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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント~買い一巡後は様子見ムード強く上げ幅縮小へ

3 points you should pay attention to in the back room ~ after one round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rises strongly and the range shrinks

Fisco Japan ·  May 21 11:23

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 21st.

・The Nikkei Average continued to rise, and after a round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rose strongly and narrowed

・The dollar and yen have risen firmly to the middle of 156 yen

・Advantest <6857> is the top contributor to price increases, and East Elec <8035> is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continued to rise, and after a round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rose strongly and the range decreased

The Nikkei Average continues to rise. The front-end transaction was closed at 39135.91 yen (estimated turnover 800 million shares), which was 66.23 yen higher (+0.17%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market on the 20th was mixed. The Dow average closed at 39806.77 dollars (-0.49%) depreciated by 196.82 dollars (-0.49%), the Nasdaq closed at 16794.88, 108.91 points higher (+ 0.65%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5308.13, 4.86 points higher (+ 0.09%). Expectations for interest rate cuts have receded, and things have been mixed since they got close. Since several senior US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials showed a cautious attitude, such as “there is still no confidence that inflation will reach the 2% target sustainably, and interest rates will be maintained for the time being,” the rise in long-term interest rates was suppressed. The Dow was pushed by profit-taking sales from around 40,000 dollars, which is a milestone, and turned into a decline, and the decline widened towards the end of the game. Meanwhile, the rise in semiconductor NVIDIA, which is scheduled to announce quarterly financial results this week, led the NASDAQ to rise and hit a record high.

Since the NASDAQ rose in various ways for US stocks, the Tokyo market began trading with a slight buying advantage. Although there was a scene where the Nikkei Average increased to 39346.15 yen, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market as a whole before financial results were announced by US semiconductor giant NVIDIA, and aggressive trading was refrained. The trading price on the prime market remained at around 2 trillion yen, and both rising and falling stocks developed with little sense of direction.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, MS&AD <8725> skyrocketed due to good financial results and large-scale shareholder return measures, etc. being viewed as materials, and updated the high price since listing. Also, Fujikura (5803), which was reported to consistently produce small-diameter high-density optical cables in the US, also updated its high price since listing. In addition, Tokio Marine <8766>, Mitsukoshi Isetan D <3099>, Disco <6146>, Murata Seisakusho (6981), and Ebara Seisakusho (6361) were bought.

Meanwhile, Sompo Holdings (8630), which was displeased with the financial results forecast for the current fiscal year, fell and hit a year-to-date low, and T&D Holdings (8795) is not even there. Additionally, Sumitomo Pharma <4506>, Daikin Industries <6367>, Sumitomo Chemical <4005>, and Socionext <6526> were sold.

By industry, insurance, petroleum and coal products, electric/gas, shipping, non-ferrous metals, etc. rose, while mining, banking, real estate, precision equipment, securities and commodity futures trading businesses declined.

In the morning bond market, the yield on new 10-year government bonds was 0.980%, 0.005% higher than the previous day, the highest in 11 years since 2013/5. As long-term interest rates rose in the US market last night, sales spread to domestic long-term bonds. Interest rate expectations have intensified in the bond market since the Bank of Japan observes the normalization of monetary policy. Since 1.000%, which is a psychological milestone, is approaching, it is assumed that the mood to determine the impact on the exchange market and stock market will also intensify. As for the backstage, NVIDIA's financial results are being announced on the 22nd (before dawn on the 23rd Japan time), so it seems that both the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will be at odds.

■The dollar and yen have firmly risen to the middle of 156 yen

There was a steady price movement of the dollar and yen in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 21st, and the price rose from 156 yen 19 yen to 156 yen 50 yen. The yield on 10-year US bonds remained solid, and dollar purchases took the lead. Also, yen sales boosted the dollar due to the steady position of the Nikkei Stock Average. However, the upper price is heavy near the milestone.

The trading range up to this point is the dollar and yen from 156 yen 19 yen to 156 yen 50 sen, the euro yen from 169 yen 59 yen to 169 yen 93 sen, and the euro dollar from 1.0851 dollars to 1.0861 dollars.

■Backstage check stocks

・4 stocks, such as Sumiseki Holdings <1514> and Eyes <5242>, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・Advantest <6857> is the top contributor to price increases, and East Elec <8035> is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Nothing in particular

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Reserve Bank of Australia May Board Meeting Summary

“Inflation risk may be increasing due to recent data”

“The top priority is to return inflation to the target”

“It is difficult to say definitively about future policy interest rate changes”

・Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi

“Interest rates on government bonds are determined by the market due to various factors”

<Domestic>

・Nothing in particular

<Overseas>

・Nothing in particular

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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