The US Consultative Conference's leading economic indicators fell 0.6% month-on-month in April, weaker than expectations and a 0.3% decline from previous values. According to some analysts, this is the second month in a row that the index has declined, indicating that “the US economy is facing serious resistance.” Factors such as deteriorating consumer prospects for business conditions, weak new orders, and declining permits to build new homes all contributed to the decline.

Eurozone inflation increased 2.4% year on year in April, the same level as March, strengthening market expectations that the ECB will start cutting interest rates as early as June. According to some analysts, European inflation will fall faster than previously estimated this year, and the impact caused by the Red Sea conflict will be less than expected. The European Commission said that inflation will return to the 2% target in the second half of next year, and many central bank voting committees praised the inflation mitigation process.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman reiterated that if US inflation cools down or the trend reverses, they will be willing to support interest rate hikes. Because they are open to raising interest rates again, the increase in US bond yields will rapidly expand to a higher level.

The Dow reached a new high and closed above 40,000 points for the first time. Google hit a three-day high. Fangduo surged 311%, and Haidilao rose 53% in the intraday period

On Friday May 17, the three major US stock indices collectively opened slightly higher, but half an hour after opening, the NASDAQ, which has mostly technology stocks, took the lead in falling. The S&P 500 index was unable to continue to stand above 5,300 points and turned down 40 minutes after opening.

Before noon trading, all major indices except the Dow hovered between ups and downs. At the end of the session, the S&P rose again, and the NASDAQ came close to recovering all of its losses. The Dow, where blue-chip stocks converged, expanded at the end of the session, closing above 40,000 points for the first time in history, but small-cap stocks turned down to no more than 2,100 points.

By the close, the Dow had reached a record high, rising 1.2% throughout the week and rising for five consecutive weeks. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are approaching record highs set on Wednesday, rising 1.5% and 2.1%, respectively, throughout the week, and both have been rising for four consecutive weeks for the first time since February:

The S&P 500 closed up 6.17 points, or 0.12%, to 5303.27 points. The Dow closed up 134.21 points, or 0.34%, to 40003.59 points. The NASDAQ closed down 12.35 points, or 0.07%, to 16685.97 points.

The NASDAQ 100 fell slightly, and the NASDAQ Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of NASDAQ 100 technology constituents, fell 0.27%, falling two days in a row from a record high, but this week it continued to rise 2.1% and 3.1%, respectively.

The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index fell 0.03%, rising 1.7% this week. The “Panic Index” VIX fell 3.5% to less than 12, approaching the closing level of 11.75 on November 27, 2019, and falling 4.54% this week.

The information technology and real estate sector led the market increase this week, rising 3% and 2.5% respectively. This was followed by the healthcare and communications services sectors, which surged 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively. The non-essential consumer goods and industrial sectors performed the worst. However, the tech sector fell 0.5% on Friday.

Morgan Stanley believes that a soft landing in the US economy is still the most likely scenario, but it has reduced the probability of occurrence from 80% to 50%, and the S&P market is expected to fall 15% to 4,500 points by the end of the year. The bank and BlackRock both expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September, or cut interest rates three times this year. Barclays warned of potential stagflation and geopolitical risks, or caught investors off guard.

Most of the star tech stocks rose. The “metaverse” Meta fell 0.3%, Amazon rose 0.6% and still hovered at a monthly low. Apple turned to a four-month high, and Microsoft turned 0.2% down from a one-month high for two consecutive days. Nigeria soared 1.7% to a one-month high. Google A rose more than 1%, rising for five consecutive days and hitting a record closing high for three consecutive days. Tesla rose 1.5%.

Most chip stocks fell, but AMD rose more than 1%, the highest for four consecutive months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index opened high and went low, turning down 0.7% and falling below the 5,000 point mark. It fell for two consecutive days from a two-month high, but it is not far from the record high reached in early March, and has accumulated a 3.6% increase this week. Nvidia fell about 2%, continuing to break away from a two-month high, but this week it rose 2.9% and continued to rise for four weeks; Nvidia doubled and the ETF fell by about 4%; Intel fell 0.6% to break away from the three-week high; Arm fell more than 3%, which was good for Applied Materials to open 2.5% higher but fell nearly 1% after the earnings report.

AI concept stocks had mixed ups and downs. Palantir and C3.ai rose nearly 1%, Soundhound.ai turned down 1%, and Oracle rose more than 1%, the highest in four to six weeks. BigBear.ai fell more than 3%, ultra-micro computers and Snowflake fell nearly 2%, Astera Labs, the Silicon Valley artificial intelligence infrastructure hardware unicorn, fell 0.7%, and Alibaba's ADR rose by more than 4%, continuing yesterday's 7% increase.

In the news, there are reports that Snowflake is in talks to acquire Reka AI, a big language model startup founded by Google and Meta researchers, for over $1 billion. Nvidia-backed AI cloud supply startup CoreWeave raised $7.5 billion from investors such as Blackstone, Carlyle Group, and BlackRock to advance artificial intelligence computing. Apple may be planning to launch a significantly thinner and more expensive iPhone next year.

Microsoft plans to include the latest Call of Duty game games in the subscription service next month, making major adjustments to its video game sales strategy. The British antitrust agency is no longer investigating Microsoft's cooperation with French startup Mistral AI, but the EU requires Microsoft to provide sufficient information on the risks arising from the Bing search engine's generative AI function before the end of the month.

The Chinese stock index outperformed the US stock market, but the increase narrowed at the end of the session. ETF KWEB rose 0.3%, CQQQ rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up 0.4% after rising 1.7%. It rose above 7,000 points intraday, reaching an eight-month high since September last year.

Among popular individual stocks, JD rose nearly 3%, Baidu fell nearly 2%, Pinduoduo and Alibaba rose about 2%; Tencent ADR fell 0.4%, Station B rose 2.5%, NIO rose 0.3%, Ideal Auto fell more than 1%, and Xiaopeng Motor, which plans to launch its first flying car, rose 0.4%. Special Sea International (HDL), a subsidiary of Haidilao, rose 53% intraday on the first day of its IPO and closed up 14%. After rising 136% in the future, Faraday plummeted and triggered a meltdown, closing down more than 38%, and is still rising more than 2100% this week.

The People's Bank of China introduced three real estate finance policies to stabilize the property market, causing Shell's US stock market to rise by more than 9% and Fuduoduo by more than 450% before the market. After opening, Shell rose 7% and then closed up nearly 2%, the highest for 7 to 14 months; Fangduo once surged 412% and triggered a meltdown, the biggest increase since June 2020, and finally closed 311% to the highest in eight months.

Other stocks that have changed a lot include:

“American Tieba” Reddit, where retail investors are concentrated, rose more than 17% and then collected more than 10%, setting the third highest record since launch in late March. A cooperation agreement was reached with OpenAI. The content will be introduced into products such as ChatGPT, which can use forum data to train AI models.

The enthusiasm of retail investors to group concept stocks subsided, and Game Station fell close to 20%. This week's increase narrowed sharply from 271% to 27%. It plans to issue up to 45 million additional Class A shares. It said that there were no major changes in the financial situation, but initial sales declined in the first quarter and fell short of expectations. AMC cinemas fell more than 5% on Friday, and the weekly increase also narrowed from 308% to 51%.

The American restaurant Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, which focuses on country style and nostalgic products, fell more than 14% to a 12-year low since the beginning of 2012, which will drastically cut dividends by 80% to support the transformation plan.

DXC Technology Company, an IT company with an enterprise technology stack, closed down 17% after opening 21%, hitting a four-year low since September 2020. Although the results for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year exceeded expectations, profit and revenue guidance for the next quarter was poor.

Walmart, the largest retailer in the US, rose more than 1% to an all-time high. Yesterday, it surged 7% due to favorable financial reports, supporting the Dow's rise as a constituent stock. Influencer internet brokerage firm Robinhood rose 12%, while Bank of America turned bullish and raised its rating by two levels to buying.

Chubb Insurance rose 3.6%, reaching a record high for two consecutive days, rising 8.4% in the last two days, the biggest two-day increase since 2020 when Berkshire Hathaway, a subsidiary of “stock god” Buffett, disclosed its holdings.

European stocks generally fell on Friday, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell from a record high for two days. Dragged down by industrial and technology stocks, it ended nine days of continuous gains on Wednesday, but this week it continued to rise 0.4% and continued to rise for two weeks. Swiss luxury goods group Li Feng rose more than 5%, and sales reached a record high for the whole year.

The German stock index fell 0.4% throughout the week, breaking away from the high in intraday history set on Wednesday. The French stock index fell 0.6% throughout the week, and the British stock index fell 0.2% throughout the week, but the stock indexes of Italy and Spain, which are heavily indebted periphery countries of the Eurozone, rose 2% throughout the week.

European and US bond yields showed a V-shaped trend later this week. They rose sharply on Friday and broke away from a one-month low

Federal Reserve Governor's hawkish statement caused the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, to a daily high in midday trading, rising 4 basis points to 4.83% and back above 4.80%, recovering from the decline since Wednesday. The 10-year base bond yield rose 5 basis points to 4.42%, breaking the 4.40% mark, recovering more than half of the decline since Wednesday, and breaking away from a one-and-a-half-month low with short-term bond yields.

Throughout the week, two-year US Treasury yields declined by 4.4 basis points, and 10-year bond yields declined by a cumulative total of 8.4 basis points. Over the past three weeks, they have declined cumulatively for two weeks. The yield on 30-year long-term bonds declined by a cumulative total of 8.5 basis points throughout the week and fell for three consecutive weeks, falling 22 basis points during this period. According to some analysts, this is because leading indicators of the US economy suggest that growth is facing serious resistance.

In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have been cautious about starting interest rate cuts, saying they are still waiting for more evidence that inflation continues to slow. The financial market generally believes that interest rates will not be cut until the end of summer. The first rate cut will occur in September, and interest rates will be cut several times this year. Barclays Capital and other Wall Street's largest group of bond bears suggested selling 10-year US Treasury bonds at high prices.

European bond yields rose higher on Friday, breaking away from the one-month low set on Wednesday. This week, after US CPI inflation was released, both showed a V-shaped trend with US bond yields, which basically erased the decline since Wednesday. Eurozone's benchmark 2-year and 10-year German bond yields both rose by about 6 basis points at the end of the session. The yield on 10-year British bonds rose by 5 basis points, and along with Italian bonds, fell 4 basis points this week.

US oil surged above $80 for the first time in a month. Oil surged to $84 and surged in a single week for the first time in three weeks. Natural gas jumped

Economic indicators from major consumer countries such as the US and China have boosted hopes for demand-side improvement, and the daily rise in international oil prices has increased:

WTI crude oil futures for June closed up $0.83, or 1.05%, reaching the highest level since April 30 at $80.06 per barrel. For the first time in the month, they reached the $80 integer psychological mark, rising 2.3% throughout the week and rising for two consecutive weeks.

Brent crude oil futures for July closed up $0.71, or 0.85%, to the highest level since April 30 at $83.98 per barrel, and rose 1.4% throughout the week, for the first time in three weeks.

According to some analysts, China's economic data and stimulus measures, the two-week drop in US commercial oil stocks, and another attack on Russia's oil infrastructure have all helped boost short-term oil prices. Follow-up focus will be on the OPEC+ production meeting on June 1.

Meanwhile, the slowdown in US inflation data reinforces the reason why the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the near future, causing the dollar to depreciate against other major currencies, which is also beneficial to oil prices. Morgan Stanley also believes that global oil demand will grow faster than historical trends this year.

Furthermore, tight inventories before the peak of summer demand supported gas prices. US June natural gas futures rose more than 5% on Friday and climbed more than 16% throughout the week. TTF Dutch gas futures, the benchmark for Europe, rose nearly 2% on Friday and continued to rise for four consecutive days, rising more than 3% throughout the week.

The US dollar erased intraday gains, fell 0.8% in a single week and hovered at a one-month low, while yen and RMB fell slightly

The US dollar index DXY, which measures a basket against the six major currencies, rose 0.3% to 104.80 during the European stock session. US stocks turned down and returned to 104.45 at the end of the session, close to the monthly low set yesterday. It fell 0.8% this week, and fell 1.7% in May.

According to some analysts, this is because under signs of cooling inflation and the weakening of the US economy, the market's bet on the Fed cutting interest rates from September is heating up, and interest rates may be cut by 47 basis points during the year.

The euro and the pound rose slightly against the US dollar, and both hovered at nearly two-month highs. The Bank of Japan kept the scale of debt purchases unchanged, and the yen fell slightly to 155.66 against the US dollar, breaking away from a one-week high and maintaining the low level since the collapse of Japan's asset bubble in 1990. The offshore renminbi fell 100 points against the US dollar and fell below 7.23 yuan, erasing most of the gains since Wednesday.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are generally rising. Bitcoin, the largest market capitalization leader, rose 2% and rose above $66,400 to its highest level in nearly four weeks since April 22. Ethereum, the second-largest, rose more than 4% and returned above the $3,000 mark, hitting a two-week high.

Futures and New York copper hit the highest closing record. Silver hit an 11-year high and reached 31 US dollars. Lunn nickel rose more than 11% in a single week

Due to improved interest rate cut expectations from the European and American central banks, the price of gold rose for two weeks and surged by nearly 2% this week. The price of silver surged 11% this week, and platinum, which faces a continuous structural supply deficit, rose nearly 9% this week and hit a one-year high.

COMEX's June futures closed up $31.90, or 1.3%, to close at $2417.40 per ounce on Friday, the highest closing in history. The July silver quarter rose 1.38 US dollars, or 4.6%, to close at 31.26 US dollars/ounce, the highest since February 8, 2013.

On Friday, spot silver rose 6.4% to 31.51 US dollars/ounce, and futures rose 6.3% to 31.77 US dollars/ounce. They all broke through $30 per ounce for the first time in more than 10 years, and continued to break through the highest level since February 2013 during the day, driving the iShares silver ETF to rise 6.4% to the highest in 11 years. At night, the main futures contract of the Bank of Shanghai Futures broke through 8,000 yuan/kg, up more than 5%.

Spot gold rose as high as 1.8% or more than $42. Not only did it break the psychological threshold of 2,400 US dollars, but it also surged 2,420 US dollars, hitting a new high in the monthly market since April 12. At that time, the price of gold reached a record high of over 2,431 US dollars.

Against the backdrop of safe-haven demand, supply chain disruptions, and strong financial and industrial demand, silver prices are rising even more rapidly than gold. Since the beginning of the year, silver has surged more than 31%, surpassing the 17% increase in gold, making it one of the best-performing major commodities this year.

Industrial basic metals are generally rising in London:

The economic weather vane “Dr. Copper” closed up 2.3% on Friday, standing above the $10,000 integer psychological threshold, with a cumulative increase of 6.6% throughout the week. COMEX New York copper closed up 3.6% to $5.05 per pound in July, the highest closing in history.

Due to riots affecting production in the world's third-largest nickel producer, Lunnickel rose nearly 1,300 US dollars or 6.5% on Friday, breaking the two barriers of 20,000 and 21,000 US dollars one after another, rising more than 11% throughout the week.

Lunan aluminum rose 1% and rose above 2,600 US dollars, up 3.2% throughout the week. Lunzinc rose 2.4% and rose above $3,000, up 3.5% throughout the week. Lun lead, which fell slightly on Friday, rose 2.8% throughout the week. Renxi rose 1.6% to break above US$34,000 and rose 6.7% throughout the week.

In addition, most major domestic futures contracts rose at night, with soda ash up about 4.8%, LPG up 2.4%, styrene up 2.2%, and iron ore up 0.4%. Alumina rose more than 4.2% at night, Shanghai Nickel rose more than 3.4%, Shanghai Bank closed up more than 6%, and Shanghai Gold rose 1.6%.

editor/tolk