Key points of investment
Incident: Zhongtong Express released its 2024Q1 financial report. In the first quarter, the company achieved revenue of 9.96 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% over the previous year; adjusted net profit of 2.22 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8% over the previous year. The performance was in line with expectations.
Optimized component volume structure, steady growth in performance. 2024Q1 achieved a business volume of 7.17 billion units, up 13.9% year on year; market share reached 19.3%, down 4.1 pct year on year. The main reasons for the decline in market share were: 1) the post office adjusted the volume of the industry this year and increased postal parcels, which led to a larger denominator when calculating market share; 2) the company set the tone for high-quality development and insisted on not losing money; 3) the 23Q1 base was high. Thanks to the optimization of the volume structure and continued cost efficiency, the company's profit level continued to expand. 24Q1 achieved net profit of 0.31 yuan after a single ticket adjustment, an increase of 0.01 yuan/ticket over the previous year. On the cost side, the cost of sorting a single ticket in the first quarter was 0.3 yuan/ticket, down 2 points from the previous year; the transportation cost of a single ticket was 0.47 yuan/ticket, down 4 points from the previous year. The company continuously optimizes internal operations, tracks data to people, and improves the output efficiency of base facilities. (Data from post office and company announcements)? The strategic focus is shifting to improving service and business quality and iterating competitive advantages. 24Q1 adjusted its strategic focus, put service quality first, and deployed spare parts as a new growth point. The current development trend is good. We are optimistic about the improvement in the quality of the company's operations, as well as the prospects for the spare parts business, mainly based on three aspects: 1) the time-efficiency side, due to the strong effects of business volume and operational optimization measures such as edge to corner and straight chain end, etc.; 2) Through intensive cultivation of returns and some high-end products, Zhongtong Express's reputation among consumers is expected to continue to improve; 3) Compared with peer bulk pricing, Zhongtong Express is cost-effective, adapts to the current consumption situation, and has the opportunity to make up for some of the missing price bands. (The above data comes from the company announcement and the WeChat account of Zhongtong Express)? High-quality companies lead the expansion of industry value and are optimistic about short-term growth and long-term development. Reviewing the past history of Zhongtong Express, through innovative and advanced management measures, it continues to lead the expansion of industry value and promote high-quality growth in quantity and quality. The improvement in service and business quality is expected to drive the access system to a new level and achieve product stratification. We are optimistic about the short-term growth and long-term development of the industry.
Maintain profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. We maintain our profit forecast. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 108.73/130.90/15.669 billion yuan, respectively, up 21%/20%/20% year-on-year, and the corresponding PE is 13x/11x/9x, respectively. The company continues to lead the upgrading of the industry, has high performance certainty, and competitive advantages continue to show. We maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Part volume growth rate is lower than expected; parts business development is hampered; price fluctuations are intensifying.