On the evening of the 21st, Beijing time, US stocks opened with mixed ups and downs on Tuesday. This week, the market focused on Nvidia's earnings report, the Microsoft Build Global Developers Conference, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.
As of press release, the NASDAQ is down 0.23%, the S&P 500 is down 0.05%, and the Dow is up 0.05%.
The performance of US stocks last week received a lot of attention. Due to renewed hopes for inflation and monetary policy conditions, the Dow surpassed 40,000 points for the first time last Thursday and closed above that mark for the first time on Friday.
Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase, is still pessimistic about the outlook for the US stock market. In a research report published on Monday, he urged investors not to buy stocks. But at the same time, he acknowledged that at a time when global stock markets rose to record highs in the past year, this negative outlook has damaged J.P. Morgan's model portfolio allocation.
The strategist cited a range of reasons for maintaining a pessimistic stance on the outlook for US stocks, including overvaluation, the possibility that interest rates will remain limited for a longer period of time, rising inflation data, consumer pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, believes that driven by corporate earnings reports, the Dow is expected to rise 50% to reach 60,000 points by 2030, and the S&P 500 index may rise to 8,000 points. The strategist notes that the Dow has a CAGR of 7% and the S&P 500 has a CAGR of 7.1%.
Yardeni said, “This target level is based on an expected price-earnings ratio of 20 times and expected earnings per share of $400, up 60% from the estimated 250 dollars per share this year. We think this is possible, in our 'Roaring 2020s' scenario.”
The AI sector will be the focus of the market this week. Microsoft will host the Build Global Developers Conference from Tuesday to Thursday. Nvidia, which claims to be the leading stock in the AI industry, will release financial reports after the US stock market closes on Wednesday.
Nvidia's earnings report will undoubtedly be a major factor affecting the market. Goldman Sachs trading previously referred to Nvidia as “the most important stock on Earth.”
Goldman Sachs strategists said that stock investors are preparing for a sudden increase in market volatility, and upcoming events such as Nvidia's earnings report may increase market volatility.
UBS analyst Jason Draho said, “The latest batch of economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve data provides macro-level support for the market to continue to rise. Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report this week could boost the development of artificial intelligence.”
A number of Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches on Tuesday, including Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (Christopher Waller), Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin (Tom Barkin), and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic (Raphael Bostic). Traders will keep a close eye on what these Federal Reserve officials say about the future path of interest rates.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller said it would take “a few more months” of good inflation data to consider cutting interest rates.
Earlier, Cleveland Fed President Meister hinted on Monday that there is less room to cut interest rates than previously anticipated. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson said on Monday that it is still too early to determine whether the slowdown in inflation will “continue for a long time,” while Vice Chairman Barr said that suppressive policies will continue for more time.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting from the end of April to the beginning of May this Wednesday.
Individual stocks in focus
Most star tech stocks declined. Nvidia, AMD, and Amazon fell about 1%, Meta and Google fell slightly, and Tesla bucked the trend and rose about 2%.
Most popular Chinese securities declined. JD, Baidu, and Ideal fell about 3%, Ctrip and Ali fell about 2%, and Xiaopeng bucked the trend and surged more than 19%.
In terms of individual stocks,$XPeng (XPEV.US)$The increase surged by more than 19%, and the net loss in Q1 narrowed.
$JD.com (JD.US)$It fell by more than 3%, and it is proposed to sell US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.
$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$After the results, it fell more than 6%, and Barclays lowered its target price.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It fell more than 1%, and reports say Amazon AWS has suspended Nvidia's Hopper chip orders to wait for new, more powerful chips.
editor/tolk