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容百科技(688005):出货量稳步提升 全球化布局推进

Rongbai Technology (688005): Steady increase in shipment volume and promotion of global layout

中信建投證券 ·  May 20

Core views

The company's 2023 revenue was 22.657 billion yuan, -25% YoY, net profit to mother: 581 million yuan, -57% YoY; after deduction, 515 million yuan, YoY -61%; 2024Q1's revenue was 3.692 billion yuan, -56% YoY, -10% month-on-month, net profit to mother -37 million yuan, -112% YoY, -6% YoY, +13% YoY. In 2023, the company shipped 99,000 tons of ternary cathode materials, +11% year-on-year, with a global market share of over 10%, maintaining the top position in the industry for three consecutive years. 2024Q1 sold more than 26,000 tons of ternary cathode materials, with a global market share of over 11%, +1pct month-on-month, and a domestic market share of over 18%, +2pct month-on-month.

occurrences

The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The company's revenue in 2023 was 22.657 billion yuan, -25% YoY, net profit of 581 million yuan, -57% YoY after deduction; of these, 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 4.083 billion yuan, -62% YoY, -28% month-on-month, net profit to mother -0.35 billion yuan, -115% month-on-month, -108% YoY, and -44 million yuan after deduction, -111% YoY and -119% month-on-month.

2024Q1's revenue was 3.692 billion yuan, -56% year-on-year, -10% month-on-month, net profit of -37 million yuan, -112% year-on-month, -6% month-on-month, and -38 million yuan after deduction, -113% year-on-month, +13% month-on-month.

reviews

In terms of sales volume, the company shipped 99,000 tons of ternary cathode materials in 2023, +11% over the same period, with a global market share of over 10%, maintaining the top position in the industry for three consecutive years. In 2024Q1, the company sold more than 26,000 tons of ternary cathode materials, with a global market share of over 11%, +1pct month-on-month, and a domestic market share of more than 18%, +2pct month-on-month. Among them, the domestic market share of high-nickel ternary cathode materials was 40%.

In terms of production capacity, at the end of 2023, the company built a cathode with a production capacity of more than 200,000 tons, the world's largest ternary cathode production capacity. Among them, in terms of overseas production capacity, the first phase of the company's Korean factory was put into operation, and other global layouts are being promoted. At present, the company's plant in Korea has put into operation 20,000 tons of the first phase of the three yuan cathode, and production continues to increase steadily. The second phase has started with 40,000 tons of three yuan and 20,000 tons of lithium manganese iron phosphate. At the same time, factory site selection work has also begun in North America.

In terms of profitability, the company's profit per ton (return to parent caliber) was 60,000 yuan/ton in 2023, of which 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 were -0.14 million yuan/ton. The decline in single-ton profit was mainly due to: 1) the sharp drop in lithium prices in 2023, and the company calculated large inventory impairment losses; 2) the company's early construction and slope climbing in the Korean factory affected profits; 3) The company's R&D investment in lithium manganese phosphate and sodium electrocathode products affected profits; 4) The company adopted an active market competition strategy to ensure an increase in market share, which had a certain impact on current gross profit margin. Excluding the above effects, the company is expected to make an operating profit of 40,000 yuan/ton per ton per ton.

On the customer side, in 2023, the company signed cooperation framework agreements with LGES, SKON and other Japanese and Korean customers, and achieved large-scale shipments to mainstream European and American car companies. The Q4 monthly shipment scale reached 1,000 tons; 2024Q1 shipped nearly 5,000 tons to international customers, accounting for about 20%.

In terms of new products, in terms of high nickel, the company's 9 series and above products have been used on a large scale in large cylindrical batteries in 2023; in terms of lithium manganese-iron phosphate cathodes, the company shipped +85% year-on-year in 2023. At the same time, it also developed ternary mixed M6P products, high-capacity products with a manganese iron ratio of 7:3, and completed pilot tests on automotive power batteries. It is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the automotive market in 2024; in terms of sodium electric cathodes, the company's layered materials have been mass-produced, and the development of polyanions has obtained routes. orders; In terms of solid-state batteries, the battery products supporting the cathode materials of the company's semi-solid-state batteries have been used in 1000-kilometer ultra-long battery life models for end customers. The 2024Q1 company has shipped nearly 100 tons of 9 series solid state products, and has established cooperative relationships with more than 40 domestic and foreign battery and vehicle companies, including Ningde Times and Weilan New Energy.

Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2024-2025 is expected to be 440 million yuan or 81 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 32.6 or 17.9 times.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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