Today is shaping up negative for UMS Holdings Limited (SGX:558) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following this downgrade, UMS Holdings' four analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be S$269m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to decrease 7.9% to S$0.068 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of S$353m and earnings per share (EPS) of S$0.11 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a sizeable cut to revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 42% to S$0.97.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 1.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that UMS Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that UMS Holdings' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of UMS Holdings.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple UMS Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.