Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the 2024/25/26 adjusted net profit of $2,648/38.09/4.798 billion. As the leading recruitment platform, the company gave a valuation of 30xPE higher than the industry average in 2024, maintained a target market value of RMB 79.4 billion for 2024, corresponding to HK$87.5 billion, and maintained a target price of HK$98.33, increasing its holdings.
Performance summary: The company's 2024Q1 cash revenue was 2,051 million/ +24.31%, operating income 17.03%, deducted non-net profit of 245 million yuan, 23Q1 was 32.62 million, and adjusted net profit to mother was 531 million/ +117%. The average monthly activity in 24Q1 was 46.6 million/ +17.4%, and the number of paid enterprise users was 5.7 million +42.5%.
Revenue performance once again exceeded expectations, and the bottom of the industry sentiment showed a clear alpha. ① Revenue and performance once again exceeded expectations, and revenue grew faster than cash revenue, indicating that the demand for companies to use recruitment on the platform is stronger. ② For BOSS, the key to business growth comes from scale growth, and marketing campaigns, scale effects, and profit margins are all results. The recruitment industry as a whole has yet to fully recover. Data from other companies in the industry can be verified. BOSS's strength in direct recruitment comes from its own alpha. ③ The driving force for growth is the universality of business models and competitive advantages, which drives the continued high growth of the blue-collar market (accounting for 35% of revenue, and the increase of more than 50% from blue-collar workers), and the advantage of this core competency continues to expand. As a result, accelerated growth is continuing.
Recruitment by large companies continues to stabilize, and blue-collar workers and low-level workers are making great strides. ① Recruitment trends: Blue-collar workers account for 35% of revenue growth; large enterprises are growing faster than small and medium-sized enterprises; manufacturing/logistics are growing rapidly, white-collar workers are recovering steadily, and the growth rate of the service sector is slowing down; the low-tier growth rate and share are increasing, and at the same time, the first tier is beginning to recover. ② Currently, BOSS is in the process of establishing a brand mentality, and the scale of BC has entered a positive cycle, increasing ROI of marketing investment and continuing to increase profit margins. ③ More attention should be paid to the fact that the pattern of many industry segments has improved markedly, and the gap between outstanding leaders and competitors is getting wider, thereby driving a sharp increase in market share and higher profit margins than expected. We expect BOSS Direct Hiring's share of the online recruitment industry to exceed 50%.
Risk warning: Economic fluctuations affect the recruitment needs and willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to pay, and recruitment platform competition exacerbates the risk of traffic platform business layout diversion.