① According to data from options analysis company Trade Alert, the magnitude of Nvidia's unilateral fluctuation may reach 8.7%, which is equivalent to market capitalization fluctuations exceeding 200 billion US dollars; ② On February 22 of this year, the first trading day after the last announcement of earnings reports, Nvidia's stock price soared 16.4%.
Financial Services Association, May 21 (Editor Zhao Hao) In the early morning of this Thursday (May 23), Beijing time, US chip company Nvidia will announce its results report for the first fiscal quarter of the 2025 fiscal year ending April 28, 2024; a conference call will also be held at 05:00 a.m. on the same day.
Nvidia closed up 2.49% on Monday, driving the NASDAQ index to a new record high, while the Dow, which does not include Nvidia, fell nearly 0.5%. As the main line of the technology sector and the US stock market as a whole, Nvidia's performance is an important weather vane for artificial intelligence, so much so that Goldman Sachs Group analysts previously called it “the most important stock on Earth.”
Currently, traders are pricing potential fluctuations in Nvidia's stock price. According to data from the options analysis company Trade Alert, the magnitude of the stock's unilateral fluctuation may reach 8.7%, which is equivalent to a market capitalization fluctuation of more than 200 billion US dollars. This figure is larger than the total market value of nearly 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index.
Judging by conventional measures, the one-sided fluctuation of 200 billion US dollars is huge. However, judging from the performance of Nvidia's stock price after the release of earnings reports in recent years, it can only be said that it is average. According to Trade Alert calculations, the average fluctuation on the first day after the results expected by traders over the past eight quarters was 12%.
On February 22 of this year, the first trading day since the last financial report was announced, Nvidia's stock price soared 16.4%, higher than the 13.8% forecast by Trade Alert at the time.
Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at the US investment company Susquehanna Financial Group, said that both expected and actual fluctuations at the time were quite high.
However, a year ago, on May 25, 2023, Nvidia surged 24.4% on the trading day after the earnings report, which is more than double the 10.9% expected by Trade Alert, but the total market value of the company did not exceed 1 trillion US dollars at the time, so when converted to market value, it is still slightly lower than the current forecast of 200 billion US dollars.
Matt Amberson, founder of options analysis service company Orats, pointed out that Nvidia's increase during the year was huge, but traders have not become too conservative. However, Amberson added that traders expect the upward trend to be as drastic as the downtrend.
By the close of trading on Monday, Nvidia's stock price had returned to a record high. Since the beginning of the year, it has risen more than 91%, with a market capitalization of more than 2.33 trillion US dollars. It is the third most valuable listed company in the world, after Microsoft and Apple. Wall Street has discovered that in addition to driving the upward momentum of software giants, Nvidia's influence is becoming wider and wider.
Bank of America strategists wrote in a Monday report that the role of AI is expanding to electricity, commodities, and utilities, and Nvidia is representing more than just one company. The bank expects Nvidia to drive earnings growth of 11% in the next 12 months, compared to a 37% increase over the past 12 months.
According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market expects Nvidia's single-quarter revenue to rise to US$24.65 billion from US$7.19 billion a year ago, and earnings per share will reach US$5.59.
In response, Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Yingtou Securities, said that if performance falls short of expectations, it may dampen enthusiasm for AI concept trading.