Today, although the major indices of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have not increased much, individual stocks have shown a general upward pattern. The money-making effect on the market is obvious, and concept stocks such as PV, real estate, and AI PCs have collectively strengthened.
On the same day, there was a lot of good news for the market: First, foreign investors sang a lot. J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs made sharp increases$TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$Target price, Morgan Stanley will$LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$The target price for Hong Kong stocks was raised by 64.8%. Second, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in favorable policies. Third, the Ministry of Finance plans to implement a special guarantee plan for scientific and technological innovation to guide banks and government financing guarantee agencies at all levels to strengthen financing support for science and technology innovation small and medium-sized enterprises.
The concept of photovoltaics has skyrocketed
On May 22, the trend of the three major A-share indices diverged. The GEM index was relatively strong, individual stocks showed active performance, and the two markets rose by more than 3,100 individual stocks. Among them, the photovoltaic index surged by nearly 5%.$Gansu Golden Solar (300093.SZ)$,$Risen Energy (300118.SZ)$,$Shenzhen Topraysolar (002218.SZ)$,$JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ)$Wait for nearly 30 concept stocks to rise or stop or rise more than 10%.
On the evening of the 21st, good news came from the photovoltaic industry. On the same night, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association released news that recently, under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a “Symposium on High Quality Development of the PV Industry”. Representatives from research institutes such as the Development Research Center of the State Council, the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Development Bank, financial institutions, and listed companies such as Tianhe Solar, Jingke Energy, Longji Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and Daquan Energy attended the conference.
The conference pointed out that industry mergers and restructuring are encouraged, market exit mechanisms are unblocked; the crackdown on vicious competition in below-cost sales is strengthened; the steady growth of the domestic photovoltaic market is guaranteed, the application of advanced technology is explored through demonstration projects, and the situation of winning bids at low prices is transformed.
Also, on the afternoon of the 22nd, there were market rumors that the Saudi New Future City promoted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was on a global roadshow. Saudi Arabia plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to develop green energy. The first batch will build several world-class photovoltaic projects, and it is expected that Chinese manufacturers will get the largest share.
However, some analysts pointed out that the credibility of the above rumor is questionable. However, since 2023, demand for PV in the Middle East market, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has increased dramatically, but it is visible to the naked eye. Some Chinese PV giants are also planning or are building local factories.
The New Future City is located in Tabuk Province in northwestern Saudi Arabia. It is planned to cover an area of 26,500 square kilometers. It is a regional development model created by Saudi Arabia under the “Vision 2030” framework, with a total investment of 500 billion US dollars. The Saudi Public Investment Fund program focuses on developing industries such as new energy, transportation, food, technology, digital technology, and biotechnology within the region.
According to information, Saudi Arabia is advancing the energy transition and plans to develop renewable energy at a rate of 20 GW per year to achieve an installed capacity of 130 GW by 2030. The Saudi government and private sector will implement more than 80 measures to promote the energy transition, and the total investment will exceed US$188 billion.
Foreign investors are singing more about China's assets
Currently, foreign investors are intensively promoting China's assets.
J.P. Morgan Chase pointed out in a report released on May 22 that the cumulative increase in Ctrip's stock price since the beginning of the year has reached 58%, which is superior to that of other companies in the same industry. This upward trend is due to a positive review of Ctrip's profit expectations, an overall increase in industry valuations, and improved profit prospects brought about by a recovery in travel demand.
The report emphasizes that there is potential for structural improvement in Ctrip's profit margins in the local market, while the increase in outbound travel market share will drive profit growth in the next few quarters. Furthermore, the company's international online travel platform business has shown strong growth momentum and is expected to continue to support its long-term profit growth. J.P. Morgan raised Ctrip's target share price for H shares from HK$424 to HK$550, and raised Ctrip's adjusted earnings per share forecast for the next two years by 16% and 8%, respectively. In light of these positive factors, J.P. Morgan continues to maintain Ctrip's “plus” rating.
In addition, Goldman Sachs's latest report also indicates that Ctrip's first-quarter results have exceeded expectations. Ctrip's annual revenue is expected to reach 52.8 billion yuan, up 19% year on year, and the EBIT profit margin is expected to rise from 27.7% to 30.1%. Net profit for the full year of this year is expected to increase 13% to 16 billion yuan, and is expected to increase 16% respectively in the next two years. Goldman Sachs raised Ctrip's target price for H shares from HK$439 to HK$500, maintaining a “buy” rating.
At the same time, PC giant Lenovo Group has also been widely promoted by foreign investors. On May 21, Lenovo Group launched the first next-generation Copilot+ PC equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon XElite. Morgan Stanley also pointed out that the penetration rate of artificial intelligence computers (AI PCs) in laptops is expected to increase from about 2% this year to around 85% in 2028, and the increase in sales volume is also expected to drive up the average sales price, thereby benefiting the supply chain. It is expected that AI PCs will initially drive up the average sales price by 7.5%, and over time, the price increase will weaken to 2% to 3% from 2027 to 2028.
According to Morgan Stanley, Lenovo Group has always been an undervalued stock, but with the rise of AI PCs, the growth of AI PCs and AI servers will support Lenovo's revaluation. Morgan Stanley listed Lenovo as the preferred stock and raised its target price by 64.8%, from HK$9.1 to HK$15, while the rating was upgraded from “synchronizing with the market” to “increasing holdings”.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs recently raised the 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 60 to 70; the 12-month target for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index was raised from 3,900 points to 4,100 points. Earlier, Goldman Sachs Group's brokerage department data showed that hedge funds made net purchases of stocks in various regions of the world last week. Among them, developed markets in Europe and Asia ranked first, while China continued until the fourth week.
Ministry of Finance releases positive news
In fact, the Ministry of Finance also recently released good news: in 2024, the Ministry of Finance plans to implement a special guarantee plan for scientific and technological innovation.
Full support for leading industrial innovation through scientific and technological innovation is an important driving direction for this year's fiscal policy. A relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said that the Ministry of Finance insists on giving priority guarantees to science and technology as a key area of fiscal expenditure and increasing investment in science and technology. In 2024, the central government's science and technology budget is 370.83 billion yuan, an increase of 10% over the previous year. In terms of supporting the strengthening of basic research, the central government allocated 98 billion yuan for basic research in 2024, an increase of 13.1%.
At the same time, in order to further implement the innovation-driven development strategy, in 2024, the Ministry of Finance plans to implement a special guarantee plan for science and technology innovation by improving the risk sharing and compensation of science and technology innovation SMEs by the State Finance Guarantee Fund, guide banks and government financing guarantee agencies at all levels to strengthen financing support for science and technology innovation SMEs, leverage more financial resources to invest more financial resources in the field of scientific and technological innovation, and provide strong support for achieving a high level of self-reliance in science and technology, accelerate the formation of new quality productivity, and promote high-quality economic development.
editor/tolk