Finance Association, May 22 (Reporter Wang Hong) Today's ultra-long-term special treasury bonds surged 25% after trading on the first day of listing, triggering temporary suspensions twice in half a day. Furthermore, the two banks that sell ultra-long-term special treasury bonds “sold out” their sales volume on the day they opened for purchase. Taken together, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were “favored” by many parties.

Industry insiders pointed out that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds also have the advantage of balancing good profitability and ultra-low risk with national credit guarantees, which can alleviate the problem of scarce assets for bond investors. Furthermore, to a certain extent, it also compensates for bond investment demand, which has clearly shrunk due to the issuance of urban investment bonds and real estate bonds. Currently, long-term special treasury bonds are facing a good financial market environment. The pace and single scale of the issuance of special treasury bonds this time is relatively smooth, and the impact on capital is limited.

Special treasury bonds are popular in the market to meet multi-party asset allocation needs

Today's ultra-long-term special treasury bond (phase 1) listing transaction triggered temporary suspension of trading twice in the morning. “As a safe asset, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have impressive returns and are easier to attract investors. “24 Special Country 01” surged on the first day of its listing, unleashing investors' enthusiasm for investing in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds,” Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank of China, told the Financial Federation.

A CFA reporter learned in an interview that all parties in the market reacted strongly to ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which met the needs of various parties for asset allocation.

For bond investors, the stable issuance of special treasury bonds is conducive to alleviating the problem of scarce assets. A person from an insurance asset management agency pointed out to the Financial Federation reporter that judging from the 3.9 times bid multiplier for the first issue, investors actively participated in the tender for related bonds. “On the one hand, the issuance and use of special treasury bonds is conducive to relieving pressure on short-term economic growth. On the other hand, special treasury bonds will also fund key technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrading, effectively improving medium- to long-term production efficiency.”

After regulators guided deposit interest rates to continue to be lowered and manual interest payments were prohibited, there was a clear trend of returning deposits to financial management. In particular, corporate capital purchases and financial management have increased markedly recently. Demand for financial allocation on the asset side has increased, but wealth management products with stable returns and low net worth fluctuations are still the current mainstream investment demand.

“On the one hand, ultra-long-term treasury bonds can meet the allocation needs of low-wave prudential products, enriching the investment variety of wealth management products. On the other hand, they also partially offset bond investment demand, which has clearly shrunk due to the issuance of urban investment bonds and real estate bonds,” Xu Wenchao, rating director of Fitch Ratings Asia Pacific Financial Institutions, told the Financial Federation.

A Financial Services Association reporter noticed that the two banks “tested the waters” and “robbed” the market on the same day that they sold ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. China Merchants Bank and Zheshang Bank opened the first batch of 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to individual customers on May 20. On the day of opening, the two banks sold out a combined sales quota of 530 million yuan.

Wang Huayu, deputy director of the Finance and Taxation Law Research Center at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, told the Finance Association reporter that for treasury bond investors, ultra-low-risk ultra-long-term treasury bonds that balance good profitability and national credit guarantees are also a good investment choice. This can be reflected in the popularity of the market.

However, Lou Feipeng also cautioned that the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued this year are bookkeeping treasury bonds, and you can earn stable principal and interest income by holding them at maturity. Considering that bookkeeping treasury bonds can be traded in the market during their lifetime, the transaction price fluctuates with market conditions. If you invest in special treasury bonds for the purpose of trading, you may either make a profit or lose money. Such investors need to have certain investment experience and risk tolerance. Investors need to have a clear understanding of this.

The issuance is based on a good financial market environment and has limited impact on capital

Many industry insiders believe that the current long-term special treasury bonds are facing a better financial market environment. Since last year, in order to promote economic recovery, the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio several times, introduced medium-term lending facilities, and guided the reduction of LPR interest rates and deposit interest rates. The financial market has abundant capital and appropriate capital prices, providing a good money market environment for issuing ultra-long-term treasury bonds.

Xu Wenchao pointed out that in line with the special treasury bond issuance plan previously announced by the Ministry of Finance, the pace and single scale of the special treasury bond issuance this time is relatively smooth, and the impact on capital is limited.

Yan Zhiyong, manager of Western Profit Fund, believes that the short-term impact of the issuance of special treasury bonds on the bond market may have come to an end. “After the special treasury bond issuance plan was decided, the investment sentiment of 30y treasury bonds improved markedly, and the bond market did not continue to weaken after issuance. The impact on supply expectations or the phased end. In the future, we need to pay attention to changes in actual liquidity after issuance.”

“If the subsequent issuance of special treasury bonds has an impact on interbank liquidity beyond expectations, measures such as downgrading and MLF renewal may be considered to smooth out large fluctuations in short-term capital interest rates,” Xu Wenchao also said.

Wang Huayu pointed out that judging from the issuance schedule and possible effects of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, the scale and timing of their issuance should comprehensively consider economic and social development and bond market trends. The frequency and phased scale of issuance this year and the next few years can be promoted in a “precise drip irrigation” style according to policy requirements. At the same time, since ultra-long-term treasury bonds are issued and put on the market in batches, and they still account for a small amount of currency in the market, the impact on the price index is limited, and it will not cause a so-called inflation crisis.