Incidents:
The company issued the “Notice on the Company's Major Breakthroughs in Mid-IR Femtosecond Laser Technology and Key Technologies in the Field of Medical Applications”, indicating that the company has recently made major breakthroughs in the key technology of mid-infrared femtosecond lasers and their application in the medical field. Comments on this are as follows:
Break through medical laser technology and enter the 100 billion medical and aesthetic circuit. According to data from the New Oxygen Research Institute and Frost & Sullivan, the non-surgical medical and aesthetic market is estimated to reach 415.7 billion yuan in 2030. According to estimates that optoelectronics will account for 53.30% of non-surgical projects in 2022, the photoelectric medical and aesthetic consumer market is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2030. The medical and aesthetic circuit has light luxury attributes. Currently, China's penetration rate is the lowest in the world, only about 4-5%, less than one-fifth of Korea's, less than one-third of the US. Importers occupy 80% of the market share of energy source medical and aesthetic equipment in China's formal medical and aesthetic institutions, and most domestic brands only occupy the middle- and low-end markets. The long-wave infrared continuously tunable desktop femtosecond laser (LWIRFS) successfully developed by the company this time has a tuning range of 5-11 μm, maximum output power > 1 W, maximum pulse energy > 2 μJ, pulse width <300 fs, and a repetition frequency of 500 kHz. It is a pioneering product in the world. It can be used in scenarios such as collagen regeneration and rejuvenation medical and aesthetic applications, dermal exfoliative and non-exfoliative minimally invasive treatment, minimally invasive corneal cutting and transplantation, minimally invasive ablation of atherosclerosis, and selective ablation of pancreatic tumors. The company has successfully entered the medical/aesthetic circuit and is expected to create a new performance growth point.
There are plenty of orders in hand, and the traditional main business is expected to recover. The company's current revenue structure is dominated by lithium battery equipment. In 2023, the company's power battery laser and automation equipment accounted for 76.6% of its revenue.
According to the company's 2023 annual report, the company signed new orders of about 4.8 billion yuan (tax included) for the whole year of 2023. As of December 31, 2023, on-hand orders were about 7.5 billion yuan (tax included). Sufficient on-hand orders provided a strong guarantee for the company's 2024 performance. According to investor research information released by the company, the company expects that new orders in 2024 will increase significantly compared to 2023. Among them, the lithium battery business will increase dramatically with overseas orders, the PV industry will also grow steadily with the development and mass production of new technologies, and the consumer 3C business will also achieve steady growth with the development of new major customers. The company's new orders in 2023 were greatly affected by the investment cycle of the lithium battery industry. As the overseas layout of the company's lithium battery business accelerates and continues to develop application scenarios for the company's products in the fields of photovoltaics, 3C, and medical care, overall orders are expected to recover.
Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 3.89, 5.28, and 647 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE values of 18, 13, and 11 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Expansion into new fields falls short of expectations; profit forecasts and valuation models fail