出行国民品牌心智优势，出境和海外高歌猛进。①市场此前对高基数下国内游增速和出境游恢复进度较为担忧，本季收入端一方面验证了对高线城市居民而言，旅游消费作为结构性增量，仍然具备较为强劲的韧性。携程的消费者心智和产品供应优势明显；②利润端的超预期主要来自营销投放，除了需求韧性，格局改善是更主要原因。OTA 行业成熟，多轮整合和出清后，格局的持续改善后，龙头利润率和回报率处于持续提升周期。③出境增速快于旅行社，线上化率、自由行、以及高线城市出境旅游结构性增长原因皆有。海外Trip.com 在营销费用克制的情况下，24Q1 收入增速80%，收入占比10%。Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Considering the structural impact of the recovery of low-margin business, the company's adjusted net profit for 24/25/26 was raised to RMB 142.99/170.75/195.80 (+14.16/+16.92/+19.40) billion yuan, giving a 24-year 23 xPE valuation, and raising the target market value to RMB 328.9 billion, corresponding to the target price of HK$528.
Performance summary: 24Q1 revenue of 11.92 billion yuan/ +29.42%, net profit to mother of 4.312 billion yuan/ +27.76%, adjusted net profit of 4,055 billion yuan/ +96.37%; adjusted EBITDA of 3,974 billion yuan/ +40.92%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.3% /+2.7pct.
Benefit from the improved pattern, and the performance exceeded expectations. ① The 24Q1 revenue growth rate slightly exceeded the guidelines (+29.42% vs. 24-29% forecast), but the performance clearly exceeded expectations (adjusted EBITDA of 3,974 billion vs. expected $32-3.4 billion); ② Group travel business (+129% vs. expected 117-122%), mainly driven by demand for outbound travel (international flights recovered to 70%, Ctrip was 20-30pct higher than the industry, and the Spring Festival has returned to 100%). 2) Overseas trips are growing rapidly; 3) Accommodation and transportation are in line with expectations. ③ Performance exceeded expectations, main reasons: 1) Gross margin was better than expected (81.1% vs. 80% expected), and the market previously had a structural impact on the growth of low-profit businesses. 2) The sales expense ratio once again exceeded expectations (19.4% vs. 22% forecast). On the one hand, it proved that domestic tourism demand was resilient and reliance on marketing investment was low; on the other hand, it also showed that overseas markets are expanding smoothly and marketing budgets are manageable.
National travel brands have mental advantages, and are making great strides abroad and overseas. ① The market was previously worried about the growth rate of domestic and outbound travel recovery from a high base. On the one hand, the revenue side proved that for high-tier city residents, tourism consumption is still quite resilient as a structural increase. Ctrip's consumer mentality and product supply advantages are obvious; ② Exceeding expectations on the profit side mainly comes from marketing campaigns. Apart from resilient demand, pattern improvement is the main reason. The OTA industry matures. After multiple rounds of integration and clearance, after continuous improvement of the pattern, leading profit margins and returns are in a continuous improvement cycle. ③ The outbound growth rate is faster than that of travel agencies. There are reasons for the online rate, free travel, and the structural increase in outbound tourism in high-tier cities. Overseas Trip.com's revenue grew 80% in 24Q1 under restrained marketing expenses, accounting for 10% of revenue.
Risk warning: Economic fluctuations affect business travel demand, outbound destination risks, and competition exacerbates risks.