① A number of banks said that the 30-year special treasury bonds sold on May 17 are only sold to financial institutions in the counter market and are currently not open to individual investors; ② According to the arrangement, the 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be distributed until May 20. They will be listed and traded on May 22, and subsequent investors can purchase them at the bank that obtained the target.
Finance Association, May 17 (Reporter Cao Yunyi) On May 17, ultra-long-term treasury bonds were first issued. A CFA reporter learned from several banks that currently, ultra-long-term treasury bonds are mainly aimed at institutional investors and are not yet open to individual investors.
Staff at a major state-owned bank said that according to the plan, if the bank wins the bid, it will plan to sell the first ultra-long-term special treasury bonds starting on the 20th. However, some bank staff said that they have not been notified yet and are uncertain when they will be able to open up purchases. According to the arrangement, the 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bond will be distributed until May 20, and the listing transaction will begin on May 22. Subsequent investors can purchase the target bank.
Many industry insiders believe that the issuance target for this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has not yet been determined. In order to ensure smooth issuance and at the same time further provide residents with high-quality assets, it is likely that the issuer will also encourage individual purchases. For individual investors, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are issued by the Ministry of Finance, so individual investors can obtain safe and stable long-term investment returns. However, if market interest rates on ultra-long-term treasury bonds rise in the future, there may be potential interest rate risks.
Ultra long-term treasury bonds are currently only open to institutions
According to the Ministry of Finance's arrangement, the 1 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special treasury bonds planned to be issued this year are divided into three types: 20-, 30-, and 50-year. Among them, the 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be publicly tendered for the first time today. The interest payment method is to pay interest on a semi-annual basis. The current treasury bonds are fixed-interest interest-bearing bonds, totaling 40 billion yuan. The coupon rate will be determined this morning after a competitive tender by an underwriting group of 56 financial institutions.
Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are bookkeeping treasury bonds. Individuals and institutions can circulate and transfer them at bank counters, online platforms, and securities markets. However, the Financial Services Association reporter learned from several banks today that quotas are not yet open to individual investors.
“If you want to buy ultra-long-term treasury bonds, we need to report the amount to the branch to understand the customer's purchase intentions and needs. However, the latest information I got is that currently there are relatively few individuals who want to buy ultra-long-term treasury bonds, so our bank doesn't sell them on behalf of them.” The financial manager of a joint stock bank in Shanghai told the Financial Federation reporter today.
A number of banks also said they are currently only open to institutions. The financial manager of a state-owned bank told the Financial Federation reporter: “We are currently not open to individual investors. The 30-year special treasury bonds sold on May 17 are only sold to financial institutions on the counter market. We have yet to be notified when individual investor quotas will be opened.”
Another financial manager at a state-owned bank said, “At first, I thought individual investors could buy ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and many people came to inquire. However, we recently received a notice clarifying the sales quota for institutions and companies only. Currently, the Bank does not provide personal investment channels.”
Lian Ping, director of the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute and chief economist, believes that judging from past experience, 1998 special treasury bonds were issued to institutions in a targeted manner, while 2020 special anti-epidemic treasury bonds clearly encouraged individuals and micro, small and medium-sized enterprise investors to subscribe. In order to promote the smooth issuance of this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, it is recommended that consideration be given to issuing them to institutions and individuals at the same time. Of course, the issuers of specific bond batches can be appropriately focused and distinguished.
Many industry insiders believe that the issuance target for this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has not yet been determined. In order to ensure smooth issuance and at the same time further provide residents with high-quality assets, it is likely that the issuer will also encourage individual purchases. For individual investors, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are issued by the Ministry of Finance, so individual investors can obtain safe and stable long-term investment returns. However, if market interest rates on ultra-long-term treasury bonds rise in the future, there may be potential interest rate risks.
Banks: Arrange sales interest rates starting on the 20th or 2.5%-3%
According to a notice from the Ministry of Finance, the tender for the current treasury bonds will be distributed until May 20, 2024, and listed and traded on May 22. Subsequent investors can purchase the target bank.
Staff at a major state-owned bank said that according to the plan, if the bank wins the bid, it will plan to sell the first ultra-long-term special treasury bonds starting on the 20th. However, some bank staff said that they have not been notified yet and are uncertain when they will be able to open up purchases.
In addition to banks, Tian Lihui, dean of the Financial Development Research Institute at Nankai University, said that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds can also be circulated and transferred in the secondary market. The secondary market is often a platform for stock exchanges, where trading can be carried out more conveniently. Banks also provide some agency services, but stock exchanges are more directly aimed at investors who want to obtain second-hand treasury bonds.
The market believes that the future supply of ultra-long treasury bonds may become a new normal. According to the Ministry of Finance's arrangement, ultra-long-term treasury bonds of 1 trillion yuan will be issued in multiple installments. The issuance will be smooth from May to November, mainly in the third quarter. Lengthening the issuance cycle in terms of supply can reduce the impact on short-term supply in the market and smooth out market interest rate fluctuations. In the future, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, earmarked for the implementation of the country's major strategies and security capacity building in key areas.
In terms of interest rates, the Tianfeng Securities fixed income team believes that according to the current macroeconomic policy, the problem of insufficient effective demand may continue for some time, and the impact of subsequent supply on the bond market is expected to be within the scope of local friction. Maintain the judgment of 30-year treasury bonds in the 2.4% to 2.6% range.
Another market source analyzed that as the People's Bank of China incorporates treasury bond trading into the open market's routine operation tool in the future, it can adjust market supply and demand through treasury bond trading, which will also promote the smooth operation of yield. Judging from the normal operation of the market in recent years, 2.5% to 3% is probably a reasonable range for long-term treasury bond yields.