Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report, and the results fell short of previous expectations. I am optimistic that the company, as a leading company in silicon materials and batteries, has a clear competitive advantage, is steadily expanding its high-quality production capacity, and continues to develop its component business.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company announced its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. Recently, competition in the photovoltaic industry has intensified. The company has made extensive preparations for price reductions in inventory and fixed assets, and the performance fell short of expectations.
The 2024-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.56 (-2.94) and 1.33 (-3.08) yuan, and the 2026 EPS forecast was added at 1.88 yuan. The current industry is about 17 times the average valuation of the company in 2025. Considering that the company has a clear competitive advantage as a leading company in silicon materials and batteries, it will continue to strengthen its component business, give PE 20X in 2025, and lower the target price to 26.6 (-25.9) yuan. Maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Polysilicon's leading position is stable, and new battery production capacity is rapid mass production. In 2023, the company achieved sales volume of 387,200 tons of high-purity silicon, a year-on-year increase of 50.79%, and a global market share of over 25%. By the end of 2023, the company has a production capacity of 450,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon and 400,000 tons of production capacity under construction. It is expected to be put into operation in the second and third quarters of 2024, respectively. At present, the company's N-type products account for more than 90% of the monthly output; the average production cost has been reduced to less than 42,000 yuan/ton; and deep cooperative relationships have been established with downstream customers through models such as equity cooperation and long order signing. In terms of batteries, the company's battery sales volume in 2023 was 80.66 GW (including personal use), an increase of 68.11% over the previous year. By the end of 2023, the company will have an annual battery production capacity of 95 GW, simultaneously promoting the upgrading of existing PERC production capacity and the construction of new TNC production capacity. It is expected that TNC battery production capacity will exceed 100 GW by the end of 2024, and continue to lead the industry in terms of non-silicon costs and battery efficiency.
The component business is growing rapidly, and the integrated layout is growing together with the industry. The company actively promotes the integration of component business layout to demonstrate the company's competitive strength in the entire industry chain. In 2023, we achieved 31.11 GW of module sales, entered the top five shipments in the world, and actively expanded our layout in domestic and overseas channels.
catalysts. The price of silicon materials has rebounded steadily, non-silicon costs have continued to decline, and production capacity for new battery technology has been put into operation.
Risk warning. Risks such as increased industry competition and overseas trade protection.