港股概念追踪 |供应端存在不确定因素 原油需求预期改善(附概念股)

Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Supply-side uncertainties improve crude oil demand expectations (with concept stocks)

Zhitong Finance ·  May 20 13:48

As demand expectations from China and the US rise sharply, market confidence continues to improve, and investor sentiment is also expected to improve.

In recent months, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the situation in the Middle East, uncertainty about Europe's economic outlook and downside risks have further increased, and oil prices have risen.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani (Mohammed Shia Al Sudani) said at a televised press conference that there has been no progress in long-term negotiations between international oil companies to resume crude oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region.

There are currently uncertainties on the supply side.

The OPEC+ June Ministerial Meeting is coming soon. This meeting will determine OPEC+'s production plan for the second half of the year. Previously, when market confidence was low, investors remained highly wary of this meeting.

Currently, with demand expectations from China and the US recovering sharply, market confidence is also improving, and investors' sentiment is also expected to improve.

CICC believes that if the Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend tax relief is implemented, it is expected to further boost the enthusiasm of mainland investors to invest in Hong Kong stocks, especially in sectors related to high dividends. Everbright Securities previously stated that when calculating the dynamic dividend rate based on the stock price of February 23, 2024, the expected dividend rates for CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC A-shares in 2023 are 5.34%, 6.20%, and 4.64%, respectively. The dividend ratio is in a high position in the high-dividend sector.

GF Securities pointed out that since the second quarter, oil prices have remained high, driven by factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and the conflict between Iraq and Israel. According to Wind, since the second quarter of '24, the price of Brent oil has been 89 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 8.94% over the previous month. Looking at the short term, OPEC+ continued to cut production in the second quarter, and the peak summer demand season is approaching. The IMF expects Saudi Arabia to balance oil prices at 96 US dollars/barrel, which is supported by oil prices.

Crude oil-related listed companies include:

Sinopec (00386), CNPC (00857) rose, CNOOC (00883)

Oil service category: CNOOC Service (02883)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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