Finance Association, May 22 (Reporter Yan Jun) After stealing gold and treasury bonds, the industry ridiculed: Today, none of your peers are in debt. Watching the movie, the main focus is on a Chinese aunt teaching you how to do debt!

On May 22, the first ultra-long-term special treasury bonds “24 Special Country 01” and “Special Country 2401” were listed and traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange respectively.

The ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued this year are bookkeeping treasury bonds. The first batch of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds attracted onlookers. Taking “24 Special Country 01,” as an example, the first batch of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds attracted onlookers. After the opening, the market surged to a sharp rise of 25% again after the resumption of trading. The second session stopped until 15:27 until trading resumed three minutes before closing in the afternoon.

However, after the resumption of trading, the sharp decline began in just 3 minutes. By the close, it had closed up only 1.32%, returning to calm.

The roller coaster market is not enough to describe the decline in today's market. How exciting is it?

By conversion, the term of the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued in this issue is 30 years. They are fixed-interest interest-bearing bonds, totaling 40 billion yuan, and the coupon interest rate determined through tenders is 2.57%. This means that the face price of treasury bonds is 100 yuan, and the annual interest rate is 2.57 yuan. This morning it rose and fell to 25%. This can be understood as the face price of 125 yuan. This is about equivalent to “ten years of interest rising in one morning.”

Obviously, this will not be the norm. A number of fund managers told the Financial Services Association reporter that the “24 Special Country 01” on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the “Special Country 2401” on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have fluctuated greatly, and the overall trading volume is not significant. This increase does not match long-term economic expectations. There is an element of capital speculation today, similar to the logic of speculating on sub-IPOs. There is no way to use the analytical framework of bond investment to explain today's gains since listing.

At the same time, some fund managers advised investors that this increase has no value in terms of yield, and that they should participate carefully and be wary of risks.

The first ultra-long-term special treasury bond transaction is booming

Trading of “Special Guo 2401” on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is also very popular. Trading was temporarily suspended twice during the intraday period and closed. “Special Guo 2401” surged 19.70%, and now the face price is 119.7 yuan.

According to public information, the special treasury bonds issued in this issue are fixed interest rate bonds with a term of 30 years, a coupon interest rate of 2.57%, and an interest payment frequency of half a year. Individual investors can purchase on the exchange market through an ordinary personal securities account. The minimum order quantity is 1,000, calculated according to the issue price, which is 100,000 yuan. T+0 transactions are used on the market. If the investor's holding expires, payment is made according to the face value. By simple calculation, the face value of holding an expired voucher is approximately $177.

Special treasury bonds are very popular from issuance to trading. On the one hand, the two banks selling ultra-long-term special treasury bonds sold out their sales quota on the day they opened for purchase and were robbed; on the other hand, trading of both treasury bonds was suspended twice on the day they were listed, and prices fluctuated greatly.

During the suspension of trading, it sparked market discussions. Some institutional sources said that bond traders were busy watching, and many peers were inquiring about “what happened.”

The Financial Services Association reporter learned from fund managers that “24 Special Country 01” on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and “Special Guo 2401” on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange fluctuated greatly. The overall trading volume was not large. There was no premium transaction for “Shanghai Securities Fixed Income”, and there is a lot of suspicion of hype.

“The element of financial speculation is similar to the logic of speculating on sub-IPOs. There is no way to use the analytical framework of bond investment to explain this increase since listing.” A fund manager said.

It is worth noting that there is a big difference in the price of the same bond between banks and exchanges. Another fund manager said that the increase in these two treasury bonds did not match long-term economic expectations. There were certain irrational factors. Prices also declined somewhat after the temporary suspension of trading ended. Compared with that, prices in the interbank market are relatively stable. As trading sentiment gradually stabilizes, it is expected that the price of special treasury bonds on the exchange will return to the price of special treasury bonds in the interbank market.

Some industry insiders said that prices in the interbank market are relatively stable, which means that interbank speculation is not strong; however, there are large fluctuations in exchanges, so no wonder the market says “watching aunt speculate on debt.”

During the year, 80% of the bond base was newly issued, and the size of on-market debt-based ETFs exceeded 100 billion dollars

Changniu's bond market has already taken over investors' minds. Whether it's initial launch or operation, channels and e-commerce platforms all use the bond base as the main product. Influencer bonds are constantly growing at the grassroots level, making them a powerful tool for fund companies to do large-scale work.

In terms of issuance, as of May 22, 406 new funds had been established in the entire market, with a total issuance share of 404.529 billion yuan, with an average issuance share of 996 million yuan. Among them, the bond base is the absolute main force in terms of issuance scale. During the same period, 132 bond funds were established, with an issuance share of 324.07 billion yuan, accounting for 80.11%. The average issuance share was 2,455 billion yuan, which is nearly 2.5 times the total average issuance share.

Specifically, the issuance scale of 39 debt bases exceeds 3 billion. Among them, the issuance scale of 15 debt bases, including Anxin Changxin, Xingzheng Global China Bond 0-3 year policy financial bonds, Taikang China Bond 0-3 policy financial bonds, and SDIC UBS Qiyuan interest rate bonds, reached or was close to 8 billion.

Meanwhile, changes in on-market debt-based ETFs can also represent capital preferences. Since this year, the total size of 20 debt-based ETFs in the market has surpassed 100 billion dollars. Haifutong's short-term finance ETF surpassed 30 billion dollars, and the 7-10 year policy financial bond ETF size of Fuguo China Bond reached 15 billion, while Ping An Fund's corporate bond ETF also recently surpassed 10 billion dollars.

Take Ping An corporate bond ETF as an example. The scale increased by about 4 billion yuan during the year, and the scale increased by more than 2 billion yuan in the past month. Wang Renzeng, manager of the ETF fund, said that in the current macroeconomic context where monetary policy maintains a steady and relaxed trend and market liquidity remains reasonable and abundant, high-grade credit bonds have excellent credit qualifications, steady profits, and low risk of default. In particular, they are expected to continue to attract investors in the current low interest rate environment. This provides broad space for the development of credit bond ETFs.

In fact, not only do domestic investors like to buy debt bases, but overseas investors also prefer debt when allocating RMB assets. According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, net purchases of domestic bonds and stocks by overseas investors in April were 124.7 billion yuan and 45.1 billion yuan respectively. This is the eighth month in a row that overseas institutional investors have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds.

Also, according to data recently released by the central bank's Shanghai headquarters, as of the end of April, overseas institutions held 4.05 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for about 2.9% of the total amount of interbank bond market custody.

The slow bullish logic of the bond market will not change

Driven by the first ultra-long-term special treasury bonds today, the long-term 30-year treasury bond ETF had the highest increase in the market debt base, rising 0.18% throughout the day. It is worth noting that long-term treasury bonds were lowered from a high level on April 23. The range has now declined by 2.29%, and is currently in a volatile phase.

Some fund managers said that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have an overall longevity and are more sensitive to interest rates. Compared with short-term bonds, a slight increase in interest rates may also lead to large net price losses. As economic fundamentals gradually improve and bond supply accelerates, investors should pay special attention to the interest rate risk of such bonds.

However, fund managers are not pessimistic about the overall bond market. Zou Wei, general manager of the fixed income research department and fund manager of Golden Eagle Fund, said that the recent interest rate curve has basically continued the trend of last month and continues to steep. The rise in long-term interest rates was mainly affected by some rumors and the impact on the supply of ultra-long treasury bonds. Judging from the pace of issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds announced so far, it has been divided into more than 20 installments, each of which is tens of billions of dollars. The amount is also relatively small, and it is expected that the impact on the market will not be significant. Short- and medium-term interest rates mainly benefit from abundant liquidity. Against the backdrop of scarce assets, crackdown on manual interest payments, capital disintermediation, deposit relocation, and short- and medium-end bonds are sought after.

Looking at it from a longer-term perspective, Zou Wei said that under the guidelines of high-quality economic development, debt may continue when old and new kinetic energy is being converted. Of course, there may also be a correction in the future. When it rises a lot, people are afraid of going high. At this time, the negative factors are often amplified. After all, there are no assets that only rise or fall; the bond market will continue to strengthen in the midst of twists and turns.