维持“增持”评级 。预计公司 2024-2026 年净利润分别为 21.34、30.45、41.04 亿元，考虑A/H 股光伏行业估值水平，给予2024 年20 倍PE，对应目标市值426.8 亿元，对应目标价1.71 港元。维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company has a deep accumulation of granular silicon technology, rapid expansion of production capacity, and continuous improvement of product processes. The company's granular silicon products are low cost and high quality to help cross the cycle, and the differentiated advantages of carbon footprint are expected to be prominent.
Summary:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be $21.34, 30.45 and $4.104 billion, respectively. Considering the valuation level of the A/H PV industry, 20 times PE is given in 2024, corresponding to a target market value of $42.68 billion and a target price of HK$1.71. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
The production capacity of granular silicon is rapidly expanding, and the product process continues to improve. The company disclosed its results for the first quarter of 2024, achieving revenue of 5.47 billion yuan and net profit of 33 million yuan to mother. By the end of 2023, the company's nominal production capacity of granular silicon reached 420,000 tons, with an effective production capacity of 340,000 tons. It is expected that by the end of 24, the company's production capacity will increase to 500,000 tons. In March 2024, the company disclosed that the turbidity level of granular silicon had all been reduced to less than 120 NTU, which is 75% below 100 NTU, and is expected to continue to decrease. It is also at the top level in the industry in terms of metal impurity control, leading the application effect in the downstream N-type market. Currently, the proportion of total metal impurities ≤ 0.5 ppbw of 5 elements of granular silicon exceeds 90%, and the proportion of total metal impurities of 18 elements ≤ 1 ppbw exceeds 60%, and it is expected that the level of metal impurity control will be further improved.
Low cost and high quality help cross the cycle, and the differentiated advantages of carbon footprint are expected to be prominent. The company's granular silicon is produced using a silane flow bed process. Compared with the mainstream Siemens method in the industry, electricity bill consumption is significantly reduced, the cost advantage is obvious, and it is suitable for continuous direct drawing single crystal processes. Currently, the silicon industry is facing the double pressure of a continuous decline in prices and a continuous increase in demand for N-type quality. The company's granular silicon products benefit from the power cost advantage on the cost side, continuously improve metal impurity control on the quality side, and the effects of N-type applications have been widely verified in the market. The company's granular silicon products have outstanding advantages of low cost and high quality, and product barriers are high, which is expected to cross the industry cycle. Currently, the international market requires an increase in the carbon footprint of photovoltaic products, and the carbon emissions of photovoltaic products are mainly due to the production energy consumption of polysilicon, of which electricity consumption is the main source of carbon emissions.
Due to its low electricity consumption, granular silicon is expected to have a differentiated carbon footprint advantage in the future.
Catalysts: Long supply chain orders have been signed, downstream granular silicon verification is progressing smoothly, and carbon footprint requirements have increased.
Risk warning: Overseas trade protection, the impact of unexpected technical failures.
