Incidents:
On April 22, 2024, Zhifei Biotech disclosed the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 52,918 billion yuan, +38.30% year over year; realized net profit of 8.070 billion yuan, +7.04% year over year; realized net profit without return to mother of 7.915 billion yuan, +5.40% year over year. 2024Q1 achieved operating income of 11.396 billion yuan, +2.00% year over year; net profit to mother of 1,458 billion yuan, -28.26% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 1,455 billion yuan, -28.36% year on year.
Sales of HPV vaccine products are growing steadily
By product structure, in 2023, the company's agent products achieved revenue of 51,885 billion yuan, +48.35%; independent products achieved revenue of 1,028 billion yuan, -68.70% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 98.05% of agent product sales revenue. In 2023, the nine-valent HPV vaccine batch issued 36.55 million, +136.16% year over year; the quadrivalent HPV vaccine batch issued 10.34 million doses, -26.27% year over year.
Surrogate recombinant shingles vaccine contributes incremental
In October 2023, the company and GSK reached cooperation for the first time. The company will act as an agent to promote and sell the recombinant shingles vaccine in mainland China, and the two sides reached preliminary intentions for future promotion cooperation for the RSV vaccine in mainland China. The company and GSK have agreed on a minimum annual purchase amount for the 2024-2026 recombinant shingles vaccine. We believe that recombinant shingles vaccine products are expected to contribute a good sales increase to the company starting this year.
Independent product development projects continue to advance
In 2023, the company made positive development progress in a number of self-developed products, and the advantages of the platform-based layout were initially evident: the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine developed independently by the company was approved for marketing, and the clinical application for the 26-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was accepted; the recombinant group B meningococcal vaccine entered phase I clinical trials, and the research and development of quadrivalent influenza conjugate vaccines and five-valent influenza vaccines in the influenza vaccine matrix is also being actively promoted; the 100-valent pneumococcal vaccine has entered phase III clinical trials.
Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings
The 2024Q1 company's performance is under pressure. We believe the performance may remain relatively stable as HPV vaccine releases and recombinant shingles vaccines contribute to increased sales. Considering factors such as changes in the company's product structure and changes in the number of newborns each year, we adjusted the 2024-2025 revenue from 598.74/62,628 billion yuan to 615.59,165 billion yuan, and the 2026 revenue forecast to 54.799 billion yuan; the net profit forecast for 2024-2025 was adjusted from 124.69/13.220 billion yuan to 8833/9.386 billion yuan, and the net profit forecast for 2026 was 9.655 billion yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: policy risk, bad debt risk, public opinion management risk, talent management risk, vaccine hesitation risk.