The company announced FY24Q4 (calendar year 24Q1) results. Revenue increased 7% year on year to 221.9 billion yuan, adjusted EBITA was 24 billion yuan, down 5% year on year, mainly affected by increased investment in major businesses such as Taotian, international retail, and Cainiao; the adjusted EBITA margin was 10.8%.
The company approved FY24's cash dividend of US$4 billion and stated that the dual major listing of Hong Kong stocks is expected to be completed in CY24M8.
Taotian Group: FY24Q4 Taotian Group achieved a 4% year-on-year increase in revenue to 93.2 billion yuan, a double-digit increase in GMV. CMR revenue increased 5% year over year, and the decline in the take-rate may be affected by Taobao GMV's increased contribution. Follow up on the impact of the increase in the penetration rate of promotion tools across the site.
Cloud Intelligence Group: FY24Q4 Cloud Intelligence Group achieved a 3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 25.6 billion yuan, adjusted EBITA increased 45% year-on-year to 1.4 billion yuan, and AI-related revenue achieved a three-digit year-on-year increase. According to the company's performance report, 24Q1 will increase the adoption rate of public clouds and actively reduce revenue from project-based contracts with low profit margins, and is expected to achieve double-digit growth in FY25H2.
International business: FY24Q4 international business achieved a 45% year-on-year increase in revenue to 27.4 billion yuan, mainly due to the rapid growth of AliExpress orders (the 24M4Choice model accounts for 70% of AliExpress's total order volume). The year-over-year increase in losses was mainly due to increased investment in AE Choice and Trendyol, which was partially offset by improved monetization rates.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Alibaba's non-GAAP net profit for FY2025-2027 is estimated to be RMB 1606/1901/221.2 billion, respectively. Based on SOTP, FY2024 Chinese commercial profits are valued at 6X PE, and cloud computing revenue is valued at 3X PS, corresponding to the reasonable value of US stocks of 99.17 US dollars/ADS and 96.84 HKD/share of Hong Kong stocks, all maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Industry competition intensifies; consumer sentiment weakens; industry price war escalates, etc.