Key points of investment
Incident: “Singer 2024” led the ratings gap for the second issue, CVB rating of 0.62, 2.67%, ranked first on provincial TV in the same period. The share was 1.5 times that of the previous installment, 1.8 times that of the provincial health division second in the same period, breaking the record for the highest variety show ratings in the provincial health market since this year; CSM's national network ratings of 0.93, with a share of 4.9%, ranked 1st among all channels; Kuyun had an average ratings rate of 0.94, with a share of 5.05%, which was 1.6 times that of the first issue. The highest record. During the broadcast, Huan.com's ratings peaked at 1.41, while ratings remained more than double that of Provincial Health's second place for a long time.
“The Singer 2024” is expected to gain further investment thanks to its popularity. According to the second installment, the program has already received six advertisers. Among them, Junlebao Simple Alcohol is the exclusive title. Other partners include Vivo, Tomson Beijian, Wuliangye, Baisuishan, and Parquet. 1) There is a high level of discussion on social media, and the level of topics is expected to further drive investment. According to the “Daily Economic News” statistics, as of May 15, on platforms such as Weibo, Hongxing Erke, Hometown Chicken, Spicy Prince, Spring Airlines, Jierou, etc., spanning various fields such as apparel, food, daily care, manufacturing, and air transportation, etc., have successively “applied to compete” with “Singer 2024.” 2) The actual visibility of advertisements in live streaming mode is higher or higher, further increasing advertisers' willingness to post. We believe that in the live broadcast mode, the actual audience viewing time for brand advertisements may be higher than in the recorded broadcast mode, and the delivery effect is better, which is expected to attract more advertisers to run.
An international perspective to promote cultural outings. The program brought in a number of overseas guests, including Chanté Moore (US), Faouzia (Canada), Adam Lambert (US), etc. “Singer 2024” is highly influential internationally, with a total overseas coverage of over 21.77 million and more than 2.88 million broadcasts. The cumulative number of online viewers of the second live broadcast on the Mango TV International App was nearly 4 times that of the first installment. Single-day membership revenue hit a new high this year, surging 153%. We believe that at present, the international version of Mango TV is still in a high growth stage with a relatively low base compared to the domestic market. As Mango's overseas layout continues to deepen, cooperation has been reached with parts of Southeast Asia. This time, “The Singer 2024” invited many North American stars to participate, which is expected to help the platform enter the European and American markets. The European and American streaming media markets are fiercely competitive, with platforms such as Netflix and Disney+ taking leading positions. With its advantages in variety shows, Mango TV is expected to attract users through differentiated play and raise awareness in the European and American markets.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect that in 2024-2026, the company's revenue will be 162.22/176.93/19.0.09 billion yuan, 10.9%/9.1%/7.4% YoY; net profit to mother 20.03/23.00/25.57 billion yuan, or -43.7%/14.8%/11.2% YoY. We believe “The Singer 2024” is expected to simultaneously drive revenue from the advertising business and membership business, and drive performance growth. At the same time, the program's overseas sales are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the platform. Currently, domestic streaming platforms are becoming mature, so going overseas may become an important increase. Looking ahead to the future, the platform has a rich list of variety shows and series, and the content supply advantage remains the same; a vertical screen skit channel has been launched to further expand target users and broaden revenue sources. Furthermore, the company actively explores AI/XR and other fields. Technology empowers innovation, cost reduction and efficiency, and gives the company a long-term growth logic. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: advertising recovery falls short of expectations, risk of leaving the core team, risk of artists breaking discipline, increased competition, etc.