New investment points
The company released the 2023 annual report and the first quarter report of 2024. In 2023, the company's total revenue fell 5.2% year on year to 44.98 billion yuan, and net profit to mother increased 9.6% year over year to 1.63 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's total revenue increased 6.5% year on year to 11.16 billion yuan, and net profit to mother increased 15.0% year on year to 410 million yuan.
Improve service quality and increase business. Since October 2023, the “cumulative effect” of the company's ability to continuously improve service timeliness and service quality has been accelerated. The share of packages on core platforms has continued to increase, the number of advantageous customers has further increased, and the proportion of high-quality packages and loose orders has continued to expand, driving the company's business volume to increase by more than 30% year-on-year for two consecutive months in November-December. The company achieved an express delivery business volume of 18.85 billion units in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and a market share of 14.3%; then, in the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved 4.94 billion units of express delivery business, an increase of 29.1% year-on-year (the express delivery business volume of the industry grew by 25.2% year-on-year during the same period).
Reduce fees and increase efficiency, and operate digitally intelligently. In 2023, the company's management flexibly adjusted its business strategy, fully exploited the advantages of digitalization and core assets, and fully implemented various refined management measures. In 2023, the company's single ticket core operating cost decreased 11.2% year on year to 0.87 yuan. Among them, single ticket transportation costs decreased 17.3% to 0.50 yuan year on year, and single ticket transit costs decreased 1.1% year on year to 0.37 yuan year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's core operating cost per ticket decreased by 24.0% year-on-year to 0.76 yuan. In the future, as the company's business scale expands, cost control measures will continue to take effect. At the same time, the company implemented a focused strategy to rationally reduce and optimize diversified businesses and allocated resources. The company's four expenses (sales, management, R&D and financial expenses) decreased by 16.1% and 8.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, and cost control was effectively improved.
valuations
We expect the company's 24/25 revenue to be 504.2/54.81 billion yuan, and an additional 26-year forecast of 59.71 billion yuan; the company's net profit for 24/25 is estimated to be 19.7/2.31 billion yuan, and the additional 26-year forecast is 2.67 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a 24-year PE of 12 times, maintaining a “stronger than the market” rating.
Risk warning
Customer demand falls short of expectations, and industry competition increases risk