The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Securities released a research report saying that the current real estate market is at the bottom, and that it has reached the most relaxed stage in history based on down payment and loan interest rates. Purchase restrictions in some regions have been relaxed one after another, and residents' purchasing power is expected to be released. Against this backdrop, post-cycle sector valuation and operation are also expected to usher in a double inflection point. On the valuation side, the rebound was very timely, in sync with the policy, and ahead of the inflection point of real estate sales; on the management side, although the correlation between white electricity, kitchen appliances, etc. and new real estate homes has declined, the impact ranges are still around 20% and 50%, respectively. Considering the impact and correlation of second-hand housing, the improvement in the real estate industry is expected to drive a recovery in decoration demand. It is worth mentioning that the government promotes land recycling and stock housing acquisitions to bail out housing companies' funds, and enterprises with a lot of bad debts in the early stages are also expected to benefit.

The main views of Guolian Securities are as follows:

The policy focuses on “boosting residents' demand and bailing out housing enterprises”

Recently, real estate policies have been strengthened significantly. First, in response to residents' needs, the central bank optimized down payment and interest rate policies: (1) the minimum down payment ratio for first/second housing loans was reduced to 15%/25%; (2) the lower limit of the interest rate policy for first/second home loans at the national level was abolished; and (3) interest rates on personal housing provident fund loans were lowered by 0.25 percentage points. Second, in response to the bailout of housing enterprises, each region (1) promotes the disposal of commercial housing projects under construction that are difficult to sell; (2) properly dispose of vacant residential land that has already been sold by means of take-back or acquisition as appropriate; (3) the government may, at its discretion, purchase some commercial housing for affordable housing at reasonable prices. In summary, recent policy strength is unprecedented, and subsequent real estate and real estate chains are expected to reverse, which is worth paying attention to.

Leaders have strong ability to adapt to channel changes, and the pattern ushered in optimization

Judging from endogenous changes in the kitchen appliance industry, the current kitchen appliance channel is gradually becoming fragmented, but leading companies are more able to adapt to channel changes, and the pattern is becoming more concentrated. Among them, there is plenty of room for e-commerce competition. Since boss/Fangtai/Vantai/Vantage has maintained a mid-high-end position for a long time, participation in the low price market is low, and the leaders hardly participate in the “less than 1,000 yuan” market, which accounts for more than half of online sales. Currently, the leaders are starting to develop low-terminal brands, and the main brands are also expected to strategically launch some low-end models. In addition, new channels such as sinking and packaging are growing rapidly, and the sinking platform will select leading companies to cooperate; furthermore, in order to attract consumers, partner brands are also mainly well-known leading brands, which is also conducive to share concentration.

Real estate policy signals are positive, optimistic about the sector's investment value

Guolian Securities said that the recent real estate policy is unprecedentedly strong. This is expected to release residents' demand for housing purchases and bail out capital for housing enterprises. The real estate market is expected to improve, and leading valuations and operations are expected to recover in the post-cycle. Furthermore, if housing companies' capital is improved, leading profit groups with a high percentage of bad debts in the early stages are also expected to benefit. Recommended: Boss Electric Appliance (002508.SZ), which has strong comprehensive strength and accelerates multi-category expansion & channel competition; Vantage Co., Ltd. (002035.SZ), where channel adjustment dividends are realized, and average price & profitability continues to improve; stable converter business, strengthened comprehensive competitive strength drives increased business share, and new energy & smart home businesses (603195.SH); it is recommended to focus on the integrated stove sector where fundamentals, positions, etc. are all at the bottom.

Risk warning: Industry demand falls far short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate greatly.