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天齐锂业(002466):投资收益拖累业绩 盈利拐点可期

Tianqi Lithium (002466): Investment income drags down performance and profit inflection point can be expected

長江證券 ·  May 21

Description of the event

In 2024Q1, the company achieved operating income of 2,585 billion yuan, -63.61% month-on-month; realized net profit attributable to mother of 3.897 billion yuan, or -386.52% month-on-month; realized net profit withheld from non-mother of 3.917 billion yuan, or -386.06% month-on-month.

Incident comments

Lithium prices declined, and the company's profitability declined month-on-month. Due to the decline in the average price of lithium salt and the relative lag in lithium concentrate price adjustments last year, the gross profit of the 2024Q1 lithium sector declined: affected by the decline in market prices, the average sales price of the company's lithium compounds fell 40.53% month-on-month; due to the decline in market prices and the adjustment of the Greenbush price adjustment mechanism from Q-1 to M-1 last year, the average sales price of the company's 2024Q1 lithium ore fell 70.24% month-on-month. The sales volume of 2024Q1 lithium ore, lithium compounds and derivatives was 143,500 tons, -26.82%, +20.49% month-on-month; total gross profit of 691 million yuan, 559 million yuan, -84.27% and -48.86% month-on-month; gross profit of 4816 yuan/ton, 33,400 yuan/ton, -79% and -58% month-on-month.

Due to SQM's tax accounting processing, 2024Q1 investment income declined sharply from month to month. The company's 2024Q1 investment revenue was 1,327 billion yuan, compared to the previous month - 1,312 billion yuan. The company estimates that the latest ruling in the SQM tax lawsuit reduced its 2024Q1 net profit by about 1.1 billion US dollars. Considering the company's 22.16% shareholding ratio, the current SQM tax accounting adjustment had an impact of about -1.7 billion yuan on Tianqi Lithium's investment income. This $1.1 billion tax accounting adjustment covers all of SQM's disputed mining tax expenses from the 2012-2023 tax year (2011-2022 business year).

Minority shareholders' profit and loss increased month-on-month in Q1. The company held 51% of TLEA's shares, held 51% of Wenfield's shares through TLEA, and eventually achieved control and merger. The actual proportion of the company's shares held through Wenfield was 26.01%. Previously, when IGO was introduced as a strategic investor, it was stipulated that it did not enjoy underwriting rights for lithium concentrate and only shared investment income according to the equity ratio. At the consolidated statement level, only when Qi Lithium converts its underwritten lithium concentrate into external sales of lithium salt on the same day will it confirm the minority shareholder profit and loss corresponding to the sales of lithium ore by IGO Wenfield to Tianqi Lithium according to the minority shareholders' shareholding ratio. However, considering that the average sales price of Vinfield lithium concentrate in 2023Q4 was 3016 US dollars/ton, which is still at a high level, the minority shareholders' profit and loss was realized in 2024Q1, resulting in higher profit and loss for minority shareholders in 2024Q1. As Greenbush's price adjustment mechanism was adjusted from last year's Q-1 to this year's M-1, the price adjustment period was shortened and lithium ore prices fell from a high level. It is expected that this part of the impact on the company's future profits will gradually decrease.

The company's 2024Q1 financial expenses were 255 million yuan, +145 million yuan month-on-month, mainly due to the month-on-month increase in exchange losses due to fluctuations in the US dollar index. The company accrued asset impairment losses of 57 million yuan in 2024Q1, a sharp decrease of 581 million yuan compared to 2023Q4. The company mainly undermines inventory depreciation of lithium hydroxide stocks at the Quinana plant, which is still climbing. Domestic lithium salt and lithium concentrate stocks have not been prepared for depreciation. Along with the gradual digestion of the company's lithium concentrate inventory, the impact of the company's high-price inventory will decrease quarterly. At the same time, the M-1 price adjustment mechanism will cause the company's 2024Q1 lithium concentrate purchase price to drop rapidly, and the company's profit inflection point can be expected.

Risk warning

1. Demand for new energy fell short of expectations, and lithium prices fell sharply;

2. The commissioning of the company's project fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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