Wuzhou Special Paper (605007): Successful completion of equity incentive targets and continuous improvement in profitability

事项：

公司公告2023 年业绩和2024 年一季度业绩，23 年公司实现营收65.2 亿元，同比+9.3%；归母净利润2.7 亿元，同比+33.0%；扣非归母净利润2.5 亿元，同比+54.4%。2023 年公司顺利完成股权激励目标。24Q1 实现营收17.3 亿元，同比+37.2%；归母净利润1.3 亿元，同比扭亏；扣非归母净利润1.3 亿元，同比扭亏。

评论：

新增产能释放，销量稳步提升。1）分产品看，公司食品包装、日用消费、出版印刷、工业包装、工业配套系列用纸分别实现营收33.2（-1.6%）、22.3（+21.5%）、8.3、0.1（-99.3%）、0.9 亿元，对应销量61.4（+12.1%）、25.5（

+19.5%）、

17.4、0.2（-99.1%）、1.2 万吨。其中工业包装纸销量下滑主要系期内工业包装纸生产线技改后转产出版印刷纸所致，而新收购的龙游工厂负责工业配套系列用纸生产，公司产品矩阵进一步丰富。2）分区域看，公司境内/境外实现营收57.1/7.6 亿元，同比+9.6%/+4.0%。展望24 年，公司格拉辛、热转印纸涨价预计部分落地，有望进一步增厚业绩。

盈利能力提升，费用率管控良好。1）23 年，公司实现毛利率9.6%，同比+0.8pcts，或主要系公司强化成本管控，带动盈利能力稳步提升。费用端，公司实现销售/管理/财务费用率0.3%/1.5%/1.4%，同比+0.1/+0.1/-0.6pcts，费用率保持平稳。

综合来看，公司实现归母净利率4.2%，同比+0.7pcts。2）24Q1，公司实现毛利率13.0%，同比+9.5pcts/环比-2.2pcts，江西基地30 万吨化机浆产线已经投产，或配合浆纸一体化战略进一步优化公司原料供给，毛利率有望持续改善。

费用端，公司实现销售/管理/财务费用率0.2%/1.4%/1.7%，同比+0.04/-0.2/+0.3pcts，综合带动公司扭亏为盈，实现归母净利率7.8%、? 产品矩阵多元化、产能扩张打开中长期成长空间。2023 年公司新增2.2 万吨转移印花纸、30 万吨化机浆（24Q1 正式投产）、1.8 万吨描图纸、3.5 万吨工业衬纸产能，产品矩阵更加完善。新产能方面，湖北基地在建4 条造纸产线，江西基地1 条造纸产线预计于2024 年陆续投产，到2024 年末，公司有望形成200 万吨以上的原纸产能，为中长期扩张提供产能支持。

投资建议：公司作为特种纸龙头，新产能稳步扩张，我们看好公司未来业绩成长性。因此，预计2024-2026 年公司归母净利润5.40/7.00/8.07 亿元，对应PE为12/9/8X。参考绝对估值法，给予目标价19.1 元/股，维持“强推”评级。

风险提示：原料成本大幅波动，市场竞争加剧等。

Matters:

The company announced the results for 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. In '23, the company achieved revenue of 6.52 billion yuan, +9.3% year over year; net profit to mother of 270 million yuan, +33.0% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 250 million yuan, +54.4% year over year. The company successfully completed the equity incentive target in 2023. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 1.73 billion yuan, +37.2% year over year; net profit to mother of 130 million yuan, reversing loss year on year; net profit without return to mother of 130 million yuan, reversing loss year on year.

Commentary:

New production capacity was released, and sales increased steadily. 1) By product, the company achieved revenue of 33.2 (-1.6%), 22.3 (+21.5%), 8.3, 0.1 (-99.3%), and 90 million yuan in revenue for food packaging, daily consumption, publishing and printing, industrial packaging, and industrial support series, respectively, corresponding sales volumes of 61.4 (+12.1%) and 25.5 (

+19.5%),

17.4, 0.2 (-99.1%), 12,000 tons. Among them, the decline in industrial wrapping paper sales was mainly due to the conversion of the industrial wrapping paper production line to printing paper after technical reform during the period, while the newly acquired Longyou factory was responsible for the production of a series of industrial supporting paper, further enriching the company's product matrix. 2) Looking at the subregion, the company achieved domestic/overseas revenue of $57.1/760 million yuan, +9.6%/+4.0% year-on-year. Looking ahead to 24, the company's price increases for glassine and heat transfer paper are expected to partially come to fruition, which is expected to further increase performance.

Profitability has improved, and cost rate control is good. 1) In '23, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 9.6%, +0.8pcts compared to the previous year, or the main company strengthened cost control, which led to a steady increase in profitability. On the cost side, the company achieved a sales/management/finance expense ratio of 0.3%/1.5%/1.4%, compared with +0.1/+0.1/-0.6pcts compared to the previous year, and the expense ratio remained stable.

Taken together, the company achieved a net profit margin of 4.2%, +0.7pcts year-on-year. 2) In 24Q1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 13.0%, +9.5 pcts/month-on-month -2.2 pcts. The 300,000 ton pulp production line at the Jiangxi base has already been put into operation, or the company's raw material supply is further optimized in line with the integrated pulp and paper strategy, and gross margin is expected to continue to improve.

On the expense side, the company achieved a sales/management/finance expense ratio of 0.2%/1.4%/1.7%, compared with +0.04/-0.2/+0.3 pcts, which comprehensively drove the company to turn a loss into a profit and achieved a net interest rate of 7.8%,? Diversification of product matrices and expansion of production capacity open up space for medium- to long-term growth. In 2023, the company added 22,000 tons of transfer printing paper, 300,000 tons of chemical machine pulp (officially put into operation in 24Q1), 18,000 tons of drawing paper, and 35,000 tons of industrial lining paper, and the product matrix was more complete. In terms of new production capacity, 4 paper production lines are under construction at the Hubei base, and 1 paper production line at the Jiangxi base is expected to be put into operation one after another in 2024. By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have a raw paper production capacity of more than 2 million tons, providing capacity support for medium- to long-term expansion.

Investment advice: As a leading specialty paper company, new production capacity is steadily expanding. We are optimistic about the company's future performance growth. Therefore, the company's net profit from 2024-2026 is estimated to be $540/7.00/807 million yuan, and the corresponding PE is 12/9/8X. Referring to the absolute valuation method, the target price was 19.1 yuan/share, and the “strong recommendation” rating was maintained.

Risk warning: Raw material costs fluctuate greatly, market competition intensified, etc.

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五洲特纸(605007)：顺利完成股权激励目标 盈利能力持续改善

Wuzhou Special Paper (605007): Successful completion of equity incentive targets and continuous improvement in profitability

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Statement

五洲特纸(605007)：顺利完成股权激励目标盈利能力持续改善