由于经济数据和企业盈利依然强劲，标普500指数（SPX）今年以来上涨了11%，交易员们仍在押注美联储今年将开始降息。但投资者信心仍不高，根据美国投资公司协会的最新数据，截至5月15日当周，流入货币市场的资金增加逾160亿美元，至逾6万亿美元。 Dama analysts believe that investors in US stocks are still “afraid” and have not reached the “greedy” stage in the late stages of the bull market.
Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley's investment management department, said that although the stock market hit an all-time high, investors are still holding on to cash, which shows that the market still has a lot of room to rise.
Slimmon said on Tuesday that investors' low expectations for stocks and a preference for US Treasury yields of 5% to 6% suggest that the market is still in the “fear” phase of the current cycle. This is an early sign of a bull market. “In the late stages of a bull market, people expect higher returns,” Slimmon said.
As economic data and corporate profits remain strong, the S&P 500 (SPX) has risen 11% since this year, and traders are still betting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year. However, investor confidence is still low. According to the latest data from the American Association of Investment Companies, capital inflows into the money market increased by more than 16 billion US dollars to more than 6 trillion US dollars in the week ending May 15.
On Tuesday, as investors await key earnings reports from chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), the US stock market reached a new high. The company is the darling of artificial intelligence, and the company contributed about a quarter of this year's rise in the S&P 500 index.
According to Slimmon, large amounts of cash are still on the market, which will be a catalyst for further gains, as fear of missed opportunities (FOMO) sentiment may be strong if the stock market continues to rise. He said it would be a greater stimulus than the fall in US Treasury yields. He said:
“This is a typical cycle from fear to greed. For me, it just means we're still in the fear phase. I'm fully convinced that the only thing that can stop people from waiting on the sidelines is higher and higher stock market returns.”
He added that expectations for continued growth in corporate profits and slowing inflation should encourage investors to be more optimistic. However, this does not mean that the rise in US stocks will be smooth sailing. Slimmon expects a correction along the way, including during the seasonal weakness of US stocks usually in the summer.
The day before he made these remarks, his colleague Mike Wilson, the bank's chief stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, abandoned bearish expectations for US stocks and raised the target price of the S&P 500 index for the next 12 months, from 4,500 points to 5,400 points.