Since the end of April, capital inflows from Hong Kong Stock Connect have continued; although the cumulative net outflow of funds from international intermediaries throughout the year has begun to flow back marginally; the outflow rate of capital outflows from local intermediaries in Hong Kong has also slowed down.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huafu Securities released a research report saying that the Hong Kong stock market has performed strongly since January 23. As of May 20, the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology Index had cumulative increases of 39.2% and 36.2% respectively. The cumulative increases of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Composite Index also reached 31.2% and 31.1% respectively, leading the world's major stock markets by a large margin. By industry, first-level industries such as materials, energy, and information technology performed far ahead. Judging from recent changes, capital inflows from Hong Kong Stock Connect have continued since the end of April; although the cumulative net outflow of funds from international intermediaries throughout the year has begun to flow back marginally; the outflow rate of capital outflows from local intermediaries in Hong Kong has also slowed down.
Huafu Securities pointed out that liquidity has always been an important factor affecting the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. In particular, fundamentals have not fluctuated significantly in the short term, and improvements in capital should be the most direct factor affecting the trend of the Hong Kong stock market.
In the Hong Kong stock market, foreign, Hong Kong and domestic shareholding are basically in a three-legged situation. As of May 20, the market value of shares held by international intermediaries in the Hong Kong stock market was HK$8.5 trillion, accounting for 38%. The market value of shares held by local intermediaries in Hong Kong was HK$8.0 trillion, accounting for 36%. The market value of shares held by Chinese intermediaries was HK$3.0 trillion, accounting for 13%. The market value of shares held by Hong Kong Stock Connect was HK$2.9 trillion, accounting for 13%.
The market value of shares held by various intermediaries in Hong Kong stocks has rebounded this year. Huafu Securities said that with the exception of Hong Kong Stock Connect, the market value of shares held by major intermediaries continued to shrink after reaching a high point in 2020, and has rebounded until this year. The market value of shares held by Hong Kong Stock Connect, international intermediaries, Hong Kong local intermediaries, and Chinese institutions this year increased by 32.2%, 19.0%, 13.2%, and 13.4%, respectively, compared to the end of last year.
Looking at the whole year, there was a slight net outflow of capital from the Hong Kong stock market, but different institutions were highly divided. Among them, capital from the south bucked the trend and flowed heavily into the Hong Kong stock market, which is still the main incremental capital in the Hong Kong stock market this year. As of May 20, a total net outflow of capital from various intermediaries has been HK$2.8 billion from the Hong Kong stock market this year, of which local intermediaries in Hong Kong have outflows of HK$116.4 billion, while international intermediaries and Chinese intermediaries have outflows of HK$50.7 billion and HK$50.3 billion respectively, while Hong Kong Stock Connect has accumulated a significant net inflow of HK$214.5 billion.
Risk warning: First, geopolitical risk; second, macroeconomics fall short of expectations; third, historical experience is for reference only; fourth, there are large fluctuations in overseas markets, etc.