铜箔加工费下滑，行业盈利触底。受下游需求放缓和铜箔行业新增产能大幅增加影响，铜箔行业加工费持续下行，根据IFIND，2023 年6μm 锂电铜箔加工费均值为2.5 万元/吨，同比22 年下滑41.8%，24 年Q1 行业平均加工费为1.6万元/吨，同比下滑51.2%，环比23Q4 下滑22.2%，行业整体加工费大幅下滑下，公司盈利因此承压，2023Q4/2024Q1 公司毛利率分别为4.2%/0.4%，分别同比下滑12.9/13.0pcts，2023Q4/2024Q1 公司归母净利率分别为3.0%/-5.2%，分别同比下滑10.5/11.2pcts。Matters:
The company released the 2023 annual report and the report for the first quarter of 2024. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.42 billion yuan, a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, a net profit of -87.1% year-on-year, and realized net profit withholding of 100 million yuan, or -98.4% year-on-year; in the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 960 million yuan, +29% year-on-year, and realized net profit to mother of -50 million, -212.3% year-on-year.
Commentary:
Copper foil processing fees have declined, and industry profits have bottomed out. Affected by the slowdown in downstream demand and the sharp increase in new production capacity in the copper foil industry, processing costs in the copper foil industry continued to decline. According to IFIND, the average processing cost of 6 μm lithium copper foil in 2023 was 25,000 yuan/ton, down 41.8% year on year. The average processing cost of the Q1 industry in 24 was 16,000 yuan/ton, down 51.2% year on year, and 22.2% month on month. The overall processing costs of the industry fell sharply. As a result, the company's gross margin of 2023Q4/2024Q1 was 4.2%/0.4%, respectively. The year-on-year decline was 12.9/13.0 pcts, and the 2023Q4/2024Q1 companies' net interest rate to mother was 3.0%/-5.2%, respectively, down 10.5/11.2 pcts year-on-year, respectively.
Copper foil sales and revenue continue to grow, and equity incentives assess copper foil shipments. The company shipped 44,000 tons in '23, an increase of 38% over the previous year. Among them, lithium battery copper foil sold 32,000 tons, PCB copper foil sold 12,000 tons, and the company's nominal production capacity reached 55,500 tons in '23. The company's 24Q1 revenue was 960 million, +29% year over month, and continued to grow year on month. The draft equity incentive assessment target was copper foil shipments. The 24-27 assessment copper foil sales volume was not less than 5.5/6.5/8.0/100,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%/18%/23%/25%, respectively.
Stable financial resources and high investment in R&D. At the end of 24Q1, the company's balance ratio was 35.93%, which remained low, with monetary capital of $72 billion and transactional financial assets of $1.31 billion (mainly large deposits). In 23, the company invested 135 million yuan in R&D, +24% over the same period. It continued to increase investment in research and development of new products, carried out industry-university-research cooperation with many universities, and increased research and development in the field of electronic materials and the application of new technologies.
Investment advice: The company maintained the growth in copper foil shipments and revenue with excellent cost control, but due to increased competition in the industry, the company's profit continued to be under pressure in the short term. Considering the overall losses in the 24Q1 industry, we expect that the industry's profit level may have bottomed out, and the company's profit level is expected to gradually recover. We lowered the company's 24-25 net profit forecast to 0.6/160 million yuan respectively (the original forecast was 30/380 million yuan, respectively), and the net profit forecast for 24-26 was 280 million yuan, respectively. /1.52 yuan, maintaining the “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations; competition intensified due to accelerated industry expansion; progress in new technology exceeded expectations and squeezed the traditional lithium battery copper foil market.
