规模稳健增长，负债端优势放大。23 年公司资产总额达15.73 万亿元，同比+11.80%，其中客户贷款总额达8.15 万亿元，同比+13.02%，客户存款13.96 万亿元，同比+9.76%。业务规模实现稳健增长。23 年客户贷款平均收益率达4.13%，客户存款付息率为1.53%，净息差达2.01%，负债端较同业有优势。24Q1 公司资产总额达16.33 万亿元，客户贷款总额达8.52 万亿元，客户存款达14.63 万亿元，较23 年末同比+3.85%、+4.58%、+4.82%。业务规模延续稳健增长。负债端持续优化价值存款发展机制，推动负债品种、期限和利率结构优化，不断巩固负债成本既有优势。Incident: The Postbank released financial reports for fiscal year 23 and 24Q1, achieving operating income and net profit of 3425.07 billion yuan and 86.270 billion yuan, respectively, +2.25% and +1.23%, respectively; 24Q1 achieved operating income and net profit to mother of 894.30 billion yuan and 25.926 billion yuan, respectively, compared with +1.44% and -1.35%, respectively.
The weighted ROE for 23 and 24Q1 (annualized) was 10.85% and 12.36%, respectively, -1.04pct and -2.01pct, respectively. By the end of 24Q1, the company's defect rate was 0.84%, +1BP at the end of 23; provision coverage rate was 326.87%, compared to the end of 23 - 20.70 pct. The company plans to pay 2.61 yuan for every 10 shares and maintain a cash dividend ratio of 30% for the past three years.
Revenue is resilient, and net interest spreads are superior to peers. The company achieved revenue of 3425.07 billion yuan and 89.430 billion yuan in '23 and 24Q1. While the overall interest spreads in the banking industry narrowed, the company's revenue increased steadily. In 24Q1, it was the only bank with a positive revenue growth rate among the six major state-owned banks, showing strong revenue resilience during the declining revenue of the industry. Among them, 24Q1 achieved net interest income of 71,573 billion yuan, +3.13% year over year, which was the main driving force for revenue growth. The company's net interest spread was among the highest in the industry. As of the reporting period, the net interest spread was 1.92%, which is a narrower decline compared to the end of 2023 - 9BP. In terms of net profit attributable to mother, 23 and 24Q1 were 862.70 billion yuan and 25.926 billion yuan, respectively, compared to +1.23% and -1.35% year-on-year. Although profit growth slowed and turned negative, overall, it maintained a steady development trend.
The scale has grown steadily, and the debt-side advantage has increased. In '23, the company's total assets reached 15.73 trillion yuan, +11.80% year over year, of which total customer loans reached 8.15 trillion yuan, +13.02% year over year, and customer deposits were 13.96 trillion yuan, +9.76% year over year. The scale of the business achieved steady growth. The average yield on customer loans in '23 reached 4.13%, the interest rate on customer deposits was 1.53%, and the net interest spread reached 2.01%. The debt side has an advantage over peers. In 24Q1, the company's total assets reached 16.33 trillion yuan, total customer loans reached 8.52 trillion yuan, and customer deposits reached 14.63 trillion yuan, +3.85%, +4.58%, and +4.82% compared with the same period at the end of 23. The scale of the business continues to grow steadily. The debt side continues to optimize the value deposit development mechanism, promote the optimization of debt types, maturity and interest rate structures, and continuously consolidate the existing advantages of debt costs.
The deposit interest rate for the first quarter was 1.48%. Compared with the end of '23 - 5BP, the debt-side advantage was further amplified.
Excellent asset quality and strong risk protection capabilities. The company's defective rate at the end of '23 and 24Q1 was 0.83% and 0.84%. It remained stable at a low level. The overall asset quality was excellent, and it was at the top of the comparable industry.
The 24Q1 provision coverage rate was 326.87%, compared to 20.70 pct at the end of 23. Overall, risk compensation capacity is sufficient.
Investment advice: As one of the state-owned banks, the Postbank has higher revenue resilience and net interest spreads than comparable peers under overall pressure; the company has grown steadily, with obvious debt-side advantages; excellent asset quality and strong risk protection capabilities. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 348.6.74, 366.3.57, 390.51 billion yuan, net profit due to mother of 875.83, 910.89, 96.192 billion yuan, and BVPS of 10.61, 11.67, and 12.76 yuan/share. The PB valuation corresponding to the closing price on May 17 is 0.48, 0.43, and 0.40 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Net interest spreads declined beyond expectations, asset quality deteriorated, and credit investment fell short of expectations.