JD Logistics (2618.HK): Positive business growth drives continuous increase in profits

華泰證券 · May 18

1Q24 盈利同比扭亏为盈，业务增长向好推动盈利持续提升京东物流公布1Q24 业绩：1）总收入同比增长14.7%至421.4 亿元；2）毛利率同比提升3.2pct 至7.7%；3）归母净利/Non-IFRS 利润为2.4 亿/6.6亿元，同比扭亏为盈（1Q23：-9.9 亿/-7.1 亿元）。盈利提升主因公司内外部业务收入增长向好，叠加随业务规模拓展带来规模效益释放。1Q24 来自京东集团业务收入同比增长14.9%至128.8 亿元；来自外部客户收入同比增长14.7%至292.5 亿元；外部供应链客户数量和单客平均收入同比分别增长2.4%/2.8%，业务发展势头向好，盈利能力持续提升。我们维持净利预测和目标价12.0 港币（基于0.4x 2024E PS），维持“买入”评级。

外部业务收入规模持续增长，客户数量/单客平均收入同比保持增长1Q24 外部业务收入同比增长14.7%至292.5 亿元，占总收入的69.4%（1Q23：69.5%，占比小幅下降主因来自京东集团收入增速回升）；来自京东集团的收入为128.8 亿元，同比增长14.9%，占总收入的30.6%（1Q23：

30.5%）。外部一体化供应链客户数量同比增长2.4%至55,760；单客平均收入同比增长2.8%。外部客户数量和单客平均收入维持上行趋势，表现出公司的一体化供应链方案以及高质量服务受到市场和客户认可，具备竞争优势。我们认为京东物流外部业务将保持增长态势，逐步发挥规模效益，摊薄成本，实现盈利端的持续增长。

毛利同比显著增长，1Q24 Non-IFRS 利润率提升至1.6%成本端，公司营业成本同比增长10.9%至389.1 亿元，与收入增速规模相吻合，增长主因随着业务规模的扩大，员工数量增长、外包服务增多、仓库及分拣中心的规模扩张以及车辆折旧费用增加。盈利端，1Q24 盈利水平同比显著提升。1Q24 毛利润大幅增长至32.3 亿元（1Q23：16.4 亿元）；毛利率7.7%（1Q23：4.5%）。Non-IFRS 利润率1.6%（上年同期亏损）。实现扭亏为盈主因：1）业务规模的扩大带来规模效应，单位成本下降推升盈利；2）优化业务及网络结构，降本增效。

仓储网络覆盖全国，看好公司海外端扩展

截至3 月31 日，公司的仓储网络几乎覆盖了全国的所有地区，公司运营1,600 多个自营仓库和2,000 多个第三方云仓，总仓储管理面积超过3,200万平方米。海外业务方面，公司持续助力中国品牌一站式出海，为出海企业提供一体化供应链物流服务，涉及海外市场门店的仓储和配送服务。我们看好京东海外业务的持续拓展，通过打造海外增长曲线增厚中长期利润。

风险提示：1）收入增长低于我们的预期；2）成本高于我们的预期；3）竞争激烈；4）政策风险。

1Q24 profit turned a profit year on year, and positive business growth drove profits to continue to increase JD Logistics announced 1Q24 results: 1) total revenue increased 14.7% year over year to 42.14 billion yuan; 2) gross margin increased 3.2 pct year on year to 7.7%; 3) net profit/non-IFRS profit to mother was 240 million/660 million yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into profit (1Q23: -990 million/-71 million yuan). The increase in profit was mainly due to the positive growth of the company's internal and external business revenue, which combined with the expansion of business scale brought about the release of economies of scale. 1Q24 business revenue from JD Group increased 14.9% year on year to 12.88 billion yuan; revenue from external customers increased 14.7% year over year to 29.25 billion yuan; the number of external supply chain customers and average revenue per customer increased 2.4%/2.8% year on year, respectively. The business development momentum is improving, and profitability continues to increase. We maintain our net profit forecast and target price of HK$12.0 (based on 0.4x 2024E PS) and maintain a “buy” rating.

The scale of external business revenue continued to grow. The number of customers/average revenue per customer continued to grow in 1Q24, external business revenue increased 14.7% year over year to 29.25 billion yuan, accounting for 69.4% of total revenue (1Q23:69.5%, accounting for a slight decline mainly due to the recovery in revenue growth of JD Group); revenue from JD Group was 12.8.8 billion yuan, up 14.9% year on year, accounting for 30.6% of total revenue (1Q23:

30.5%). The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased 2.4% year over year to 55,760; average revenue per customer increased 2.8% year over year. The number of external customers and average revenue per customer maintained an upward trend, indicating that the company's integrated supply chain solutions and high-quality services were recognized by the market and customers, and had a competitive advantage. We believe that the external business of JD Logistics will maintain its growth trend, gradually take advantage of economies of scale, dilute costs, and achieve continuous growth on the profit side.

Gross profit increased significantly year-on-year. The 1Q24 non-IFRS profit margin increased to 1.6% on the cost side, and the company's operating costs increased 10.9% year over year to 38.91 billion yuan, which is in line with the scale of revenue growth. The main reason for the increase was the increase in the number of employees, the increase in outsourced services, the expansion of the scale of warehouses and sorting centers, and the increase in vehicle depreciation expenses as the scale of the business expanded. On the profit side, 1Q24 profit levels increased significantly year over year. 1Q24 gross profit increased sharply to $3.23 billion (1Q23: $1.64 billion); gross profit margin 7.7% (1Q23:4.5%). Non-IFRS profit margin 1.6% (loss for the same period last year). Achieving loss reversal is due to: 1) the expansion of the scale of the business brought about a scale effect, and the reduction in unit costs boosts profits; 2) optimizing the business and network structure to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

The warehousing network covers the whole country, and I am optimistic about the company's overseas expansion

As of March 31, the company's warehousing network covered almost all regions of the country. The company operated more than 1,600 self-operated warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party cloud warehouses, with a total storage management area of over 32 million square meters. In terms of overseas business, the company continues to help Chinese brands go overseas in one stop, providing integrated supply chain logistics services for overseas enterprises, involving warehousing and distribution services for overseas market stores. We are optimistic about the continued expansion of JD's overseas business and increase medium- to long-term profits by creating an overseas growth curve.

Risk warning: 1) Revenue growth is below our expectations; 2) Costs are higher than our expectations; 3) Competition is intense; 4) Policy risk.

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京东物流(2618.HK)：业务增长向好带动盈利持续提升

JD Logistics (2618.HK): Positive business growth drives continuous increase in profits

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