需求边际改善，价格仍有压力。1）造纸：23 年实现收入192.4 亿元，同比-11.8%，量价分别同比+10.0%/-19.7%。据海关总署统计，2023 年箱板纸进口总量达532.46 万吨，同比增长了48.15%；瓦楞纸进口量达359.11 万吨，同比增长47.82%。行业新增产能释放、成品纸进口关税调整和市场需求疲软等多重因素影响下，23 年纸价承压下行，后续在低位震荡。据卓创资讯统计，2023年AA 级120g 瓦楞纸全年均价为2914 元/吨，同比跌幅18.7%；箱板纸全年均价3947 元/吨，同比下滑16.47%。受益于木浆和国废黄板纸价格下跌，23年造纸业务毛利率同比+1.4pct 至7.5%。2）包装：23 年实现收入70.8 亿元，同比-7.8%，量价分别同比-3.3%/-4.7%。公司积极开拓高潜客户份额，新增了日化、快消、食品等行业大客户订单，2023 年包装板块集团大客户销售订单份额占比提升至42%，同比增加约9 个百分点。23 年包装业务实现毛利率13.4%，同比+2.7pct。Matters:
The company announced the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 23, the company achieved operating income of 29.33 billion yuan (YOY -13.8%), achieved net profit of 160 million yuan (YOY +106.9%), slightly exceeding the performance forecast, and achieved net profit deducted from non-return to mother of 300 million yuan. 24Q1 achieved operating income of 6.67 billion yuan (YOY +5.0%), realized net profit of 40 million yuan (YOY +111.4%); realized net profit without deduction of 0.2 billion yuan (YOY +95.9%). In '23, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 47.52 million yuan, with a dividend ratio of 30.4%.
Commentary:
Demand has improved marginally, and prices are still under pressure. 1) Papermaking: Achieved revenue of 19.24 billion yuan in '23, -11.8% YoY, +10.0%/-19.7% YoY in volume and price, respectively. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the total import volume of boxboard paper reached 5.324,600 tons in 2023, an increase of 48.15% over the previous year; imports of corrugated paper reached 3.5911 million tons, an increase of 47.82% over the previous year. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the release of new production capacity in the industry, the adjustment of import tariffs on finished paper, and weak market demand, paper prices declined under pressure in 23, and then fluctuated at a low level. According to statistics from Zhuochuang, the average annual price of AA-grade 120g corrugated paper in 2023 was 2,914 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%; the average annual price of box board paper was 3,947 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47%. Benefiting from falling prices of wood pulp and domestic waste yellow board, the gross margin of the paper business was +1.4pct to 7.5% year-on-year in '23. 2) Packaging: Achieved revenue of 7.08 billion yuan in 23 years, -7.8% year-on-year, and -3.3%/-4.7% of volume and price, respectively. The company actively developed high-potential customer share and added orders from major customers in the daily chemical, FMCG, food and other industries. In 2023, the share of sales orders from major customers in the packaging sector group increased to 42%, an increase of about 9 percentage points over the previous year. The packaging business achieved a gross profit margin of 13.4% in '23, +2.7 pct.
Cost improvements drive profit restoration, and management actively cuts salaries to optimize rates. 1) In '23, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 9.9%, +2.6 pct compared to the previous year, or cost improvement mainly due to lower raw material prices. On the cost side, the company achieved a sales/management/finance expense ratio of 1.3%/4.8%/3.6%, compared to +0.1/+0.2/+1.1 pct. The increase in the financial expense ratio or mainly due to increased interest expenses and exchange losses; at the same time, the company's core management took the initiative to cut salaries within 23 years, and the management expense ratio was controlled. Taken together, the company achieved a net interest rate of 0.5% to mother in '23, +7.2pct year-on-year. 2) In 24Q1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 9.9%, +2.2pct/month-on-month. On the cost side, the company achieved a sales/management/financial expense ratio of 1.3%/4.4%/4.1%. -0.1/-1.7/-0.7pct year on year, driving net profit margin +6.0 pct to 0.6% year over year.
The production capacity layout is progressing sequentially, and medium- to long-term incentives enable growth. At present, the company has formed a layout advantage of over 8 million tons in the core regions of East China, South China, and Central China, and the Suzhou base's production capacity of 1.8 million tons is still under construction. At the same time, the company introduced a 24-26 long-term incentive management method to bind core personnel, which is expected to improve the company's management level and stimulate employee enthusiasm.
Investment advice: The company is a leading domestic boxboard paper company. With the advantages of industrial chain integration, it has achieved collaborative development of the three businesses of paper making, packaging and fiber recycling. Considering that the boom in the corrugated paper and box board paper industry is still weak, we expect the company's net profit to be 6.28/8.69/1,236 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (the value was 1,012/16.17 billion yuan before 24/25), corresponding to the current stock price PE 13/10/7 times. Using the PB valuation method, the company was given a target PB of 0.68X for 2024, corresponding to a stock price of 2.18 yuan, to maintain a “strong” rating.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, demand recovery falls short of expectations, etc.
