3 points you should pay attention to in the back room ~ after one round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rises strongly and the range shrinks

Fisco Japan · May 21 11:23

21日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は続伸、買い一巡後は様子見ムード強く上げ幅縮小へ

・ドル・円はしっかり、156円半ばに浮上

・値上り寄与トップはアドバンテスト＜6857＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■日経平均は続伸、買い一巡後は様子見ムード強く上げ幅縮小へ

日経平均は続伸。前日比66.23円高（+0.17％）の39135.91円（出来高概算8億株）で前場の取引を終えている。

20日の米国株式市場はまちまち。ダウ平均は196.82ドル安（－0.49％）の39806.77ドル、ナスダックは108.91ポイント高（＋0.65％）の16794.88、S&P500は4.86ポイント高（＋0.09％）の5308.13で取引を終了した。利下げ期待後退で寄り付き後はまちまち。数人の米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）高官が、「インフレが持続的に2％目標に達する確信がまだ持てず当面金利を維持する」といった慎重姿勢を示したため、長期金利の上昇で上値が抑制された。ダウは節目となる4万ドル近辺からの利益確定売りに押され、下落に転じ、終盤にかけ下げ幅を拡大。一方、今週四半期決算発表が予定されている半導体エヌビディアの上昇がけん引しナスダックは上昇し過去最高値を更新した。

米国株はまちまちもナスダックが上昇したことから、東京市場はやや買い優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は39346.15円まで上げ幅を広げる場面が見られたものの、米半導体大手エヌビディアの決算発表前で市場全体の様子見ムードは強く、積極的な売買は手控えられた。プライム市場の売買代金は2兆円ほどに留まり、上昇下落銘柄も半々と方向感に乏しい展開となった。

日経平均採用銘柄では、MS&AD＜8725＞が好決算や大規模な株主還元策などが材料視されて急騰し上場来高値を更新した。また、細径高密度光ケーブルを米国で一貫生産すると報じられたフジクラ＜5803＞も上場来高値を更新。このほか、東京海上＜8766＞、三越伊勢丹D＜3099＞、ディスコ＜6146＞、村田製作所＜6981＞、荏原製作所＜6361＞が買われた。

一方、今期減益見通しの決算内容が嫌気されたSOMPOホールディングス＜8630＞が下落し年初来安値を更新したほか、T&Dホールディングス＜8795＞もさえない。このほか、住友ファーマ＜4506＞、ダイキン工業＜6367＞、住友化学＜4005＞、ソシオネクスト＜6526＞が売られた。

業種別では、保険業、石油・石炭製品、電気・ガス業、海運業、非鉄金属などが上昇した一方、鉱業、銀行業、不動産業、精密機器、証券・商品先物取引業などが下落した。

午前の債券市場では、新発10年物国債の利回りが前日比0.005％高い0.980％と2013年5月以来、11年ぶりの高さとなった。昨晩の米国市場で長期金利が上昇したことで、国内の長期債にも売りが波及。日本銀行による金融政策の正常化観測から債券市場では金利先高観が強まっている。心理的な節目である1.000％が迫っていることから、為替市場、株式市場への影響を見極めたいとするムードも強まると想定。後場は、エヌビディアの決算発表を22日（日本時間23日未明）に控えていることもあり、日経平均、TOPIXともにもみ合い推移となりそうだ。

■ドル・円はしっかり、156円半ばに浮上

21日午前の東京市場でドル・円はしっかりの値動きとなり、156円19銭から156円50銭まで値を上げた。米10年債利回りは底堅く推移し、ドル買い先行。また、日経平均株価の堅調地合いで円売りがドルを押し上げた。ただ、節目付近では上値が重い。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は156円19銭から156円50銭、ユーロ・円は169円59銭から169円93銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0851ドルから1.0861ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・住石ホールディングス＜1514＞、アイズ＜5242＞など、4銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップはアドバンテスト＜6857＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・特になし

【要人発言】

・豪準備銀行5月理事会議事要旨

「最近のデータでインフレリスクが高まっている可能性」

「最優先課題はインフレを目標に戻すこと」

「今後の政策金利の変更について確定的にいうことは難しい」

・林官房長官

「国債金利は様々な要因で市場が決める」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・特になし

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 21st.

・The Nikkei Average continued to rise, and after a round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rose strongly and narrowed

・The dollar and yen have risen firmly to the middle of 156 yen

・Advantest ＜6857＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and East Elec ＜8035＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continued to rise, and after a round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rose strongly and the range decreased

The Nikkei Average continues to rise. The front-end transaction was closed at 39135.91 yen (estimated turnover 800 million shares), which was 66.23 yen higher (+0.17%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market on the 20th was mixed. The Dow average closed at 39806.77 dollars (-0.49%) depreciated by 196.82 dollars (-0.49%), the Nasdaq closed at 16794.88, 108.91 points higher (+ 0.65%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5308.13, 4.86 points higher (+ 0.09%). Expectations for interest rate cuts have receded, and things have been mixed since they got close. Since several senior US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials showed a cautious attitude, such as “there is still no confidence that inflation will reach the 2% target sustainably, and interest rates will be maintained for the time being,” the rise in long-term interest rates was suppressed. The Dow was pushed by profit-taking sales from around 40,000 dollars, which is a milestone, and turned into a decline, and the decline widened towards the end of the game. Meanwhile, the rise in semiconductor NVIDIA, which is scheduled to announce quarterly financial results this week, led the NASDAQ to rise and hit a record high.

Since the NASDAQ rose in various ways for US stocks, the Tokyo market began trading with a slight buying advantage. Although there was a scene where the Nikkei Average increased to 39346.15 yen, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market as a whole before financial results were announced by US semiconductor giant NVIDIA, and aggressive trading was refrained. The trading price on the prime market remained at around 2 trillion yen, and both rising and falling stocks developed with little sense of direction.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, MS&AD ＜8725＞ skyrocketed due to good financial results and large-scale shareholder return measures, etc. being viewed as materials, and updated the high price since listing. Also, Fujikura (5803), which was reported to consistently produce small-diameter high-density optical cables in the US, also updated its high price since listing. In addition, Tokio Marine ＜8766＞, Mitsukoshi Isetan D ＜3099＞, Disco ＜6146＞, Murata Seisakusho (6981), and Ebara Seisakusho (6361) were bought.

Meanwhile, Sompo Holdings (8630), which was displeased with the financial results forecast for the current fiscal year, fell and hit a year-to-date low, and T&D Holdings (8795) is not even there. Additionally, Sumitomo Pharma ＜4506＞, Daikin Industries ＜6367＞, Sumitomo Chemical ＜4005＞, and Socionext ＜6526＞ were sold.

By industry, insurance, petroleum and coal products, electric/gas, shipping, non-ferrous metals, etc. rose, while mining, banking, real estate, precision equipment, securities and commodity futures trading businesses declined.

In the morning bond market, the yield on new 10-year government bonds was 0.980%, 0.005% higher than the previous day, the highest in 11 years since 2013/5. As long-term interest rates rose in the US market last night, sales spread to domestic long-term bonds. Interest rate expectations have intensified in the bond market since the Bank of Japan observes the normalization of monetary policy. Since 1.000%, which is a psychological milestone, is approaching, it is assumed that the mood to determine the impact on the exchange market and stock market will also intensify. As for the backstage, NVIDIA's financial results are being announced on the 22nd (before dawn on the 23rd Japan time), so it seems that both the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will be at odds.

■The dollar and yen have firmly risen to the middle of 156 yen

There was a steady price movement of the dollar and yen in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 21st, and the price rose from 156 yen 19 yen to 156 yen 50 yen. The yield on 10-year US bonds remained solid, and dollar purchases took the lead. Also, yen sales boosted the dollar due to the steady position of the Nikkei Stock Average. However, the upper price is heavy near the milestone.

The trading range up to this point is the dollar and yen from 156 yen 19 yen to 156 yen 50 sen, the euro yen from 169 yen 59 yen to 169 yen 93 sen, and the euro dollar from 1.0851 dollars to 1.0861 dollars.

■Backstage check stocks

・4 stocks, such as Sumiseki Holdings ＜1514＞ and Eyes ＜5242＞, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・Advantest ＜6857＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and East Elec ＜8035＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Nothing in particular

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Reserve Bank of Australia May Board Meeting Summary

“Inflation risk may be increasing due to recent data”

“The top priority is to return inflation to the target”

“It is difficult to say definitively about future policy interest rate changes”

・Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi

“Interest rates on government bonds are determined by the market due to various factors”

＜Domestic＞

・Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～買い一巡後は様子見ムード強く上げ幅縮小へ

3 points you should pay attention to in the back room ~ after one round of buying, the wait-and-see mood rises strongly and the range shrinks

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