Individual Investor Gyokusuke Limited: Stock selection should focus on basic performance! Pay attention to stocks that have moved recently [FISCO Social Reporter]

Fisco Japan · May 18 09:00

以下は、フィスコソーシャルレポーターの個人投資家「有限亭玉介」氏（ブログ：儲かる株情報「猫旦那のお株は天井知らず」）が執筆したコメントです。フィスコでは、情報を積極的に発信する個人の方と連携し、より多様な情報を投資家の皆様に向けて発信することに努めております。

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※2024年5月13日14時に執筆

4月の米雇用統計での景気悪化を受けて年内利下げ期待が高まっております。「今回こそ期待が確信に変わるのか…」なんて、これまで幾度もFRBに振り回されている相場なのですから、慎重に見据えないといけませんな。ただ、もしそうともなれば、日経平均はすぐに4万円に戻す程のインパクトはありそうです。

改めまして株＆猫ブログ「儲かる株情報『猫旦那のお株は天井知らず』」を執筆しております、有限亭玉介と申します。

5月の決算が一通り出揃って、国内の株式市場が再び強気に戻ろうという気概を感じますな。やはり決算発表が好業績の銘柄はしっかりと物色されていると言えるのではないでしょうか。調整を経て再び日本株が強気転換する条件が整ってきました。

株式市場を左右する一番の要因と言える米金利に関しては、パウエル議長はFOMCにて「予想外に労働市場が弱まった場合、対応（利下げ）の用意がある」と発言しているように年内には利下げが実施されるとの期待が高まっております。次のFOMCは6月11日・12日に開催ですので、その前の雇用統計には投資家は敏感に反応するはずです。

6月の雇用統計が市場予想を下回った場合、利下げのタイミングに備えて強気転換へ向かう地ならしが始まると予想されます。日本の景気も気になるところですが、日銀や岸田政権の動きは投資家からは今のところ関心が低いように感じますねぇ。日銀の植田総裁は、かねてより利上げへ向かうように手はずを整えている事は認識しておきたいところです。

さて、外部環境や政策変更のタイミングはイチ投資家ごときが操る事はできませんが、企業の業績を参考に未来の株価予想を立てるのは可能です。決算シーズンを通過して基本に立ち返って好業績の銘柄を改めて注視していきたいもんですな。

例えば音響機器関連事業で知られるノーリツ鋼機＜7744＞は5月10日の上方修正の決算が好感されて急騰していましたね。チャートは保ち合いから上放れてきている事に加え、PBRにも割安感がある事から見ています。また、同日の最高益更新＆増配の決算で急騰していたヨネックス＜7906＞は、「世界のYONEX」としても海外投資家から人気が出そうなので注目中です。

その前の4月22日に上方修正を発表したFinatext HD＜4419＞は、75日線付近から反発を確認しております。保険・証券向けにクラウドシステムを提供する同社は、インフレの思惑から物色される可能性もありそうですな。

PBR1倍割れで思惑のある日本鋳鉄管＜5612＞は、4月26日の決算発表もしっかり好業績で着地しました。チャート(日足)もじわじわと上昇トレンドを形成しておりますな。高配当・好業績のまま年初来高値をどこまで更新できるのか監視を強めていきたいです。

アルミ総合メーカーのUACJ＜5741＞も上昇トレンドで直近で年初来高値を更新しました。銅相場の上昇を受けて、他の非鉄金属への思惑買いが流入している模様。業績も堅調で、5月13日の決算発表後も上昇トレンドをキープできるか監視中です。

包装機器大手の東京自働機械製作所＜6360＞は、4月26日の上方修正が好感されて急動意しました。生産性の改善で利益が伸長したとの事。昨年7月に付けた高値3420円を上回った後、高値圏を維持できるか注視したいです。PER・PBRが割安水準である点も、思惑買いが入る可能性があるか。

最後は中古車オートクレジットや自動車修理保証事業を展開するプレミアグループ＜7199＞です。25年3月期は過去最高益となる見通しで、チャート(日足)も年初来高値を更新しました。中古車市場の好調は、今年も続くのか注視しております。

さて、ちょっとお話が長くなりましたが、あたくしのブログではそんな「今強含んでいる個別株・テーマ株」を紹介しています。お暇があれば覗いてみてやってください。愛猫「アル」と共にお待ち申し上げております。

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執筆者名：有限亭玉介

ブログ名：猫旦那のお株は天井知らず

Below is a comment written by FISCO Social Reporter's individual investor “Tamasuke Limited” (blog: Profitable Stock Information “Cat Husband's Stock Knows No Ceiling”). FISCO is working to disseminate more diverse information to investors by cooperating with individuals who actively disseminate information.

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※Written at 14:00 on 2024/5/13

Expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have increased in response to economic deterioration according to US employment statistics for April. “Will expectations change to conviction this time...” is a market that has been swayed by the Fed many times until now, so we have to keep an eye on it carefully. However, if that were the case, the impact would be such that the Nikkei Average would soon return to 40,000 yen.

Once again, my name is Kyusuke Limited, and I'm writing the stock & cat blog “Profitable Stock Information “Cat Husband's Stock Knows No Ceiling”.

The financial results for May have all been completed, and I feel that the domestic stock market is about to return to bullish again. After all, I think it can be said that stocks that have announced financial results and performed well have been thoroughly scouted. After adjustments, conditions have been put in place for Japanese stocks to turn bullish again.

Regarding US interest rates, which can be said to be the biggest factor affecting the stock market, expectations are growing that interest rate cuts will be implemented by the end of the year, as Chairman Powell stated in the FOMC that “if the labor market weakens unexpectedly, there are preparations to respond (interest rate cuts).” The next FOMC will be held on 6/11 and 12, so investors should respond sensitively to the employment statistics before that.

If employment statistics for June fall short of market expectations, it is expected that ground preparation for a bullish shift will begin in preparation for the timing of interest rate cuts. I'm also concerned about the Japanese economy, but I feel that investors are not interested in the Bank of Japan and the Kishida administration's movements so far. I want to be aware that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been preparing to move towards raising interest rates for some time.

Now, although investors cannot manipulate the external environment or the timing of policy changes, it is possible to make future stock price predictions by referring to corporate performance. I want to go through the financial results season, go back to basics, and keep a close eye on high-performing stocks again.

For example, Noritz Steel (7744), which is known for its sound equipment related business, was rapidly soaring because the financial results of the upward revision on 5/10 were well received. In addition to the fact that the chart is showing up from a balance, I'm looking at it because PBR also has a sense of cheapness. Also, Yonex (7906), which had skyrocketed due to the highest profit update and dividend increase settlement on the same day, seems to be popular with overseas investors as the “world's YONEX,” so attention is being paid.

Prior to that, Finatext HD ＜4419＞, which announced an upward correction on 4/22, confirmed a rebound from near the 75th line. It seems likely that companies that provide cloud systems for insurance and securities will be targeted due to speculations about inflation.

The Japanese cast iron pipe ＜5612＞, which has been split by 1 times PBR, landed well with solid results even when the financial results were announced on 4/26. The chart (daily chart) is also slowly forming an upward trend. I would like to strengthen surveillance to see how far year-to-date high prices can be updated while maintaining high dividends and good performance.

UACJ (5741), a comprehensive aluminum manufacturer, has also recently updated its year-to-date high due to an upward trend. It seems that speculative purchases into other non-ferrous metals are flowing in in response to the rise in copper prices. Business performance is also strong, and we are monitoring whether the upward trend can be maintained even after financial results were announced on 5/13.

Tokyo Automatic Machinery Works (6360), a major packaging equipment company, was well received by the April 26 upward revision and made a sudden move. It is said that profits increased due to improved productivity. I would like to keep a close eye on whether we can maintain the high price range after surpassing the high price of 3420 yen set in July last year. Is there a possibility that speculative purchases will occur even if PER and PBR are at a bargain level?

Finally, there is Premier Group ＜7199＞, which develops used car auto credit and auto repair guarantee businesses. The fiscal year ending 25/3 is expected to be a record high, and the chart (daily chart) also hit a year-to-date high. We are watching closely to see if the strong performance in the used car market will continue this year.

Well, I've been talking a bit long, but my blog introduces such “individual stocks and theme stocks that are strong now.” If you have free time, please take a look. We look forward to seeing you with our beloved cat “Al.”

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Author's name: Gyokusuke Kotei

Blog name: Cat Husband's Stock Knows No Ceiling

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

個人投資家・有限亭玉介：銘柄選びは基本の業績重視でいくべし！直近で動いてきた株に注目【FISCOソーシャルレポーター】

Individual Investor Gyokusuke Limited: Stock selection should focus on basic performance! Pay attention to stocks that have moved recently [FISCO Social Reporter]

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