According to the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, from January to March of this year, China's completed shipbuilding volume was 12.35 million dwt, up 34.7% year on year; hand orders were 15.4.4 million dwt, up 34.5% year on year; new orders received 24.14 million dwt, up 59% year on year.

In terms of DWT, finished volume and handheld order volume indicators accounted for 53.8% and 56.7% of the global total, respectively.

The number of new orders received accounts for nearly 70% of the global total, reaching 69.6%.

In the first quarter, China's ship exports amounted to US$9.92 billion.

In terms of rankings, in the first quarter, China had 6, 5, and 6 enterprises respectively in the top 10 of the world's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders received, and handheld orders.

In addition, the concentration of the top 10 shipbuilding companies in the country was 67.4%, the concentration of the top 10 companies receiving new orders was 61.2%, and the concentration of the top 10 companies with handheld orders was 57%.

CITIC Securities said that global shipbuilding production capacity has continued to be cleared since 2009. As global capacity enters a new cycle of replacement, the production capacity of mainstream shipyards in China and South Korea is currently saturated, the industry is in a healthy and orderly state of competition, and the shipbuilding industry continues to thrive.

According to CITIC Securities research, supply flexibility in the shipbuilding industry is limited overall by 2027. It is estimated that by the end of 2027, global shipbuilding production capacity will increase 17% from 2022. Among them, the flexibility of restarting production capacity and expanding production capacity will be 6%/11%, respectively. The expansion is mainly the production capacity of large LNG carriers with high added value incremental ships.

The supply side continues to be tight and there is a lack of flexibility to support the continuous rise in new ship prices. Currently, the Clarksons new ship price index is 185 points. Reviewing the ship price trend in the past three-wheel shipbuilding cycle, we judge that the high point of the new ship price index will be 240-250 points in this cycle. Currently, ship prices are still in the middle of this upward cycle.

At present, CITIC Securities Research continues to be firmly optimistic about the current shipbuilding boom cycle, as well as leading companies in the segmented industry chain that have profoundly benefited from this shipbuilding upward cycle, maintaining the shipbuilding industry's “better than the market” rating.

Companies related to the shipbuilding industry chain:

China Shipbuilding Defense (00317): China Shipbuilding Defense is the only “A+H” platform under China Shipbuilding Group and a core global shipbuilding enterprise. There is a large gap in the number of DWT between the military and civilian ship types produced by the company, so the production capacity of military and civilian shipyards is not shared. With the gradual delivery of high value+high added value+high gross margin ship models, the company's profitability will continue to improve. If ship prices continue to rise in the future, there is still room for improvement in civilian ships' production capacity; however, the PB valuation of China Shipbuilding Defense (H Shares) is significantly lower than that of comparable companies. The company achieved operating income of 2,807 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 47.82% over the previous year; net profit of 15.37 million yuan after deducting net profit from non-return to mother was 25.23 million yuan, turning a loss into profit over the previous year, mainly contributing to a significant improvement in gross margin. In particular, the net cash flow from the company's operating activities reached 3.312 billion yuan, an increase of 64.36% over the previous year.