24Q1量价齐升，业绩同比大幅改善。1）量：24Q1锡锭产量2.24万吨，同环比+7.7%/+6.7%；铜3.47万吨，同环比+25.7%/+17.2%；锌产品3.31万吨，同环比+7.1%/+6.8%。2）价：24Q1锡均价21.7万元/吨，同环比+3.9%/+3.7%；铜均价6.94万元/吨，同环比+1.1%/+1.9%；锌锭均价2.09万元/吨，同环比-10.0%/-1.4%。3）利：24Q1公司实现毛利9.4亿元，环比-1.36%，同比+10.4%，实现毛利率11.2%。Q1因春节因素矿端成本处于相对较高水平，预计后期矿端正常生产。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released the 2023 report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 42.34 billion yuan, -18.5% year on year; net profit to mother of 1.41 billion yuan, +4.6% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 1.38 billion yuan, +11.2% year over year. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 8.40 billion yuan, -24.5% YoY, -3.47%; net profit to mother of 326 million yuan, +22.1% YoY, +4.2% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 304 million yuan, +17.5% YoY and -22.6% month-on-month.
The rebound in tin prices bottomed out in 2023 combined with an increase in production helped release performance. 1) Volume: In '23, the company completed 80,000 tons of tin ingots, of which 25,000 tons of tin ore were produced, +4.1% year on year; copper production was 129,300 tons, +2.8% year on year, and 24,000 tons of copper ore production, -0.9% year on year; zinc product output was 134,700 tons, -1.2% year on year, 102,000 tons of zinc ore, +8.8% year on year; indium production was 102 tons, +39.7% year over year. 2) Price: The average price of tin ingots in '23 was 21,300 yuan/ton, -14.9% year on year, but the price stabilized from extreme market conditions; the average price of zinc ingots was 21,500 yuan/ton, -14.3% YoY. 3) Profit: The company achieved gross profit of 3.88 billion yuan in '23, or -22.5% over the same period, achieving a gross profit margin of 9.2%. However, after the price of tin stabilized, the company's asset impairment decreased drastically year-on-year in 2023, and net profit to mother increased dramatically.
Volume and price rose sharply in 24Q1, and performance improved significantly year over year. 1) Volume: 24Q1 tin ingot output was 22,400 tons, +7.7%/+6.7% YoY; 34,700 tons of copper, +25.7%/+17.2% YoY; 33,300 tons of zinc products, +7.1%/+6.8% YoY. 2) Price: The average price of tin in 24Q1 was 217,000 yuan/ton, +3.9%/+3.7%; the average price of copper was 69,400 yuan/ton, +1.1%/+1.9% year on month; the average price of zinc ingots was 20,900 yuan/ton, -10.0%/-1.4%. 3) Profit: 24Q1 achieved gross profit of 940 million yuan, -1.36% month-on-month and +10.4% year-on-year, achieving a gross profit margin of 11.2%. Q1 Due to Spring Festival factors, the mine side costs are at a relatively high level, and it is expected that the mine side will produce normally in the later stages.
The total production of non-ferrous metals is planned to be 348,600 tons in 2024. In 2024, the company will continue to focus on fine management and strengthen the mine foundation. It plans to target 85,000 tons of fine tin production, 130,000 tons of copper, 131,600 tons of zinc products, and 77.8 tons of indium in 2024.
Profit forecast and investment advice: According to the latest market price and the latest annual report, we raised our tin price expectations. We expect the company's net profit to be 21.00/23.7/2.41 billion yuan in 24-26 (the value was 18.2/2.10 billion yuan before 24-25), and the corresponding EPS was 1.28/1.44/1.47 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current 14/12/12XPE, respectively, and given an 18X valuation in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 22.97 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: tin prices fall short of expectations, production safety risks