Huazhu Group-S (1179.HK): Store opening significantly accelerated and profitability remained high in the off-season, exceeding expectations

中信建投證券 · May 21 · Researches

核心观点

2024Q1 公司实现收入52.78 亿元，同比+17.8%，不含DH 为42.5亿元，+18.1%，均超出此前指引；调整EBITDA 为14.21 亿元，同比+37.8%，其中legacy-Huazhu 为14.87 亿元，+31.7%，DH 为-0.66 亿元（23Q1 为-0.98 亿）。Legacy-Huazhu 经营利润率26.6%，+3.8pct，Q1 虽为淡季但盈利能力依然强劲。24Q1 公司总店及同店RevPAR 分别同比23Q1+3.1%/0.9%,去年一季度需求报复性反弹使得价格基数较高，但公司入住率保持恢复，同时整体门店数据受益与新店ADR 及结构影响房价同比提升，依然保持了领先水平。

24Q1 公司净开423 家，为近16 个季度内最高，且Q1 通常并不是开店旺季，展店情况超预期表现。同时pipeline 为3172 家，环比+74 家，签约同时提升，今年1800 的开店目标预计完成难度不大，头部的市占率提升逻辑表现明显。

事件

公司公布2024 年一季度业绩：2024Q1 公司实现收入52.78 亿元，同比+17.8%，不含DH 为42.5 亿元，+18.1%，DH 为10.3 亿元，+16.6%。归母净利润6.59 亿元，调整后归母净利润7.71 亿元，+101%（Q4 为5.17 亿，环比+49%）。24Q1 经营性现金净流入8.86亿元，截止季度末，现金及等价物合计59 亿元。

简评

国内利润率表现强劲，海外计划持续降低成本提升效率此前公司指引24Q1 整体收入/不含DH 收入分别为同比+12~16%/+11%~15% ，本季度继续超预期表现。其中Legacy-Huazhu 直营21.1 亿元，+4.6%，加盟20.4 亿元，+32.9%，根据turnover 倒算其加盟take rate 为12.8%，环比+0.49pct 进一步上行，自有体系收费能力持续增强领先。公司本季度调整项目新增外汇净收益（亏损）及出售投资收益（亏损），更好反映核心经营业务情况，一季度公司调整EBITDA 为14.21 亿元，同比+37.8%，其中legacy-Huazhu 为14.87 亿元，+31.7%，DH 为-0.66 亿元（23Q1 为-0.98 亿，Q4 为-0.06 亿），国内经营杠杆作用体现，使得最终归母净利润翻倍增长。Legacy-Huazhu 经营利润率26.6%，+3.8pct，再创Q1 淡季新高，销售+管理费用率13.05%，+1.1pct，放开后费用投放逐步加大趋于正常。海外部分仍有亏损，公司将继续降低成本和提高效率，并计划转型为更轻资产模式。公司预期Q2 收入+7%~11%，剔除DH+7%~11%。

一季度经营指标在去年高基数下仍获得增长，门店结构贡献持续2024Q1 公司整体Occ/ADR/RevPAR 分别为77.2%/280 元/216 元，同比2019Q1-3.4pct/+26.7%/+21.3%，同比2023Q1+1.6pct/+1%/+3.1%（vs 首旅RevPAR+0.1%，锦江有限服务-1.55%）。2024Q1 公司同店Occ/ADR/RevPAR 同比23Q1+1.1pct/-0.6%/+0.9%（vs 首旅RevPAR-1.9%，锦江有限服务-3.38%），其中经济型同店Occ/ADR/RevPAR 同比去年同期+1pct/-0.6%/+0.7pct，中端及高档则分别为+1.3pct/-0.7%/+1%。去年一季度需求报复性反弹使得价格基数较高，但公司入住率保持恢复，同时整体门店数据受益与新店ADR 及结构影响房价同比提升，依然保持了领先水平。

开店签约同步高增，展店能力充分体现马太效应2024Q1 不含DH 总开569 家，关店148 家，净开421 家，另外DH 净增2 家，公司一季度净开数量为近16 个季度内最高，且Q1 通常并不是开店旺季，展店情况超预期表现。同时pipeline 为3172 家，环比+74 家，签约也在同步提升，并未因开店而下降，公司今年1800 的开店目标预计完成难度不大。净开中汉庭+146 家，全季+194家，两大核心品牌持续放量，中高档+43 家也在稳步加速。截止Q1 公司酒店总数达9817 家（其中DH133 家），预计年中将突破万店，头部的市占率提升逻辑表现明显。

盈利预测与投资建议：考虑调整项目更新，我们预计2024-2026 年公司实现调整后净利润46.07/55.97/66.82 亿元，对应PE 分别为21/18/15 倍，维持增持评级。

风险分析

1、宏观环境变化使得商旅需求受到一定影响：酒店商旅需求与经济的繁荣程度直接相关，若宏观环境相对较弱，则商务出差需求也会下降，从而使得酒店行业入住率承压，进一步向房价传导；2、疫情后加盟商开店信心恢复较慢造成影响开店不及预期：由于前期酒店行业受到的冲击较为明显，可能使得短期内加盟商考虑谨慎，开店动力不足，进而导致公司扩张速度不及预期风险；3、酒店市场中高端和下沉竞争趋势：中高端酒店竞争区域激烈，下沉市场逐步提升酒店品质，若存在酒店定位风险则可能影响整体品牌认可度。

Core views

2024Q1 achieved revenue of 5.278 billion yuan, +17.8% year over year, excluding DH of 4.25 billion yuan, +18.1%, all exceeding previous guidelines; adjusted EBITDA was 1,421 billion yuan, +37.8% year over year, of which Legacy-Huazhu was 1,487 billion yuan, +31.7%, and DH was -0.66 billion yuan (23Q1 was -98 million yuan). Legacy-Huazhu's operating margin was 26.6%, +3.8pct. Although Q1 was an off-season, profitability was still strong. The 24Q1 company's main store and same-store RevPAR were +3.1%/0.9%, respectively. The retaliatory rebound in demand in the first quarter of last year made the price base high, but the company's occupancy rate continued to recover. At the same time, overall store data benefited from the ADR and structure of new stores affected the year-on-year increase in housing prices, and remained at the leading level.

24Q1 had a net opening of 423 companies, the highest in the past 16 quarters, and Q1 was usually not the peak season for opening stores, and the showroom situation exceeded expectations. At the same time, the number of pipelines was 3,172, compared to +74, and the number of contracts increased at the same time. It is expected that it will not be difficult to complete this year's 1800 store opening target, and the leading market share increase logic is obvious.

occurrences

The company announced its results for the first quarter of 2024:2024Q1 achieved revenue of 5.278 billion yuan, +17.8% year-on-year, excluding DH of 4.25 billion yuan, +18.1%, and DH of 1.03 billion yuan, +16.6%. Net profit to mother was 659 million yuan, and adjusted net profit to mother was 771 million yuan, +101% (Q4 was 517 million, +49% month-on-month). The net operating cash inflow for 24Q1 was 886 million yuan. As of the end of the quarter, cash and equivalents totaled $5.9 billion.

Brief review

Domestic profit margins showed strong performance, and overseas plans continued to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Previously, the company's 24Q1 overall revenue/revenue without DH was +12-16%/+11% to 15% year-on-year, respectively, and continued to exceed expectations this quarter. Among them, Legacy-Huazhu directly managed 2.11 billion yuan, +4.6%, and joined 2.04 billion yuan, +32.9%. According to the calculation of turnover, its franchise take rate was 12.8%, a further increase of +0.49pct over the previous month, and the charging capacity of its own system continued to increase and lead. The company added net foreign exchange income (loss) and sales investment income (loss) to better reflect the core business situation. In the first quarter, the company adjusted EBITDA of 1,421 billion yuan, +37.8% year over year, of which Legacy-Huazhu was 1,487 billion yuan, +31.7%, DH was -0.66 billion yuan (23Q1 was -98 million yuan, Q4 was -06 billion), reflected in domestic operating leverage, which doubled the net profit to the mother. Legacy-Huazhu's operating profit margin was 26.6%, +3.8pct, setting a new high in the Q1 off-season. The sales+management expenses ratio was 13.05%, +1.1 pct. After liberalization, the gradual increase in expenses became normal. The overseas portion is still losing money, and the company will continue to reduce costs and improve efficiency, and plans to switch to a lighter asset model. The company expects Q2 revenue +7% to 11%, excluding DH +7% to 11%.

The operating indicators for the first quarter continued to grow under last year's high base. The overall OCC/ADR/RevPar contribution of the 2024Q1 company was 77.2% /280 yuan/216 yuan, respectively, compared with 2019Q1-3.4pct/ +26.7%/+21.3%, and 2023Q1+1.6pct/ +1%/+3.1% (vs First Travel RevPar +0.1%, Jinjiang Limited Service -1.55%). 2024Q1's same-store OCC/ADR/RevPar was 23q1+1.1pct/ -0.6%/+0.9% (vs First Travel RevPar -1.9%, Jinjiang Limited Service -3.38%). Among them, the OCC/ADR/RevPar was +1pct/ -0.6% /+0.7pct compared to the same period last year, while the mid-range and high-end were +1.3 pct/ -0.7%/+1%, respectively. The price base was high due to a retaliatory rebound in demand in the first quarter of last year, but the company's occupancy rate continued to recover. At the same time, overall store data benefited from the year-on-year increase in housing prices due to the ADR and structure of new stores, and remained at the leading level.

Store openings increased at the same time. Exhibit capacity fully reflects the Matthew effect. Excluding DH in 2024Q1, a total of 569 stores were closed, and 421 were net. In addition, DH had a net increase of 2. The company's net sales volume in the first quarter was the highest in nearly 16 quarters, and Q1 was usually not the peak season for opening stores, and the exhibition situation exceeded expectations. At the same time, the number of pipelines was 3,172, compared to +74, and the number of contracts increased at the same time, and did not decline due to store openings. The company's goal of opening 1,800 stores this year is not expected to be very difficult. The net opening of the Chinese and Hanting stores was +146, and the full season was +194. The two major core brands continued to expand, and the medium to high-end +43 companies were also steadily accelerating. As of Q1, the total number of hotels in the company reached 9817 (including DH133), and it is expected to exceed 10,000 stores in the middle of the year. The logic of increasing the market share of the leading market share is obvious.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Considering the adjustment project update, we expect the company to achieve adjusted net profit of 46.07/55.97/6.682 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding PE of 21/18/15 times, respectively, to maintain an increase in holdings rating.

Risk analysis

1. Changes in the macro environment have affected business travel demand to a certain extent: demand for hotel business travel is directly related to the degree of economic prosperity. If the macro environment is relatively weak, business travel demand will also fall, putting pressure on the hotel industry's occupancy rate, which will further spread to housing prices; 2. The slow recovery of franchisees' confidence in opening stores after the pandemic has fallen short of expectations: due to the obvious impact on the hotel industry in the early stages, it may cause franchisees to be cautious in the short term, and the motivation to open stores is insufficient, which in turn causes the company's expansion rate to fall short of the expected risk; 3. Mid-range and high-end competition trends in the hotel market: high-end The competition area for hotels is fierce, and the sinking market is gradually improving the quality of hotels. If there is a risk of hotel positioning, it may affect overall brand recognition.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

华住集团-S(1179.HK)：开店显著加速超预期 淡季盈利能力维持高位

Huazhu Group-S (1179.HK): Store opening significantly accelerated and profitability remained high in the off-season, exceeding expectations

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

华住集团-S(1179.HK)：开店显著加速超预期淡季盈利能力维持高位