瓷砖销量逆势微增，经销渠道加速开拓。房地产市场回落，下游需求收缩，瓷砖行业进入缩量竞争时代，行业整体开窑率延续22 年下降趋势，23 年全国实现陶瓷砖产量67.3 亿平方米，同比-8.0%。分产品看，23 年公司瓷质有釉砖/非瓷质有釉砖/陶瓷板、薄型陶瓷砖分别实现收入45.2/5.5/6.9 亿元，同比+1.6%/-23.2%/-6.8%；毛利率30.7%/19.8%/31.0%，同比+6.9/+4.6/+1.4pct。分渠道看，公司加快渠道下沉，大力发展装企、新零售等渠道建设，积极与各大装饰公司建立深度合作关系，经销/战略工程渠道分别实现收入38.3/20.9 亿元，同比+6.2%/-20.2%，毛利率28.3%/31.7%，同比+6.5/+5.6pct；经销渠道占比达到64.6%。24Q1，高基数下公司收入承压，但经销渠道收入占比进一步提升到71.2%，我们预计随着公司全渠道营销战略推进，家装和新零售渠道有望持续贡献增量。Matters:
The company released the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In '23, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, -4.9% year on year, net profit to mother of 270 million yuan, reversal of losses over the previous year, after deducting net profit of 240 million yuan from non-return to mother, reversing the loss year on year. The 24Q1 company achieved revenue of 8.2 billion yuan, -25.7% year on year, net profit to mother of 0.1 billion yuan, +39.6% year on year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.1 billion yuan, +32.3% year on year.
Commentary:
Ceramic tile sales bucked the trend and increased slightly, and distribution channels were developed at an accelerated pace. The real estate market has declined, downstream demand has shrunk, and the ceramic tile industry has entered an era of shrinking competition. The overall kiln rate of the industry continued to decline in '22. In '23, the country achieved 6.73 billion square meters of ceramic tile production, -8.0% over the same period last year. By product, the company achieved revenue of 45.2/5.5/690 million yuan for porcelain glazed tiles/non-porcelain glazed tiles and thin ceramic tiles in '23, respectively, or +1.6%/-23.2%/-6.8%; gross profit margin was 30.7%/19.8%/31.0%, +6.9/+4.6/+1.4pct year on year. By channel, the company accelerated channel decline, vigorously developed channel construction such as equipment enterprises and new retail, and actively established deep cooperative relationships with major decoration companies. The distribution/strategic engineering channels each achieved revenue of 38.3/2.09 billion yuan, +6.2%/-20.2% YoY, and a gross profit margin of 28.3%/31.7%, +6.5/+5.6pct; the proportion of distribution channels reached 64.6%. In 24Q1, the company's revenue was under pressure from the high base, but the share of sales channel revenue increased further to 71.2%. We expect that as the company's omnichannel marketing strategy progresses, home improvement and new retail channels are expected to continue to contribute.
Cost reduction and efficiency improved profits, and Q1 cost disturbances dragged down profits. 1) In '23, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 29.5%, +5.9pct, or the main company continued to promote cost reduction and efficiency, boosting profit results. In '24, the company's four production bases in Foshan, Qingyuan, Tengxian, and Gao'an are expected to continue to focus on improving quality, reducing consumption, and reducing cost and efficiency. On the expense side, the company achieved a sales/management/finance expense ratio of 6.4%/7.6%/1.5%, -1.9/+0.5/+0.3 pct year over year; the comprehensive impact on the company's net interest rate to mother was +10.6pct to 4.5%. In terms of cash flow, the company achieved net operating cash flow of 9.3 billion yuan in '23, +55.1% year-on-year. 2) In 24Q1, the company achieved gross profit margin of 26.5%, +2.0pct/month-on-month, net profit margin increased slightly by 0.6pct to 1.2% year over year, or mainly management expenses ratio +3.0pct to 11.9%,
Industry concentration may increase at an accelerated pace, and actively explore new channel growth. The country clearly requires that in principle, fields such as sanitary ceramics for construction should complete technological transformation or be phased out before the end of 2025, so small and medium-sized enterprises that lack cost advantages and competitiveness may face accelerated clearance. Meanwhile, the company is a leader in the ceramic tile industry. The omni-channel network layout is perfect, and it continues to explore the growth of home improvement and new retail channels; its three brands, “Mona Lisa Tiles,” “QD Tiles,” and “Merci,” are clearly positioned and misplaced, and are expected to buck the trend and increase in share.
Investment advice: Considering that competition in the ceramic tile industry is still fierce in the short term, we expect net profit to be 4.24/4.68/566 million yuan in 24-26 (original value of 6.74/810 million yuan in 24-25 years), corresponding to the 24-26 PE of 11/10/9X. Referring to the relative valuation method, we will give 13 times PE in 24 years, give a target price of 13.29 yuan, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Production capacity falls short of expectations, heavy reliance on major engineering business customers delaying accounts, stricter policies, etc.
