Introduction to this report:
The company announced its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The results were lower than expected due to the company's significant inventory and fixed asset price reduction preparations. The company continues to focus on technological innovation, and the release of “Terry” silicon wafers and BC batteries is worth looking forward to.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company announced its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The performance was lower than expected due to the company's significant inventory and fixed asset price reduction preparations. Considering the impact of recent intensification of industry competition, the 2024-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.54 (-1.59) and 0.97 (-1.41) yuan, and the 2026 EPS forecast was added by 1.21 yuan. Currently, the average valuation of the photovoltaic industry in 2025 is about 10 times. Considering that the company has obvious competitive advantages as a leading enterprise and sufficient cash management, it is expected that strong people will thrive through the cycle. PE 22X will be given in 2025, and the target price will be lowered to 21.34 (-15.86) yuan.
Shipments are growing rapidly, and the leading trend is steady and far-reaching. In 2023, the company's silicon wafer and module shipments continued to grow rapidly, achieving 125.42 GW of silicon wafers, an increase of 47.45%; external battery sales of 5.90 GW; and module shipments of 67.52 GW, an increase of 44.40% year on year. By the end of 2023, the company's own silicon wafer/battery/module production capacity reached 170/80/120 GW. Company plan: In the next three years, the annual production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers will reach 200GW, of which “Terry” silicon wafers will account for more than 80%; the annual production capacity of BC batteries will reach 100GW; and the annual production capacity of monocrystalline modules will reach 150GW. The 2024 business goal is to achieve about 135GW of silicon wafers and 90-100GW of battery plus modules.
Continuing to focus on technological innovation, the release of “Terry” silicon wafers and BC batteries is worth looking forward to. The company's newly developed “Terry” silicon wafers use a new TrCz crystal drawing process, which has significant advantages such as uniform resistivity, good absorption effect, and full platform support. Mass production is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2024. In terms of batteries, the company successfully developed HPBC second-generation products with high conversion efficiency, low attenuation rate, and better low light performance and temperature coefficient. The new product is scheduled to be launched in the second half of 2024.
catalysts. Supply chain prices are stable, new technologies are unveiled, and large orders are signed.
Risk warning. Increased competition and overseas trade protection risks brought about by the unexpected expansion of industry production.