FX168 Financial News (Asia Pacific) News As more and more tourists hit the road, Chinese travel stocks rebounded. As booking giant Ctrip Group announced results on Tuesday (May 21), China's travel stocks are likely to rise further.
CCTV reports recently that Chinese President Xi Jinping called for greater efforts to accelerate the development of the country's tourism industry, including improving service quality and promoting international tourism.
On Monday, Ctrip's stock price rose 3.2% to a new high in Hong Kong, with a cumulative increase of 61% since this year. Alex ?$#@$, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said the company's unique position is to be both a “promoter and beneficiary” of inbound tourism. Travel agency Tongcheng Travel Holdings Co., Ltd. hit a new high a week ago.
“Due to the real estate industry, unemployment, and wage cuts, people have been relatively cautious in their overall spending,” said James Kenney, senior investment manager at Patek Asset Management in Hong Kong. Looking ahead, “we're going to see a two-pronged improvement — numbers will increase, but people will also spend more money when they travel.”
Morgan Stanley said that although China's economy is struggling and retail spending is still sluggish, tourism has rebounded and has become one of the strongest categories in the consumer sector. According to Bloomberg's calculation of Ministry of Culture and Tourism data, compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the number of visitors traveling during the Labor Day holiday increased by 28.2%.
It appears that this trend will continue. In January of this year, the Chinese government said that from July 2023, visa requirements for 11 countries will be relaxed. Outbound and inbound international travel is expected to increase as foreign tourists are once again keen to use China as a tourist destination.
“As people want to return to China again, we think this will be a driving force for tourism,” Patek's Kenney said. Ctrip, a subsidiary of the Ctrip Group, is an obvious beneficiary, “but it should help the hotel, restaurant, and service industries.”
Overseas bookings are roughly twice as profitable as domestic bookings. Kenney said that during the Labor Day holiday, the number of outbound travelers returned to 80% of 2019 levels and continues to improve.
According to data collected by Bloomberg, Ctrip expects revenue growth of 26% in the first quarter. Citigroup analyst Brian Gong predicts that the company is likely to exceed market expectations as investors may underestimate “good overseas and international business and improved profit margins.”
May Zhao, managing director of the research department of Zhongtai International Securities Limited in Hong Kong, said that hotel groups, including Huazhu Group Co., Ltd., will also continue to rise.
Some categories still seem to be struggling. Airlines are likely to be in trouble because travel growth “is partly due to airlines increasing capacity on major routes, leading to lower prices,” said Eric Zhu, an aviation analyst at Bloomberg Industry Research. The performance of China International Airlines and China Eastern Airlines Hong Kong stocks so far this year has not been as good as the benchmark index.
Stocks that target high-end customers may also take longer to recover. Per capita travel spending is still 12% lower than in 2019, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
But there are catalysts, especially when schools are scheduled to take summer vacations in July and August.
Analysts Angela Hanlee and Rebecca Wang wrote that according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg Industry Research last month, the number of people planning to spend more money on domestic travel in the next three months rose 9 percentage points to 59% compared to January, while international travel soared 12 percentage points to 73%.