化药板块走出集采影响，中药板块稳定增长：化药板块核心品种文拉法辛和阿立哌唑已经参与第五批和第七批集采，对于业绩最大的影响已经在2021-2023 年化药板块业务有所体现，预期后续影响逐步削弱，且化药板块草酸艾司西酞普兰口服液/片、氢溴酸伏硫西汀片等新品刚刚上市，有望在2024 年贡献新增量，化药板块整体负面影响趋弱；中药板块整体较为稳健，受益于舒肝解郁的持续放量潜力，预期中药板块有望保持稳定增长水平。Key points of investment:
The new indications for Compecip RVO are expected to drive rapid growth in 24 years of performance, and in the long run, it is expected to become a billion-dollar cash flow variety: the new indication of compassic retinal venous obstruction (RVO) was included in the medical insurance catalogue through negotiations in 2022, officially implemented on March 1, 2023, and Copercip achieved rapid growth (41.7% year-on-year increase). 2024Q1 Compassip continued its good growth momentum (49% year over year) and is expected to maintain high growth throughout the year. Although there are many varieties of anti-VEFG currently being developed in China, compassic has obvious advantages such as indications (complete coverage), compliance (fewer uses), and treatment costs (lower than ranibizumab and abibasip).
Furthermore, judging from the penetration rate, assuming that 3 sticks are used per capita, we expect that the total number of people covered by CompiCip since its launch is less than 1 million people. Considering the domestic market space for eye treatment of 10 million people, the treatment rate is still at an extremely low level. Furthermore, the price system is expected to be maintained, and there is no need to worry about the worsening competitive landscape for the time being. We believe that in the long term, Compaq is expected to become a billion-dollar cash flow product.
The chemical sector has emerged from collection, and the Chinese medicine sector is growing steadily: venlafaxine and aripiprazole, the core varieties of the chemical sector, have participated in the fifth and seventh batches of collection. The biggest impact on the performance was reflected in the chemical sector business in 2021-2023. Subsequent effects are expected to gradually weaken, and new products such as escitalopram oxalate oral solution/tablets and vortioxetine hydrobromide tablets in the chemical sector have just been launched. It is expected that the overall negative impact of the chemical sector will weaken; the overall negative impact of the Chinese medicine sector will be relatively stable Health benefits from the sustained dosage potential for liver relief and depression. Expected Chinese medicine board The block is expected to maintain a steady level of growth.
The innovation pipeline is rich and differentiated, and the potential space is large: the company is developing innovative drugs focusing on the fields of ophthalmology, neurology and oncology. The clinical market potential of related products is huge, and some products may be catalyzed by reading clinical data within the year. (1) Ophthalmology field: The first-generation fundus disease gene therapy product KH631 and the second-generation gene therapy product KH658 are progressing in an orderly manner. Similar varieties have had an AbbVie acquisition precedent for 1.7 billion US dollars, and the variety potential is huge. In addition, the overseas benchmark AbbVie ABBV-RGX-314 variety may have new data in Q3 2024. (2) In the field of neurology: The innovative traditional Chinese medicine drug Five Plus Nootropics (KH110) is currently in phase II clinical phase. (3) Oncology field: KH617, the first innovative drug on the company's synthetic biology platform to treat glioma, has been certified as an orphan drug by the FDA and is currently in phase 1 clinical phase.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company's revenue growth rate in 2024-2026 to be 20%/15%/14%, the net profit growth rate to mother will be 21%/17%/14%, and EPS will be 1.37 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.84 yuan, respectively. Using the comparable company valuation method, the average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 was 22 times, and the company's PE was only 17 times. We believe that the company's Compecip is still in a period of rapid growth, and that the company's innovative drug clinical pipeline is rich and differentiated, giving it a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning
The risk of increased competition in the Compecip market; the risk of falling market entry and sales prices; the risk of drug development; the risk of lack of talent
