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摩根大通CEO“谨慎悲观”,警告通胀和战争风险

J.P. Morgan CEO is “cautiously pessimistic”, warns of inflation and risk of war

Golden10 Data ·  May 21 11:58

“Inflation is likely to reach 4% next year. There is nothing anyone can do, interest rates may be surprising...”

On Monday morning local time, investors flocked to J.P. Morgan Chase's headquarters in Manhattan to listen to CEO Jamie Dimon (Jamie Dimon) talk about several key topics. From regulations that are crushing the US economy to geopolitics, inflation, potential market downturn, and monetary policy, Dimon addressed the most critical issues.

The original topic was stock buybacks, and Dimon said, “At the current price, we're not planning to buy back a lot of shares.” He made this response in response to a question about whether stress testing would allow J.P. Morgan to launch a new repurchase program in the second half of this year.

“We're not going to tell you anything about share buybacks at all,” Dimon said, adding that he wanted him to be smarter than hedge funds. After Dimon's comments, J.P. Morgan's stock price fell by more than 1%, and the decline later extended to more than 2%.

Dimon then expressed his opinion on the credit market. He said, “Investment-grade credit spreads can also be very wrong; this is only a matter of time.” In an interview last week, he warned that rising interest rates and possible stagflation could cause problems in the commercial real estate industry, leveraged companies, and private credit.

Regarding regulation, Dimon said, “They make us look like hedge funds,” and regulation “is hurting America.” He pointed out that excessive regulation has forced some customers to leave the banking system.

Dimon then expressed his opinion on artificial intelligence, believing that artificial intelligence would affect almost all of J.P. Morgan's work.

He anticipates that one day there will be another market panic. Therefore, he will keep the “ammunition” he bought back until that day.

Regarding monetary policy, the executive said, “I am cautiously pessimistic. If you study history, you'll find that we are facing the most complicated geopolitical situation since World War II. We don't really understand the full effects of QT. I think it's very mysterious. It (meaning QE) has this beneficial effect, but how can it be done without negative effects after it has disappeared. I personally think inflation is a bit bigger than people think, and interest rates may come as a surprise.”

Regarding inflation, he said, “Inflation is likely to reach 4% next year, but there is nothing anyone can do about it. I'm not saying this will necessarily happen, but it's possible. We don't bet on the future, and I don't believe the central bank's basic predictions at all, but this is risky.”

Damon's views are a good example of why he is bearish on the outlook.

Dimon also hinted that his retirement schedule is no longer five years, and that he may decide to retire earlier than expected. As soon as the news came out, J.P. Morgan's stock price dropped sharply. However, Dimon stressed that he still has enough energy to manage J.P. Morgan Chase's board of directors as to when is the best time to retire.

Known as “the strongest banker in America”, Dimon became CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase in 2000, successfully led J.P. Morgan Chase to become the largest bank in the US, and played a key rescue role many times during the financial crisis in the US. He is the only CEO of a major US bank still in office after experiencing the 2008 financial crisis. In March 2020, Damon underwent emergency cardiac surgery, and succession issues began to surface. In April of this year, J.P. Morgan Chase's board of directors officially named a successor to pave the way for a change of government.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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