盈利预测和估值。我们预计2024 年至2026 年公司营业收入分别为10.57亿元、11.85 亿元和13.65 亿元，同比增速分别为14.9%、12.1%和15.2%；归母净利润分别为1.81 亿元、2.12 亿元和2.51 亿元，同比增速分别为20.5%、16.9%和18.1%，以5 月20 日收盘价计算，对应PE 分别为26.6倍、22.8 倍和19.3 倍，维持“买入”评级。Incident: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved operating income of 920 million yuan (+6.15%), net profit to mother of 150 million yuan (+48.24%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 127 million yuan (+42.51%). In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 199 million yuan (+20.67%), net profit to mother of 41.65 million yuan (+62.28%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 39.66 million yuan (+74.63%).
“Su Ling” grew rapidly, and “closely covered interest” performed steadily. In 2023, “Suling” (injectable viper hemagglutinin) achieved revenue of 613 million yuan (+13.89%), sold 3 million boxes (+19.83%), and maintained relatively rapid growth, mainly due to: (1) the lifting of restrictions on medical insurance payments; and (2) the recovery of surgical volume after the epidemic. Since competing products have been included in national procurement and centralized procurement of regional alliance drugs in recent years, we believe that “Suling” is still expected to maintain rapid growth with its high pharmacoeconomic value and favorable market competition pattern. “Migasil” (salmon calcitonin injection and nasal spray) earned 297 million yuan (+0.51%). Among them, revenue from injections declined but revenue from nasal sprays grew rapidly. We believe that “Migasil” is an imported brand originally developed and has differentiated advantages, and is expected to remain stable in the future.
Actively change the sales model and continue to make breakthroughs in innovative drug research and development. Starting in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company initiated transformation and transformation of the marketing management model and gradually established a self-operated system. We believe that the change in the model is conducive to optimizing sales expenses and driving the company's profit margin increase. The company continues to make breakthroughs in innovative drug research; KC1036 is undergoing clinical research on various indications such as digestive tumors and thymic tumors. Among them, advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma indications have entered phase III clinical research and advanced thymic tumor indications have entered phase II clinical research; phase III clinical trials of Jincao tablets have reached the main research end point and are expected to be declared for production soon.
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 to be 1,057 million yuan, 1,185 million yuan, and 1,365 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 12.1%, and 15.2% respectively; net profit to mother will be 181 million yuan, 212 million yuan and 251 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 16.9%, and 18.1%, respectively. Based on the closing price on May 20, the corresponding PE will be 26.6 times, 22.8 times, and 19.3 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The price reduction in the “Suling” medical insurance renewal negotiations exceeded expectations; the progress of new product release/approval was lower than expected.
