Financial Services Association, May 21 (Editor: Huang Junzhi) Although the Federal Reserve has been slow to cut interest rates this year, US stocks are still booming. All bears were taken aback by this rise. Just last weekend, Michael Wilson (Michael Wilson), one of Wall Street's most famous bears and chief US stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, also surrendered.

Today, Wall Street seems to have only one “bear” that persists — Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic), chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase.

According to reports, Kolanovic reiterated his views in a report to clients late Monday, urging them not to buy stocks, while admitting that at a time when global stock markets have risen to record highs in the past year, this negative outlook has damaged the return on J.P. Morgan's portfolio allocation.

However, he cited a range of reasons for maintaining a pessimistic stance, including overvaluation, the possibility that interest rates will remain limited for a longer period of time, rising inflation data, consumer pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty.

“The negative stance on the stock market has hurt the performance of our multi-asset portfolio over the past year,” he added. “We currently don't see the stock market as an attractive investment, and we see no reason to change our position.”

The last “bear”

Wilson surrendered last weekend. His latest statement stated that he is optimistic about the future of the US stock market. Previously, he thought the S&P 500 index would fall 15% by December of this year, but now he expects the index to rise 2% by June 2025 and raise the 12-month target of the S&P 500 index from 4,500 points to 5,400 points, or 20%.

Meanwhile, Bank of America and Wells Fargo also expect the S&P 500 to rise further to 5,400 points and 5,535 points, respectively, by the end of the year. As the US stock market continues to rise, driven by strong economic and corporate profits, and people continue to be excited about artificial intelligence, they all raised their initial expectations for this year.

As a result, it seems that Kolanovic has become the last famous short man on Wall Street. His year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 4,200 points, which means the index will drop more than 20% from Monday's closing point.

Above J.P. Morgan Chase are Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Their year-end expectations for the S&P 500 index are 5,100 points and 5,200 points, respectively, lower than current levels, which suggests a moderate decline. But neither bank's senior stock strategists Scott Chronert nor David Kostin have taken such a firm bearish stance as the Xiaoma team.

Kolanovic's outlook on the US stock market has fallen short for the third year in a row. The S&P 500 rose 11% in 2024, and he had predicted that it would fall. He was also pessimistic when the stock market rose 24% last year, and in 2022, when the stock market fell 19%, he was optimistic for most of the time.

The strategist reiterated his defensive portfolio tendencies, advising investors to reduce their holdings of stocks and credit, and increase their holdings of commodities and cash.