维持“增持” 评级，下调目标价至 62.28元。2023年实现营收 15亿元（YoY-16.8%），主要原因为特气价格下降，实现扣非归母净利润1.61 亿元（YoY-20%），业绩不及预期。景气回暖及订单仍需等待，下调2024-2025 年EPS 为1.73（-0.68）/2.34（-0.82）元，新增2026年EPS 为3.04 元。参考可比公司以及公司顺利拓展海外业务，给予2024 年36xPE，下调目标价至62.28 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Product prices and downstream prosperity dragged down, and the 2023 performance fell short of expectations. The logic of expanding categories and expanding overseas will be realized in 2024H2.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “Overweight” rating, the target price was lowered to 62.28 yuan. Revenue of 1.5 billion yuan (YoY -16.8%) was achieved in 2023. The main reason was the decline in specialty gas prices, resulting in net profit of 161 million yuan (YoY -20%) after deduction. The results fell short of expectations. The recovery of the economy and orders still have to wait. EPS for 2024-2025 will be reduced to 1.73 (-0.68) /2.34 (-0.82) yuan, and the 2026 EPS will be added to 3.04 yuan. Referring to comparable companies and companies successfully expanding overseas business, they were given 36xPE in 2024, the target price was lowered to 62.28 yuan, and the “gain” rating was maintained.
The increase in 2024Q1's share of domestic revenue hedges against the impact of the semiconductor industry's boom falling short of expectations. The company achieved revenue of 333 million yuan (-7.3%) in 2024Q1, mainly due to the fact that the recovery in the semiconductor industry did not meet expectations and affected the pace of orders placed by major overseas customers. The gross margin of the domestic business was 4-8 pct higher than that of the overseas business. The increase in proportion drove the overall gross margin to 33.04% (YoY+2.79pct). 2024Q1 achieved net profit without deduction of 44 million yuan (YoY +12.44%), which is in line with expectations.
Expanding revenue is the key to the company's operations. Two major initiatives, adding special gas categories and expanding overseas markets, will deliver results in 2024H2. Net interest rates are gradually improving, and the company needs to increase revenue to expand profit scale: 1) Continue to increase categories. In 2023, the company launched 4 electronic-grade products such as C4F6. Germanium passed Samsung's 5nm process certification and used ethsilane as an entry point to develop silicon-based products; 2) Develop overseas markets. Thailand's on-site gas production projects increased to 3, and after the merger and acquisition of AIG, the overseas sales model was changed to direct sales, which is expected to increase the gross profit margin of overseas business.
Long-term loans and debt conversions increase interest costs, and it will still take time to raise production capacity. The company issued 646 million yuan of convertible bonds in March 2023, while long-term loans increased to 235 million yuan. The construction period for the fund-raising project is 2 years, and the financial expenses generated during this period will affect net profit performance. We estimate that interest expenses for the whole year are about 0.3 million yuan.
Risk warning: 1) Increased production capacity affects prices; 2) The introduction of new electronic specialty gas products falls short of expectations.
