Description of the event
The company's total revenue in 2023 was RMB 30.233 billion (+20.34% YoY); net profit attributable to mother was RMB 13.246 billion (+27.79% YoY). The company's total revenue for 2023Q4 was RMB 8.291 billion (+9.1% YoY); net profit to mother was RMB 2.68 billion (+24.78% YoY), after deducting non-net profit of RMB 2,661 billion (+23.5% YoY). The company's total revenue for 2024Q1 was 9.188 billion yuan (+20.74% YoY); net profit to mother was 4.574 billion yuan (+23.2% YoY). The company successfully completed the 15% year-on-year revenue growth target set in 2022, and the target revenue growth rate for 24 years was about 15% year-on-year.
Incident comments
The product structure continued to improve, and the company achieved a sharp rise in volume and price. Liquor business revenue in 2023 was RMB 30.077 billion (+21.45% YoY), with sales volume of 96,300 kiloliters of liquor (+11.71% YoY), including 37,600 kiloliters of medium and high-end alcoholic beverages (+1.24% YoY) and 58,700 kiloliters of other alcoholic beverages (+19.64% YoY). In 2023, the tonnage price of liquor was 312,400 yuan/kilolitre (+8.71% YoY), including 714,200 yuan/kilolitre (+19.79% YoY) for medium and high-end alcoholic beverages (+19.79%), and 55,500 yuan/kilolitre for other alcoholic beverages (+2.7% YoY). Specifically, in 2023, the company Guojiao is expected to continue to lead growth. Waist products perform steadily, with specialty 60 performing relatively well. 2024Q1 benefited from a good start. Guojiao is expected to maintain steady double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, and waist products are expected to grow faster than Guojiao.
Cash flow and contract liabilities performed well. The company's total revenue +△ contract liabilities in 2023 was RMB 30.34 billion (+25.48% YoY), and the company's total revenue for 2024Q1 +△ contract liabilities was RMB 9.05 billion (+33.69% YoY). The company received cash flow of $31,589 billion from sales of goods and provision of services in 2023 (+21.91% YoY), and 2024Q1 received cash flow of 10.641 billion yuan from sales of goods and provision of labor services (+32.31% YoY). Guojiao's successful repayment was completed successfully. Benefiting from a good start off payment, the company's contract debt and cash flow performance was strong.
Profitability continues to increase. The company's net profit margin for 2023 increased 2.56 pct to 43.81% year on year, gross margin +1.71 pct year on year to 88.3% year on year, and the cost ratio for the period -1.6 pct year on year to 16.43% year on year. The company's 2024Q1 net profit margin increased 0.99 pct to 49.78% year on year, gross margin was +0.28 pct year on year to 88.37% year on year, and the cost ratio for the period was -2.26 pct year on year to 9.96% year on year, and the company's profitability continued to increase.
Guojiao has achieved a sharp rise in volume and price, mid-range wine has already come out of the adjustment period, and the company has ushered in a period of high potential development. Currently, Guojiao continues to rise rapidly in current volume and price. It has strong national expansion capacity. It closely follows Wuliangye, and has the ability to release quickly at a low level. Currently, Guojiao's overall success is relatively good, and there is strong certainty about its performance throughout the year. At the same time, the company's mid-range liquor has come out of the adjustment period and is expected to become a new growth pole for the company in the future. EPS is expected to be 11.13/13.49 yuan in 2024/2025, corresponding to the latest PE 17/14 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Industry demand falls short of expectations;
2. Increased market price fluctuations, etc.