet on Chinese assets? Andrea Cicione, head of research at GlobalData TS Lombard, wrote in the latest report that Chinese stocks with relatively low valuations are still attractive, and the momentum for investors to return to Chinese stocks has increased and is likely to continue. Analysts at the global macro research institute Alpine Macro also said that after a strong rebound in the past two months, the Chinese stock market will rise further. The reason is that China's economic situation has improved against the backdrop of more stimulus measures taken by the government.

The periphery is heavy

Goldman Sachs said in its latest report that overseas hedge funds have increased their holdings of Chinese stocks for the fourth consecutive week.

The Goldman Sachs institutional brokerage team said that hedge funds have bought Chinese stocks in seven of the past eight weeks. However, the report did not reveal the exact amount of the purchase.

Also, according to Bloomberg data, last week, China was the market that recorded the largest capital inflow among emerging market countries, reaching 488 million US dollars, of which 289.6 million dollars flowed into the iShares MSCI China ETF.

Brendan McKenna (Brendan McKenna), an emerging markets foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, said that the reason people buy Chinese stocks with large amounts of money every week is because people are increasingly optimistic that the Chinese government will take more measures to support the economy.

In fact, data on capital from the north can also be found that foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market in a net manner.

According to Wind data, on May 22, the net capital inflow to the north was 4.776 billion yuan, and the monthly net inflow increased to 21.746 billion yuan. This is the fourth consecutive month of net purchases since February. In terms of the full year, the cumulative net purchase amount during the year has reached 95.99 billion yuan, which exceeds the net purchase amount for the full year of 2022 and 2023.

Another sign that foreign investors are betting on Chinese assets is that many Wall Street bosses have increased their allocation of Chinese assets at a low level. These include the famous big bear Michael Burry and the billionaire investor David Tepper's asset management company Appaloosa.

As capital increased their allocation to Chinese stocks, A shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Chinese securities listed in the US staged a wave of counterattacks.

On May 22, the A-share market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the three major indices collectively turned red. Among them, the Shanghai Index closed up 0.02%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index closed up 0.12%, and the GEM Index rose 0.88%. Since this year, the cumulative increase of the Shanghai Index has reached 6.2%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has accumulated a cumulative increase of 7.4%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has soared sharply by 12.7%.

How will the market go later?

At this point, investors are probably more concerned about whether this round of market conditions can continue? Will foreign investors continue to bet on Chinese assets?

Andrea Cicione, head of research at GlobalData TS Lombard, wrote in the latest report that the current valuation of Chinese stocks is roughly in line with the pre-COVID-19 average. As the hot Southeast Asian market is nearing profit settlement, Chinese stocks with relatively low prices are still very attractive.

He further indicated that the momentum for investors to return to Chinese stocks has increased and is likely to continue. Earlier, LPL Financial strategist Adam Turnquist also said this, judging that the bull market for Chinese stocks will continue.

Analysts at the global macro research institute Alpine Macro also wrote in a report that after a strong rebound in the past two months, the Chinese stock market will continue to rise further. The reason is that China's economic situation has improved against the backdrop of more stimulus measures taken by the government.

In addition, Goldman Sachs said in its latest research that the probability of the Chinese stock market entering a technical bull market is 60%, and the average potential maximum return for the next six months is 35%.

Goldman Sachs analysts emphasized that the potential upside for the MSCI China Index over the next 12 months is 25%, 8%, and -13%, respectively, under bull, benchmark, and bear scenarios.

Goldman Sachs said that compared with a few years ago, the sensitivity of Chinese stocks to the bilateral situation between China and the US has weakened. This is mainly because the market has a better understanding and pricing of these risks, which explains why Chinese stocks have maintained a strong momentum after the US government announced the new tariff policy last week.

Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target of the MSCI China Index from 60 points to 70 points, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index from 3,900 points to 4,100 points, maintaining an “gain” rating for mainland A-shares.

The property market is also sending positive signals

Analysts at Alpine Macro said that China's announcement of measures to increase support for real estate marks a sharp shift in China's position on dealing with the downturn in the real estate market and reflects China's attitude of “doing whatever it takes” to stop the real estate market from weakening further.

Since the end of April, favorable policies from the central government to the local authorities have continued. In particular, in mid-May, “three arrows went hand in hand”, such as lowering the down payment ratio, removing the lower interest rate limit, and lowering the interest rate on the Provident Fund. The current mortgage policy is already more relaxed than in 2016.

Alpine Macro analysts said in a report that a major shift in housing policy will help ease financial pressure on developers and provide a bottom line for their asset prices.

In fact, judging from the current market situation, the increase in favorable property market policies has indeed stabilized market confidence in the short term. According to CRIC monitoring, the commercial residential transaction area in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.19) in the country's 65 key cities was 3.3089 million square meters, which is basically the same as the 19th week, and an increase of 17% compared to the weekly average in April 2024

Among them, the repair situation of the third and fourth tier is better than that of the first and second tier, and the turnover of the 40 third and fourth tier lines in the past week has been significantly better than the average weekly level in March of this year.

Kerry Research said in a recently released report that judging from project visits and subscriptions, market activity in many places has been steadily increasing, and key cities can be divided into the following categories:

First, hot spots such as Shanghai, Chengdu, and Xi'an have stopped falling in market transactions in the past week, and market popularity has remained high due to the intensive promotion of influencer markets in core regions.

Second, market popularity has clearly rebounded in the short term. With Shenzhen and Wuhan as examples, overall transactions are already significantly better than the average weekly level in the second half of last year. Typical examples include Shenzhen. Good news of hot sales is frequent, and new products are shipped at an accelerated pace.

Third, the number of visits to projects in most cities, such as Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei, and Zhengzhou, is steadily increasing, and market activity is increasing, but this has not yet been reflected at the transaction end.

Reflected at the market level, on May 22, the real estate chain exploded again, and sectors such as real estate services, property management, real estate development, and building decoration collectively surged. Among them, Vanke A's turnover reached 6.822 billion yuan, leading the market; the highest intraday increase of nearly 8%. Since April 25, it has rebounded more than 50% from a low point.

Also, the leader in the real estate service sector, I Love My Family, has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 140% since April 25.

China Post Securities said it is optimistic about the valuation repair market during the policy window of the next few months, but whether it can continue will ultimately depend on whether it will continue to be supported by subsequent fundamentals.

Editor/jayden