Domestic stock market outlook: The direction of the Nikkei Average depends on the financial results of US NVIDIA

Fisco Japan ·  May 18 12:12

■Interest is concentrated on stocks that have announced financial results

This week's Nikkei average rose 558.27 yen (+ 1.46%) to 38787.38 yen per week. As corporate financial results peaked and individual stock prices strengthened, the April US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which attracted attention, fell below market expectations, so observations of interest rate cuts twice within the year intensified, and US 10-year bond yields declined. US stocks were bought due to falling interest rates, and the three major indices of the NY Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all hit record highs, so it looked like the Nikkei Average was being held. Since trading spread mainly in settlement stocks such as Sony Group <6758>, Obayashi Gumi <1802>, ENEOSHD <5020>, and Nitori HD <9843>, etc., trading prices in the Prime Market continued in the 5 trillion yen range after the 14th, but since financial results announcements went round, it remained in the 4 trillion yen range over the weekend.

Note, according to trading trends by investor for the 2nd week of May, foreign investors overbought actual goods by 270.1 billion yen, oversold TOPIX futures by 119.4 billion yen, and 225 futures were oversold by 230 billion yen, resulting in a total oversale of 79.3 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors oversold actual products by 52.8 billion yen in total, such as overselling actual products by 52.8 billion yen. Furthermore, I oversold the actual product by 252.2 billion yen.

■NVIDIA shares are already close to the highest level in history

US stocks were mixed this weekend. The NY Dow reached 40,000 dollars for the first time on a closing price basis of 40003.59 dollars, 134.21 dollars higher (+ 0.34%) than the previous day. The Nasdaq was 12.35 points lower (-0.07%) at 16685.96 dollars, and the S&P 500 was 6.17 points higher (+ 0.12%) at 5303.27. Incidentally, Nikkei 225 futures from the Taisen Night Session closed at 38690 yen, when the regular closing price was 50 yen lower.

After rising above the downward 25-day moving average line (38370 yen), the Nikkei Average also fits at the 38602 yen level where the 75-day moving average is located. The backlash continued starting from the current low of 36733.06 yen during trading hours set on 4/19. The 38387 yen level, which is the lower cloud limit of the Ichimoku equilibrium chart on the daily chart, is recognized as a support line, but if this level is broken, there is a possibility that it will drop to 38,000 yen at once.

Meanwhile, TOPIX has managed to maintain above the 25-day moving average since the end of April, and it also matches the cloud upper limit on the daily Ichimoku equilibrium table. The Nikkei Average is relatively weaker than TOPIX because the semiconductor stock Tokyo Electron <8035> has lost its sense of direction. There will be no sense of direction for semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron until the financial results of the US semiconductor stock NVIDIA scheduled for 5/22 (before dawn on the 23rd Japan time) are confirmed. Furthermore, since expectations for financial results are growing, NVIDIA is already close to the highest price level in history. In order for NVIDIA to rise even after financial results are announced, it can be said that it is a situation where a great deal of surprise is necessary. I want to be wary of the fact that NVIDIA's financial hurdles are rising.

■Bank of Japan cuts government bond purchases

There have been movements in the bond market this week. On 5/13, in an open market operation, the Bank of Japan set the planned purchase amount for the remaining period “5 to 10 years or less” to 425 billion yen, and reduced 50 billion yen from 475 billion yen on the previous 4/24. This is the first time since the negative interest rate policy was lifted in March that the planned purchase amount has been reduced. In response to the announcement of the reduction policy, yields on newly issued 10-year bonds, which are indicators of long-term interest rates, rose in the government bond market, and temporarily rose to 0.965% on the 14th to the level since 0.970% in November last year. The downturn in the US CPI on the 15th was also added, and since the view that “the Japan-US interest rate difference will shrink” became stronger, there was also a scene where the exchange rate entered the 1 dollar = 153 yen range. Since the amount was not reduced on the 17th of the weekend, speculation about full-scale purchase cuts receded. Since the rise in 10-year bond yields came to an end, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar progressed, which was conscious of the Japan-US interest rate difference, and the exchange rate remained in the latter half of the 1 dollar = 155 yen range.

In the main opinions of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting held on 4/25-26, which was announced on the 9th, there were voices saying “it is important to seize the opportunity and proceed with government bond purchase reductions while observing market trends and government bond supply and demand,” so it seems that the Bank of Japan has decided to reduce the amount this time. The depreciation trend of yen exchange is no longer necessarily a tailwind for Japanese stocks, but if the yen appreciates moderately and the dollar depreciates moderately in the future, there is almost no doubt that it will weigh on export-related stocks.

■PMI announcements have been made one after another in Europe and the US

Next week, domestically, the March 3rd Industrial Activity Index is scheduled for the 20th, the March machine order acceptance on the 22nd, and the April Consumer Price Index for the 24th.

Overseas, the Mid-Year Loan/5-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on the 20th, the NZ/New Zealand Reserve Bank (central bank) announced policy interest rates on the 22nd, UK/April CPI, retail price index (RPI), producer price index (PPI), US/April used house sales volume, weekly crude oil inventory, May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, May French manufacturing/service industry purchasing manager business climate index PMI (preliminary figures) on the 23rd PMI (preliminary value), Europe/May Eurozone manufacturing/service industry PMI (preliminary value), English/May manufacturing/service industry PMI (preliminary value), Turkey/Central Bank announces policy interest rate, number of new US weekly unemployment insurance claims, US May manufacturing/service industry PMI (preliminary value), number of new housing sales in April, UK and April retail sales volume on the 24th, Germany's real gross domestic product (GDP, revised value) for the fiscal year ending January-March period (preliminary value), US/April durable goods order (preliminary value), US/April durable goods order (preliminary value), University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (confirmed value) etc. are planned.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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