On the evening of the 20th, Beijing time, US stocks opened with mixed ups and downs on Monday. The Dow surpassed the 40,000 mark for the first time last week. This week, the market focused on Nvidia's earnings report and Microsoft's Build developer event conference. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

As of press release, the NASDAQ was up 0.47%, the S&P 500 was up 0.16%, and the Dow was down 0.21%.

The Dow broke through the 40,000 point level for the first time last Thursday and closed above 40,000 points for the first time on Friday. Artificial intelligence leader Nvidia has driven most of Wall Street's gains this year.

Munster, a senior technology analyst and managing partner at Shenshui Asset Management, said that the bullish rise in US stocks is expected to continue to rise in the next three to five years, and then end with an astonishing bubble bursting.

Munster has fresh memories of his experience as a technology analyst during the Internet boom and bust in the 1990s, so he did not easily make such predictions, but he believes that, driven by the increasing popularity of artificial intelligence technology, US stocks are likely to rise sharply, and eventually fall.

Munster said that broader technology trading will continue to drive US stocks higher, but investors should not only hope that technology stocks with large market capitalization will drive most of the gains in the stock market.

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Consultants, said that this market rebound should continue for at least the short term. “As we said earlier this month, the market is expected to shift from fear of May to buying over time. Looking ahead to next week, we expect this to continue.”

One of Wall Street's most famous bears, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson (Michael Wilson), has just adjusted his outlook for the US stock market. He currently expects the S&P 500 to rise 2% by June 2025, when he previously thought the index would fall 15% by December.

As the market continued to rise, the strategist's pessimistic expectations for 2023 failed to be realized, and he finally made concessions and raised the target point of the S&P 500 index from 4,500 points to 5,400 points. This made his prediction jump from one of Wall Street's lowest predictions to one of the index's new record predictions.

“In the US, we expect strong growth in corporate profits while the price-earnings ratio will be moderately compressed,” Wilson said during the company's discussions on various assets in the second half of the year.

Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks will be the focus of the market this week. Tom Lee highlighted several potential catalysts, including the Microsoft Build developer conference from Tuesday to Thursday and Nvidia's earnings report due on Wednesday.

Following this month's high-profile event hosted by OpenAI and Google, the Microsoft Build developer conference opened on Tuesday, and the company may take the opportunity to showcase its latest artificial intelligence projects.

Tom Lee said, “Overall, we expect these AI industry activities and financial reports to increase the visibility and capabilities of the industry and stimulate an increase in related spending. As a result, this will be an overall benefit for tech stocks and the wider market.”

In terms of economic data, investors will also pay attention to several recent economic reports this week, including second-hand housing sales contract data, first-time unemployment benefits data, durable goods orders, manufacturing and service activity data, and the final value of consumer confidence in May.

Data released last week showed a slight slowdown in US inflation in April, causing the market to be cautious about the Fed's interest rate cut in September and driving cross-asset gains. The timing of the Federal Reserve's possible shift to cutting interest rates has affected financial market transactions in recent days.

This Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the April 30 to May 1 monetary policy meeting.

Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards, known for his long-term bearishness, said that the Federal Reserve's policy of maintaining high interest rates to curb rising inflation in the super-core services sector has led to an unprecedented decline in core commodity inflation.

Edwards has been described in some ways as “forever bearish,” but much of what he said is true, making him one of the best macro strategists of the past 20 years. He said that the Federal Reserve's policy stance has led to a huge divide between goods and services inflation.

Edwards said that the Federal Reserve's current mistake is that it is targeting a portion of overall inflation (that is, rising hyper-core services inflation) and inadvertently pushing core commodity prices into the worst deflation in 20 years.

Individual stocks in focus

Most of the star technology stocks rose; Nvidia and AMD rose more than 2%; Amazon, Microsoft, and Google rose nearly 1%; and Apple rose slightly.

The trend of popular Chinese securities diverged. The ideal decline was more than 12%; Baidu and NIO fell about 1%, and Shell fell slightly; Pinduoduo and TSMC rose more than 1%, and Ali, JD, and Xiaopeng rose slightly.

In terms of individual stocks,$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$It surged more than 88%, and the Biden administration previously announced that it would increase tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It rose more than 2%. Results will be announced this week, and many major banks are expecting strong quarterly results.

$Li Auto (LI.US)$The decline was more than 12%, and the Q1 revenue and delivery guidelines fell short of expectations.

editor/tolk