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亿纬锂能(300014):出货量稳步提升 国内市占率增长

Everweft Lithium Energy (300014): Shipments are steadily increasing, and domestic market share is growing

中信建投證券 ·  May 20

Core views

In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 48.78 billion yuan, +34% year-on-year, net profit of 4.05 billion yuan, +15% year-on-year, and 2.76 billion yuan after deduction, +2% year-on-year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 9.32 billion yuan, -17% YoY, -30% month-on-month, net profit to mother of 1.07 billion yuan, -6% YoY, +70% month-on-month, +70% month-on-month after deduction, +15% YoY, and +17% month-on-month.

In 2023, the company's power battery shipments reached 28.08 GWh, +64% year over year, with 4.45% domestic battery market share, +2pct year on year, ranking fourth in the country; in 2023, the company's energy storage battery shipments reached 26.29 GWh, +121% year over year, ranking third in the world. In terms of consumer batteries, downstream customers of small cylindrical batteries are nearing completion, and normal procurement has resumed.

occurrences

The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The company's revenue in 2023 was 48.78 billion yuan, +34% year on year, net profit to mother of 4.05 billion yuan, +15% year on year, 2.76 billion yuan after deduction, +2% year on year. Among them, 2023Q4 revenue was 13.25 billion yuan, +10% year-on-month, +6% month-on-month, net profit of 630 million yuan, -26% year-on-year, -51% month-on-month, after deducting 60 billion yuan, +16% year-on-month, and -33% month-on-month.

2024Q1 revenue was 9.32 billion yuan, -17% YoY, -30% month-on-month, net profit to mother of 1.07 billion yuan, -6% YoY, +70% month-on-month, before deducting 7.0 billion yuan, +15% YoY, +17% month-on-month.

reviews

In terms of power storage batteries, the company's shipments have been steadily increasing, and the domestic market share has increased.

In 2023, the company's power battery shipments reached 28.08 GWh, +64% year over year, with 4.45% domestic battery market share, +2pct year on year, ranking fourth in the country; in 2023, the company's energy storage battery shipments reached 26.29 GWh, +121% year over year, ranking third in the world. 2024Q1's power battery shipments were 6.45 GWh, +6% year on year. Among them, the company ranked second in domestic new energy commercial vehicle loading volume, with a market share of 16.05%, a significant increase; 2024Q1 energy storage battery shipments were 7.02 GWh, +113% year on year. In March 2024, the company ranked second in domestic energy storage cell shipments, accounting for 18.7%.

In terms of consumer batteries, demand for small cylindrical batteries has recovered. In 2024, Q1 Company shipped more than 200 million small cylindrical batteries, of which the monthly output in March exceeded 100 million, mainly due to:

1) Downstream power tool customers are nearing the end of the storage phase, and normal procurement has resumed; 2) New production capacity has been released, and contributions have begun to be made in fields such as energy storage and electric bicycles.

In terms of gross margin, the company's gross profit margin was 17.0% in 2023, +0.6pct year on year, of which power battery gross margin was 14.4%, -1.6 pct year on year, mainly due to price decline under intense market competition; energy storage battery gross margin was 17.0%, +8.1 pct year on year, mainly due to the rapid increase in the company's energy storage battery shipments to achieve scale effects and an increase in overseas shipments; consumer battery gross margin of 23.7%, -0.95pct year. The main reason was that the downstream market was still under pressure from storage and demand improved in the second half of the year. 2024Q1's gross profit margin was 17.6%, which remained stable from month to month. The main reason was the gradual increase in the company's capacity utilization rate, the dilution of fixed costs, the continuous increase in yield, and the decline in driving costs.

In terms of net interest rate, the company deducted a non-net interest rate of 5.6% in 2023, -1.8 pct year on year, mainly due to: 1) lithium prices fell sharply in 2023, and the company calculated an asset impairment loss of 365 million yuan; 2) Investment income decreased by 630 million yuan year on year due to the decline in Smore's performance and losses from Defang Everwei. 2024Q1 deducted a non-net interest rate of 7.5%, +3pct month-on-month, mainly due to the Q4 company's amortization of equity incentive expenses of 457 million yuan. After excluding the above effects, the 2023 Q4 company deducted 8.0% non-net interest rate and 2024Q1 -0.5pct month-on-month, and its operating profitability was stable.

Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2024-2025 is expected to be 4.96 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 16 or 13 times.

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