I. Growth of soybeans, corn, wheat, and cotton in the United States

The weekly crop growth report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the early hours of Tuesday morning shows that for the week ending May 19,

① The US soybean cultivation rate is 52%, and the market forecast is 49%. The previous week was 35%, the same period last year was 61%, and the five-year average is 49%. The soybean germination rate was 26%, 16% in the previous week, 31% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 21%.

② The corn cultivation rate in the US is 70%, and the market forecast is 68%. The previous week was 49%, the same period last year was 76%, the five-year average was 71%; the corn seedling rate was 40%, 23% the previous week, 46% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 39%.

③ The U.S. cotton planting rate was 44%, 33% the previous week, 42% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 44%.

④ The excellent rate of winter wheat in the US is 49%, the market forecast is 51%, the previous week was 50%, and the same period last year was 31%. The pumping rate was 69%, 57% in the previous week, 58% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 57%.

⑤ The US spring wheat planting rate is 79%, market expectations are 76%. The previous week was 61%, the same period last year was 57%, and the five-year average is 65%. The spring wheat yield was 43%, 25% last week, 27% in the same period last year, and 33% over the same period last year.

2. What is the US Crop Growth Report?

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) begins publishing weekly crop growth reports in April of every year. They are published every Tuesday at 4 a.m. Beijing time (holiday postponed). The report helps farmers, the government, and other market participants understand the latest growth conditions of US crops and make certain estimates of their yield. The report reflects the seeding rate, excellent rate, germination rate, harvest rate, etc. of important crops such as soybeans, corn, wheat, and cotton in the United States. Due to the importance of US crops around the world, the report has also become the focus of market hype. According to the growing season of crops, October is the harvest period for corn and cotton in the US, and the harvesting of American soybeans will also begin.

(Growth cycle of corn in various countries)

(U.S. cotton growth cycle)

(Soybean growth cycle in various countries)

3. Weather topics that can be hyped up in the market (taking soybeans as an example)

The length of growth of soybeans is 90-120 days, about 4 months. The growth cycle includes 4 stages: planting period, flowering period, grouting period, and harvesting period.

The main producer of soybeans in the northern hemisphere: the United States, sown every year from mid-April to June and harvested in September-October;

Major soybean producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere: Brazil and Argentina. They are mainly sown in October-December and harvested in March-May of the following year.

Influencing factor 1: precipitation

Drought is the most common disastrous weather for soybeans, and it also has the greatest impact on the market. The duration and intensity of the drought determines the amount of reduction in soybean production. The water consumption of soybeans varies greatly from one stage of growth to another.

① From sowing to seedling period: Water consumption accounts for about 5% of total water consumption. If moisture is insufficient or the seeds dry out midway, seeds can easily lose their ability to grow in the soil, and even if they barely germinate, it is difficult to reach full growth.

② Seedling to branching period: Water consumption accounts for about 13% of total water consumption.

③ Branching to flowering: Water consumption accounts for about 17% of total water consumption. As flower buds differentiate one after another and enter a stage where nutritional growth and reproductive growth go hand in hand, soybean moisture requirements begin to increase during this period, and timely irrigation has an effect on soybean growth and development.

④ Flowering to the drumming stage: Soybeans require the most water, accounting for about 45% of total water consumption. This is a critical period for soybeans to require water. The intensity of transpiration reaches its peak during this period, and the dry matter also rises in a straight line. Therefore, timely and adequate supply of moisture during this period is an important measure to ensure high soybean production. When soybeans are fully ripe, water consumption accounts for about 20% of the total water consumption. During this period, during some droughts and water shortages, slack grains and pods increased, and grain weight decreased.

Soybeans require less water during the budding period, while the July-August podding period to the drumming period is the period when soybeans need the most moisture to grow. Summer in the US is mild and rainy. This seasonal characteristic also causes the soybean market weather speculation to focus on the planting period and the fruiting period, while precipitation is generally low during the harvest period, so there is generally less speculation about the weather during the harvest period. By analyzing the excellent soybean rate and precipitation data, it can be found that when the monthly precipitation reaches 85-120 mm in June-August, the overall excellent rate will be 60% or more; when the monthly precipitation is less than 80 mm, the excellent rate is generally low, which can easily cause speculation about droughts.

Influencing factor 2: temperature

Soybeans are warm-loving crops, and they have different temperature requirements at various stages of growth and development. Throughout the growing season, the optimum temperature for soybeans is an average daily temperature of 20℃ to 25℃.

① Seedlings: The optimal growth temperature is 20℃ to 21℃.

② Flower bud differentiation period: The optimal growth temperature is 21℃ to 23℃.

③ Flowering period: The optimal growth temperature is 23℃ to 26℃.

④ Granulation period: The optimal growth temperature is 21℃ to 23℃.

⑤ Maturation period: The optimal growth temperature is 19℃ to 20℃.

The temperature required for the entire growth period is generally between 2400℃ and 3800℃.